2020 PGA Championship Sleepers and Longshot Picks

Adam Scott is a screaming value at +7000 odds to win the 102nd PGA Championship this week. Photo by @GolfCentral (Twitter).

  • A star studded field will tee it up Thursday at TPC Harding Park for the 102nd PGA Championship
  • Adam Scott has yet to play since the restart, but offers incredible value at +7000
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

Golf’s Major season is finally upon us. The 102nd PGA Championship tees off Thursday at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, a venue that is sure to offer a stern test to the game’s greats.

Not too much is known about this course, other than it is very demanding off the tee. The fairways are incredibly narrow and the rough is ankle deep. It features seven Par-4’s over 450 yards, meaning players with a very specific skill set are likely to do well here. Pure ball strikers are going to be coveted, especially ones who excel with their long irons. With that in mind, let’s try to identify the best longshot plays on the odds board.

102nd PGA Championship Odds

Golfer To Win Odds Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds at DraftKings
Adam Scott +7000 +1200 +600
Louis Oosthuizen +8500 +1200 +600
Chez Reavie +10000 +1600 +800

Odds taken Aug. 4th.

Scott’s Price is Outrageous

Right off the bat Adam Scott’s +7000 odds to win this tournament are outrageous. Sure, he’s hasn’t played since the restart, but the last time he took an extended break from Golf his return event went pretty well.

The former world No. 1 took eight weeks off between his win at the Australian PGA Championship in December and the Genesis in February, and he promptly showed up to Riviera and beat one of year’s best fields. He’s got arguably the prettiest swing in golf and as a result is one of the game’s top ball strikers. He’s gained strokes tee-to-green in 10 of his last 11 tournaments and ranks eighth in this field in strokes gained approach over the last 50 rounds.

As mentioned earlier, this course is full of extremely long holes so proximity from beyond 200 yards is going to be key. Scott ranks fourth in that category over the last 50 rounds, and finished 8th and 3rd in his last two PGA Championship appearances. He’s also been at the course for quite some time preparing, so there should be little worry about any potential rust.

Pick: Adam Scott to Win (+7000)

Louis Loves the Majors

If a few bounces had gone his way Louis Oosthuizen might have four or five career Major victories instead of only one. The South African won the Open Championship in 2010, and has finished runner-up in four separate Majors including this one in 2017.

He’s fresh off a 6th place finish at last week’s WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational, where he gained strokes across the board. He has seven-career top-10 finishes at Majors and he excels on difficult tracks, like he proved last week at TPC Southwind. For his career Oosthuizen gains a full stroke on the field on difficult courses, compared to just half a stroke on easy courses.

Pick: Louis Oosthuizen Top-10 Finish (+1200)

2020 Masters Odds Tracker

Reavie is Real Solid T-20 Value

Another player who played well last week was American Chez Reavie. The 38-year-old is coming off three straight quality showings (6th at last week’s WGC, 22nd at Memorial and 17th at the Workday Charity Open) and has finished inside the top-20 in back-to-back year’s at the PGA Championship.

He ranks 4th in this field in fairways gained over the past 50 rounds and 17th in proximity from 200+ yards. He gained 7.2 strokes on approach at the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and like Louis plays his best golf on difficult courses.

Pick: Chez Reavie Top-20 Finish (+600)

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Chris Amberley

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