2020 PGA Championship Round 4 Odds and Betting Preview

Dustin Johnson is in position to win his second career Major at the PGA Championship on Sunday. Photo by @SFnewsnow (Twitter).

  • Dustin Johnson leads the PGA Championship after 54-holes by one stroke over Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Champ
  • Two-time defending champion Brooks Koepka is just two shots back
  • See the updated live odds at TPC Harding Park heading into Sunday’s final round

Saturday was moving day at the PGA Championship, and no one made a bigger move than Dustin Johnson. The 2016 US Open champion erased a four-stroke deficit by carding eight birdies en route to a 5-under-par round of 65.

DJ will take a one stroke lead over Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Champ into Sunday’s final round at TPC Harding Park, but two-time defending champion Brooks Koepka is lurking just two shots back.

Live PGA Championship Odds

Golfer Position Score Odds at Draftkings
Dustin Johnson 1 -9 +250
Brooks Koepka T4 -7 +450
Cameron Champ T2 -8 +1000
Collin Morikawa T4 -7 +1100
Paul Casey T4 -7 +1200
Scottie Scheffler T2 -8 +1200
Jason Day T7 -6 +1400
Bryson Dechambeau T7 -6 +1400
Tommy Fleetwood T7 -6 +1400
Daniel Berger T7 -6 +1600
Justin Rose T7 -6 +2200
Xander Schauffele T13 -5 +2500

Odds taken Aug. 8th.

Last year at the PGA Championship at Bethpage Black, it was Johnson who finished runner-up to Koepka, marking the fourth time DJ has been a bridesmaid at a Major. Koepka had the shortest PGA Championship odds heading into the third round, while Johnson could have been had for +1400.

2020 Masters Odds Tracker

Top of the Board

Obviously DJ is the deserving favorite heading into Sunday, but as someone who has a pre-tournament outright position on him at +2200, I can’t say I’m super confident. Johnson’s ball striking has been adequate this week, ranking 30th in strokes gained approach and 21st in strokes gained off the tee, but where he’s done most of his damage is on the greens.

He made a 140 feet worth of putts on Saturday and has now gained 6.62 strokes putting through three rounds. With how volatile putting can be, that pace could regress, but the silver lining for DJ backers is that we’ve seen him ride a hot putter to victory before. Back in June, he gained 6 strokes putting in a win at the Travellers, and at last year’s WGC Mexico, he gained 8.5 strokes on the green en route to victory.

The big difference between those two events and this one is that Johnson also managed to gain 6 strokes on approach at the Travellers and 7.9 with his irons in Mexico. This week, he’s gained just 1.95 strokes on approach, a number that’s going to need to increase on Sunday if he wants to hold off Brooks.

Can Koepka 3-Peat?

There’s not a ton of value betting DJ at +250, but what about Koepka at +450? For the second week in a row he’s top-two in the field in strokes gained approach, and if his irons stay hot on Sunday, you have to think the putts are going to drop.

It’s an understatement to say Koepka saves his best golf for Majors, considering it barely looks like he’s trying at regular Tour events. He’s finished top-four in six of his past seven Major championships, a stretch that includes three wins and two runner-ups. There’s no better bet than Brooks at a Major, and if playing the top of the board that’s where I’d lean.

Best Live Value Picks at the PGA Championship

  1. Collin Morikawa (+1100): Tied DJ for the low round of the day on Saturday with a 65. One of the game’s best ball strikers, he sets up perfectly for this course and has arguably more experience than anyone at TPC Harding Park given how he attended college just down the road at Cal.
  2. Jason Day (+1400): A former winner of this event, Day leads the field in strokes gained approach this week, and ranks sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green. He’s fresh off three straight top-seven performances and was a trendy outright pick before the tournament started.
  3. Daniel Berger (+1600): It’s hard to argue anyone’s been better than Berger since the restart. He won the Charles Schwab, finished third at the RBC Heritage, and runner-up last week at the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He ranks second this week in ball striking and seventh in total strokes gained.
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Chris Amberley

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