2020 PGA Championship Picks and Odds

2020 PGA championship

Who’s the best bet to win the PGA at TPC Harding Park this week? Photo by @NebraskaPGA (Twitter)

  • The first major of the golf season heads to TPC Harding Park for the PGA Championship August 6th-9th
  • Brooks Koepka and WGC-St. Jude Invitational champion Justin Thomas open up as +1000 co-favorites
  • Weโ€™ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

It should come as no surprise that after Justin Thomasโ€™ WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational title, heโ€™d be a favorite to win the yearโ€™s first major at the PGA Championship. Heโ€™s co-favored with Brooks Koepka, who nearly beat Thomas this past weekend and is the two-time defending champion

Tiger Woods, who won at TPC Harding Park in 2005 and Rory McIlroy, who was victorious on this track in 2015 have faded down the board, with Rory at +1300 and Tiger +2800.

95 of the top 100 players in the world will tee it up at a course providing a plethora of storylines, such as Woods searching for career major #16, Koepka attempting to become the first golfer since Walter Hagen to win three PGAโ€™s in a row, and Jordan Spieth having another opportunity to complete the career grand slam.

2020 PGA Championship Odds

Golfer Odds at FanDuel
Brooks Koepka +1000
Justin Thomas +1000
Rory McIlroy +1300
Jon Rahm +1300
Bryson DeChambeau +1400
Dustin Johnson +2000
Xander Schauffele +2000
Webb Simpson +2300
Tiger Woods +2800
Patrick Cantlay +2800
Collin Morikawa +3000
Rickie Fowler +3300
Tony Finau +3500
Jordan Spieth +4000
Patrick Reed +4000
Jason Day +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Tyrrell Hatton +4000
Viktor Hovland +4000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +4200

Odds taken August 3rd

Justin Thomas Coming off Big Victory

Justin Thomas rallied from a four shot deficit on Sunday to claim his 13th career PGA Tour title โ€“ putting him in elite company among Tour pros. In doing so, he shook off his late collapse at the Workday Charity Open to become the third youngest player to notch that many victories.

The list of reasons why the 2017 PGA champion could double dip is lengthy with zero weaknesses in his game. He does only have one top-10 finish in his last seven major championships (T-6th at 2018 PGA), however.

That means the value at +1000 isnโ€™t particularly strong given that heโ€™s won just the one major in his career, giving me pause in going all-in on him.

Co-Favorite Koepka the Better Play

What a difference a week makes โ€“ before Koepka finished in a tie for second at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational he seemed lost with his game and still dealing with the lingering effects of a knee injury.

Now that heโ€™s woken up from hibernation, Iโ€™d feel more confident selecting him to take home a third straight Wanamaker trophy simply because of his dominant track record at majors.

What heโ€™s done in the last three years, and in particular the last five grand slam tournaments, has been absolutely astounding. No golfer in recent memory, and perhaps history has been able to wake up from a swoon to dominate when it matters most than the four-time major champ.

Brooks Koepkaโ€™s Last Five Major Championships

Tournament Result
2019 Open Championship T-4th
2019 US Open 2nd
2019 PGA Championship WIN
2019 Masters T-2nd
2018 PGA Championship WIN

How can you go against that track record, especially when you include his two US Open triumphs? At +1000, much like with Justin Thomas, youโ€™re not getting much value โ€“ but itโ€™s clear Koepka is the guy you can trust more.

2020 US Open Odds Tracker

Tiger Hasnโ€™t Played Enough Golf

As much as the sporting world would love to see Woods win his record-tying fifth career PGA title, itโ€™s just simply too tough to believe in a guy whoโ€™s played just once in an official tour event since February, a pedestrian tie for 40th at the Memorial.

In his previous tournament he finished dead last of those that made the cut at Riviera.

While he did have a thrilling victory in the WGC at Harding Park in 2005, and a perfect 5-0 record at the Presidentโ€™s Cup at this track in 2009, he just simply hasnโ€™t had the competitive reps to feel like a bet on +2800 odds is a prudent one.

Last 5 PGA Championship Winners

Year Winner
2019 Brooks Koepka
2018 Brooks Koepka
2017 Justin Thomas
2016 Jimmy Walker
2015 Jason Day

2020 PGA Championship Best Value Picks

  1. Dustin Johnson (+2000): Stuck on a criminally low one major title, but with a win four starts ago and a T-12th in Memphis last Sunday, too good to pass up at this price. Five career top-10โ€™s at the PGA, including a runner-up last year.
  2. Jason Day (+4000): Peaking at the right time, with T-6, T-4, T-7 results in last three tournaments. The 2015 PGA champ has made seven straight cuts at this major, with four top tens in that span and nothing worse than a T-23 showing. Second in strokes gained: around the green.
  3. Brendon Todd (+6500): Led the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational after 54 holes last weekend. Has two wins on tour this season and has led after 54 holes a tour-leading four times. Third in driving accuracy on the campaign. Fits the mold of less heralded PGA champions in recent years like Jimmy Walker, Keegan Bradley and Jason Dufner.
  4. Matthew Wolff (+10000): This is a deep dive with potential big upside. Finished runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last month and while heโ€™s never played a major before, has all the tools, as evidenced by his win at the 2019 3M Open in just his third professional start.
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Michael Harrison

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