2021 John Deere Classic 4th Round Odds, Picks and Preview


Sebastian Munoz acknowledges the crowd

Sebastian Munoz reacts after making his birdie putt on the 16th green during the third round of the John Deere Classic golf tournament, Saturday, July 10, 2021, at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Ill. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

  • Sebastian Munoz leads Brandon Hagy by one stroke heading into the Final Round of the John Deere Classic
  • Nine other golfers are within three shots of the lead, setting up for a wild Sunday at TPC Deere Run
  • See updated Final Round odds and analysis below, plus a few bets to target

Sunday at the John Deere Classic is shaping up to be a lot like last Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Sebastian Munoz is your 54-hole leader at -16, one stroke clear of Brandon Hagy, while nine other golfers are within three shots.

Last week in Detroit, Cam Davis emerged victorious from a three-man playoff, but a handful of golfers had a chance to pull away from the field on the back nine, which made for some very entertaining television. We should expect another action packed Final Round on Sunday, and considering how easy TPC Deere Run is playing this week, it’s going to take a very low round to secure the trophy.

Read on to see the updated John Deere Classic odds and the best bets heading into Sunday’s Final Round.

2021 John Deere Classic Live Odds

Golfer Position Score Odds at FanDuel
Sebastian Munoz 1st -16 +220
Brandon Hagy 2nd -15 +550
Kevin Na T-3rd -14 +800
Ryan Moore T-3rd -14 +900
Cameron Champ T-3rd -14 +1000
Adam Long T-3rd -14 +1200
Maverick McNealy T-8th -13 +1600
Scott Brown T-3rd -14 +1800
Jhonattan Vegas T-8th -13 +2000
Chez Reavie T-8th -13 +2200
Luke List T-8th -13 +2700
Lucas Glover T-12th -12 +3300

Odds as of July 10th.

Munoz Has Been Money

Starting at the top, it’s hard not to like Munoz. The Colombian, who owns one PGA Tour victory, has been striping it all week, and making almost everything on the greens. He leads the field through three rounds in strokes gained approach, while making 19 birdies and just three bogeys.

This will be the third time Munoz has taken the lead into a Final Round, and while he’s only closed out one of those tournaments, nothing about his game this week suggests he won’t be in the mix on the back nine. In addition to his strong approach game, he ranks 14th in strokes gained putting, 11th in scrambling, and 19th in driving distance.

The problem with betting him is his short odds. Golf is an incredibly volatile game, and there’s just too many guys within striking distance to justify laying +220 on Munoz. As a result, I suggest going a little bit further down the odds board to find your Final Round bets, because there is plenty of value there for the taking.

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2021 John Deere Classic Best Live Value Picks

  1. Maverick McNealy (+1600): Let’s start with Maverick McNealy. The 25-year-old is a birdie making machine, and has a history of charging from the back of the pack on Sundays. He ranks 10th this week in strokes gained approach, and 7th in strokes gained putting. After a disappointing Opening Round 71, he’s shot 64 and 65 over the past two days.
  2. Chez Reavie (+2200): Reavie is getting no respect at online sportsbooks, despite being one of the best iron players in the field. He’s gained at least 3.4 strokes on approach in three of his past four events coming in, and ranks 15th in that metric this week. The two-time winner on Tour opened the tournament with a 64 on Thursday so you know he has the firepower to go low, it’s just a matter of whether or not he can get the putter going.
  3. Russell Henley (+5000): Speaking of elite ball strikers, Russell Henley trails only Munoz in strokes gained approach this week and has a history of going low on Sundays at TPC Deere Run. Two years ago he fired a Final Round 61 to vault into second place.

 

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Chris Amberley

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