Who’s the best bet to win the PGA at TPC Harding Park this week? Photo by @NebraskaPGA (Twitter)
- The first major of the golf season heads to TPC Harding Park for the PGA Championship August 6th-9th
- Brooks Koepka and WGC-St. Jude Invitational champion Justin Thomas open up as +1000 co-favorites
- We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below
It should come as no surprise that after Justin Thomas’ WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational title, he’d be a favorite to win the year’s first major at the PGA Championship. He’s co-favored with Brooks Koepka, who nearly beat Thomas this past weekend and is the two-time defending champion
Tiger Woods, who won at TPC Harding Park in 2005 and Rory McIlroy, who was victorious on this track in 2015 have faded down the board, with Rory at +1300 and Tiger +2800.
95 of the top 100 players in the world will tee it up at a course providing a plethora of storylines, such as Woods searching for career major #16, Koepka attempting to become the first golfer since Walter Hagen to win three PGA’s in a row, and Jordan Spieth having another opportunity to complete the career grand slam.
2020 PGA Championship Odds
|Golfer||Odds at FanDuel|
Odds taken August 3rd
Justin Thomas Coming off Big Victory
Justin Thomas rallied from a four shot deficit on Sunday to claim his 13th career PGA Tour title – putting him in elite company among Tour pros. In doing so, he shook off his late collapse at the Workday Charity Open to become the third youngest player to notch that many victories.
The youngest players to reach 13 wins.
1. Tiger Woods (23 years old)
2. Jack Nicklaus (25 years old)
3. Justin Thomas (27 years old) pic.twitter.com/mOm5hcDkZh
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 2, 2020
The list of reasons why the 2017 PGA champion could double dip is lengthy with zero weaknesses in his game. He does only have one top-10 finish in his last seven major championships (T-6th at 2018 PGA), however.
That means the value at +1000 isn’t particularly strong given that he’s won just the one major in his career, giving me pause in going all-in on him.
Co-Favorite Koepka the Better Play
What a difference a week makes – before Koepka finished in a tie for second at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational he seemed lost with his game and still dealing with the lingering effects of a knee injury.
Now that he’s woken up from hibernation, I’d feel more confident selecting him to take home a third straight Wanamaker trophy simply because of his dominant track record at majors.
Q. Brooks, you’ve always been one of the more confident guys going into majors. With the recent struggles, do you still carry that mindset?
BROOKS KOEPKA: I’m defending, aren’t I?
BROOKS KOEPKA: Okay. Just checking.
— Brian Wacker (@brianwacker1) July 29, 2020
What he’s done in the last three years, and in particular the last five grand slam tournaments, has been absolutely astounding. No golfer in recent memory, and perhaps history has been able to wake up from a swoon to dominate when it matters most than the four-time major champ.
Brooks Koepka’s Last Five Major Championships
|2019 Open Championship||T-4th|
|2019 US Open||2nd|
|2019 PGA Championship||WIN|
|2018 PGA Championship||WIN|
How can you go against that track record, especially when you include his two US Open triumphs? At +1000, much like with Justin Thomas, you’re not getting much value – but it’s clear Koepka is the guy you can trust more.
2020 US Open Odds Tracker
Tiger Hasn’t Played Enough Golf
As much as the sporting world would love to see Woods win his record-tying fifth career PGA title, it’s just simply too tough to believe in a guy who’s played just once in an official tour event since February, a pedestrian tie for 40th at the Memorial.
In his previous tournament he finished dead last of those that made the cut at Riviera.
🚨Via IG/ MrMichaelEaves
“.@TigerWoods getting in a full 18-hole practice round Sunday at @TPCHardingPark. #pgachamp” pic.twitter.com/0R6Ohmcs1U
— Tiger Woods Legion (@TWlegion) August 3, 2020
While he did have a thrilling victory in the WGC at Harding Park in 2005, and a perfect 5-0 record at the President’s Cup at this track in 2009, he just simply hasn’t had the competitive reps to feel like a bet on +2800 odds is a prudent one.
Last 5 PGA Championship Winners
2020 PGA Championship Best Value Picks
- Dustin Johnson (+2000): Stuck on a criminally low one major title, but with a win four starts ago and a T-12th in Memphis last Sunday, too good to pass up at this price. Five career top-10’s at the PGA, including a runner-up last year.
- Jason Day (+4000): Peaking at the right time, with T-6, T-4, T-7 results in last three tournaments. The 2015 PGA champ has made seven straight cuts at this major, with four top tens in that span and nothing worse than a T-23 showing. Second in strokes gained: around the green.
- Brendon Todd (+6500): Led the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational after 54 holes last weekend. Has two wins on tour this season and has led after 54 holes a tour-leading four times. Third in driving accuracy on the campaign. Fits the mold of less heralded PGA champions in recent years like Jimmy Walker, Keegan Bradley and Jason Dufner.
- Matthew Wolff (+10000): This is a deep dive with potential big upside. Finished runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last month and while he’s never played a major before, has all the tools, as evidenced by his win at the 2019 3M Open in just his third professional start.
Michael “Hound Dog” Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statisitician for the Jay and Dan Show. He has worked at TSN for over 13 years, where he’s been featured on Sportscentre, That’s Hockey, That’s Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.