2020 Masters Sleepers and Longshot Picks

Augusta National

Rickie Fowler is still looking to capture his first career Major Championship. Photo by @bubbawatson (Twitter).

  • The most prestigious golf tournament of the year tees off Thursday (Nov. 12) at Augusta National Golf Club, in Augusta, GA
  • Rickie Fowler has finished 9th, 2nd and 11th in his past three trips to the Masters
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

Masters week is finally here, and even though the current state of the world will prevent us from a traditional Augusta experience, it’s still going to be an amazing feeling to wake up Thursday morning and take in the beauty that is Augusta National Golf Club.

Carlos Ortiz continued the 2020-21 PGA Tour longshot trend by winning the Houston Open as a 130-1 sleeper before the tournament started, and we’ll be looking for our own diamond in the rough among the 92-man field.

Over the years, course history has been one of the strongest predictors for success at the Masters, as the unique course truly takes multiple appearances to feel comfortable at. Since the first two Masters in 1934 and 1935, Fuzzy Zoeller is the only golfer to win the event in his inaugural appearance.

2020 Masters Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Rickie Fowler +7000 +500 +200
Paul Casey +8000 +550 +225
Lee Westwood +10000 +550 +225

Odds taken Nov. 9th at DraftKings.

As such, we’re going to be leaning heavily on course history, as well as off-the-tee, approach and around the green play.

One downside of the limited field is that oddsmakers have slashed top-10 and top-20 prices in the Masters odds. Last week for example, Sam Burns was a 100-1 longshot to win, and had +750 odds for a top-10 finish. This week however, Lee Westwood has the same outright odds as Burns did in Houston, but his top-10 price is much shorter at +550.

Rickie’s Course History Rock Solid

Our first longshot target is going to be Rickie Fowler, who has some of the best course history in the field over the past three years. He’s finished 9th, 2nd and 11th in his last three trips to Augusta, falling just a stroke short of a playoff in 2018.

Still searching for his first career Major victory, Fowler has come so close so many times. The 31-year-old owns 11 top-10 finishes at Majors, eight of which have been inside the top-five. He boasts one of the best short games on Tour, and has gained at least 7.1 total strokes (T2G, OTT, APP, ARG, P) on the field in four of his past five Masters appearances.

Pick: Rickie Fowler to win outright (+7000)

Can’t Quit Casey

I know at some point I’m going to have to quit Paul Casey but I just can’t seem to do it. His ball striking is just too good. Need proof? Check out his stats from the first two Majors of the season.

Paul Casey Strokes Gained – PGA Championship & US Open

US Open 8.2 2.6 4.7 0.9 0.1
PGA Championship 12.2 2.9 7.2 2.1 0.9

Of course, he didn’t make enough putts to win either event, but if he strikes it that well this week, he’ll surely have a chance to claim the Green Jacket on Sunday.

Success at Augusta National is nothing new to Casey, as he’s he finished T-10 or better on five different occasions. He missed the cut in 2019, but his previous four visits resulted in 15th, 6th, 4th, and 6th place finishes.

Pick: Paul Casey top-10 finish (+550)

Westwood Still Brings It

Even at 47-years-old Lee Westwood is still finding a way to compete with today’s young guns. He finished 13th at the US Open in September, and has been crushing it overseas.

He’s finished top-20 or better in six of his past eight starts, and won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship against a solid field in January.

His course history at Augusta is elite, as he’s racked up six top-eight finishes, five of which have come in his last eight appearances.

Westwood is also checking the box in the key statistical categories we’re looking at, ranking 20th off-the-tee, 35th on approach, and 17th around the green since the PGA Tour season resumed in June.

Pick: Lee Westwood top-20 finish (+225)

Additional Sleeper Picks for 2020 Masters

  1. Jordan Spieth (+7000): Regardless of his form, he’s always hovering around the first page of the leaderboard at this event. In addition to winning in 2015, he’s racked up a 2nd, 3rd, 11th and 21st place finish at Augusta.
  2. Justin Rose (+8000): Has performed incredibly well over the years at the Masters, posting five top-10 finishes, including a pair of runner-ups.
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Chris Amberley

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