2021 PGA Championship 4th Round Odds, Picks and Preview


Mickelson swing in sandy rough

Phil Mickelson hits his second shot on the 16th hole from the rough during the third round at the PGA Championship golf tournament on the Ocean Course, Saturday, May 22, 2021, in Kiawah Island, S.C. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

  • Phil Mickelson leads the 103rd PGA Championship by one shot over Brooks Koepka after 3rd round play
  • Twelve golfers are within six shots of Mickelson’s lead with one round to go
  • See the updated odds at Kiawah Island, SC below for Sunday’s final round within the story below

Through 11 holes at Saturday’s PGA Championship, Phil Mickelson turned back the clock in his bid to become the oldest major champion ever at 50 years old. He was in cruise control, opening up a five shot lead and it looked like a win could become reality.

However, a bogey on 12, followed by a rinsed tee shot and double bogey on 13 opened the floodgates for the field. Mickelson was still able to hold onto top spot through 54 holes, but it’s a perilous one shot edge over 2018 and 2019 PGA winner Brooks Koepka.

Despite entering the tournament with uncertainty over knee surgery that forced him to miss time, Koepka had +4500 odds to secure his fifth major championship since 2017. Mickelson, meanwhile, was an extreme long shot at +20000 to win his second PGA Championship and sixth career major title. They both shot matching 2-under, 70’s on Saturday to ensure they’re in the final group on Sunday.

Should the final pairing falter, there are a plethora of golfers waiting to pounce, with 12 golfers within six strokes. Read on to see the updated PGA Championship odds and the best bets heading into Sunday’s final round.

Updated 2021 PGA Championship Odds

Golfer Position Score Odds at FanDuel
Brooks Koepka 2nd -6 +150
Phil Mickelson 1st -7 +300
Louis Oosthuizen 3rd -5 +600
Kevin Streelman 4th -4 +1600
Bryson DeChambeau T-7th -2 +1600
Branden Grace T-5th -3 +2700
Christiaan Bezuidenhout T-5th -3 +2700
Joaquin Niemann T-7th -2 +3300
Gary Woodland T-7th -2 +4100
Paul Casey T-10th -1 +6500
Corey Conners T-10th -1 +6500
Jordan Spieth T-13th Even +6500

Odds as of May 22nd at 8pm ET

Roll With Brooks Koepka

Even though it seems like Brooks Koepka hasn’t been his dominant self this week, he still finds himself just a shot back of Phil Mickelson. Koepka called his putting Saturday perhaps the worst of his career, but he’s the favorite to surpass Mickelson. Lefty is the fourth oldest 54-hole leader at a major championship, and none have gone on to close out the championship.

At the start of the week, we were bullish on Koepka’s chances to win his third PGA Championship in four years, and there’s no reason to think he won’t get it done again on Sunday.

Brooks Koepka’s Best PGA Championship Finishes

Year Result
2019 WIN
2018 WIN
2016 T-4th
2015 T-5th
2017 T-13th
2014 T-15th

Even though he’s been 38th in putting this week, Koepka has been a ball-striking savant, ranking first in strokes gained approaching the green, second tee-to-green and third in greens in regulation.

He’s also fifth in final round scoring average this season, so it’s hard to think he won’t get it done on the grandest stage again. Even though his odds are super low at +150, we’ve been on him all week and there’s no reason to deviate from that strategy.

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2021 PGA Championship Best Live Value Picks

  1. Branden Grace (+2700): This year’s Puerto Rico Open champion Branden Grace has rediscovered his game, and starts Sunday just four off the pace. He’s 13th in final round scoring average as well, so he’s not afraid of going low in crunch time. We were liking him as a darkhorse entering moving day, and he’s lurking. Third in SG: around the green and 10th in putting for the tournament. Has had brushes with emerging victorious at the PGA in the past, placing third and T-4th in 2015 and 2016.
  2. Gary Woodland (+4100): We were big on Woodland’s chances after round one, and he still finds himself squarely in the mix at T-7th. The 2019 US Open winner ranks fifth in SG: approaching the green, gaining over three strokes on the field in the first and third rounds in that category. Was sixth in his last start at the challenging Wells Fargo Championship. He also loves the PGA, having posted back-to-back top-10’s in 2018 and 2019.
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Michael Harrison

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