2021 US Open Odds and Picks


US Open

Rory McIlroy, of Northern Ireland, tees off on the third hole of the South Course during the first round of the Farmers Insurance golf tournament at Torrey Pines Golf Course Thursday, Jan. 28, 2021, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

  • The 121st US Open from Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, California tees off Thursday, June 17th
  • Jon Rahm is still the betting favorite despite just returning from COVID-19 isolation protocols
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

The third major championship of 2021 tees off from famed Torrey Pines as this track hosts the US Open for the first time since Tiger Woods’ epic victory in 2008.

Jon Rahm, who led the Memorial Tournament by six strokes through 54 holes before having to withdraw due to a positive COVID-19 test, is the +950 favorite to win his first career major title. Phil Mickelson, who won last month’s PGA Championship to become the oldest major champion ever, will tee it up in his attempt to complete the career grand slam.

Earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open at this golf course, Patrick Reed won amidst a rules controversy, and he’s among the favorites in his attempt to win his second career major. Bryson DeChambeau, who returns as defending champion from his win at Winged Foot last September, is also looking for major triumph number two.

156 golfers will tee it up, with many getting into the tournament through sectional qualifying. It plays to a par 71 as a US Open course (as opposed to typically being a par 72) and can reach up to 7,685 yards.

Read on to see US Open odds and the best bets for the third major championship of 2021.

2021 US Open Odds

Golfers Odds at FanDuel
Jon Rahm +950
Dustin Johnson +1500
Bryson DeChambeau +1600
Rory McIlroy +1800
Xander Schauffele +1800
Brooks Koepka +1800
Collin Morikawa +1900
Jordan Spieth +2100
Justin Thomas +2300
Viktor Hovland +2400
Patrick Cantlay +2400
Tony Finau +2400
Patrick Reed +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3400
Shane Lowry +3700
Scottie Scheffler +4100
Will Zalatoris +4100
Tyrrell Hatton +4200
Daniel Berger +4400
Justin Rose +4700

Odds as of June 14th

Brooks Koepka Dominates at the US Open

Even though Brooks Koepka is coming off a missed cut at the Palmetto Championship, it doesn’t matter with the four-time major champion. When majors roll around, he’s at his sharpest. Last month’s PGA Championship was a prime example, where he finished in a tie for second.

He also loves the US Open, having won it twice, and he’s been fantastic in his last six showings, where he’s been no worse than T-18th (he missed last year due to injury).

Brooks Koepka’s Best US Open Finishes

Year Result
2017 WIN
2018 WIN
2019 2nd
2014 T-4th

In his last twelve rounds on Tour, this year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open champion is fifth in SG: tee-to-green and tenth in total strokes gained.

Koepka has been a behemoth in the last 11 majors, racking up eight top-seven finishes. With +1800 odds to win outright, you’re getting him at better value than the top three players on the board, which is intriguing, given his propensity to dominate majors.

2021 US Open Odds Tracker

Tony Finau Searching for Elusive First Major

It is absolutely mind boggling that Tony Finau has only won once on the PGA Tour, given his amazing talent and the sheer number of close calls he’s had at big tournaments. He’s already had ten career top-10’s in majors, including a fifth place showing at the 2018 US Open and a T-8 last year. He’s also sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green on the campaign and seventh around the green.

Even though he has just one victory (2016 Puerto Rico Open), it feels like the time he busts through and wins it’ll be at a huge event. This is arguably his best shot, since he’s done everything but win at Torrey Pines the last five years.

Tony Finau’s Last Five Results at Torrey Pines

Year Result
2021 T-2nd
2020 T-6th
2019 T-13th
2018 T-6th
2017 T-4th

In the last 24 rounds at this track, he ranks second in both total strokes gained and SG: tee-to-green, seventh in short game and 19th in putting. That last stat is key, since usually the putter is what lets him down, but he’s performed well on these greens.

If you’re to make this wager at +2400 you know you’re going into it with your eyes wide open that he may yet again suffer a soul crushing loss, but this is Finau’s best chance to win at a course he really likes, with decent value.

Last Five US Open Winners

Year Winner
2020 Bryson DeChambeau
2019 Gary Woodland
2018 Brooks Koepka
2017 Brooks Koepka
2016 Dustin Johnson

2021 US Open Best Value Picks

  1. Shane Lowry (+3700): The 2019 Open champion has quietly been on a solid run, posting three top-10 finishes in his last four events, highlighted by a T-4 at last month’s PGA Championship. The tougher the course, the better Lowry plays, as evidenced by an eighth place showing at the Players Championship this year. In the last 24 rounds, he’s inside the top-15 in strokes gained tee-to-green, around the green and total strokes gained.
  2. Marc Leishman (+8500): This year’s Zurich Classic champion has had success at this venue, having won the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open. Recorded a top-five finish at the Masters in April for his sixth career top-10 at a major, which includes a runner-up at the 2015 Open Championship. Third in SG: approach in the last 24 rounds at this track, and tenth in total strokes gained.
  3. Branden Grace (+11000): A worthwhile flyer can be found with Branden Grace, who has been playing really solidly of late. In his last start at the Memorial Tournament, he ended up in fourth place. This year’s Puerto Rico Open champion was in the mix on the back nine at last month’s PGA Championship also. In 2015 and 2016 at this championship, Grace was T-4 and T-5.
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Michael Harrison

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