North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance holds a San Francisco 49ers jersey after being chosen by the team with the third pick in the NFL football draft, Thursday April 29, 2021, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)
- The Super Bowl odds of the San Francisco 49ers remained at +1200 after they selected North Dakota State QB Trey Lance 3rd overall in the NFL Draft.
- Lance is a long-term project, meaning it’s a virtual certainty that the Niners will stay with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting QB for the 2021 season
- Garoppolo led San Francisco to the Super Bowl in 2020
The San Francisco 49ers made a move for Trey Lance, but they didn’t move the needle on their 2022 championship price by doing so.
Entering Draft Day, the Niners were the third betting choice to win next season’s Super Bowl at a betting line of +1200. Currently, they still sit with odds of +1200.
2022 Super Bowl Odds
|Kansas City Chiefs||+500|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+700|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1200|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1300|
|Green Bay Packers||+1600|
|New England Patriots||+2500|
Odds as of April 29th at DraftKings.
Follow The Bouncing Odds
Once the 49ers traded up to get the #3 overall pick from the Miami Dolphins, everyone knew that they were in the market for a QB. It was which QB that remained a mystery right up to the moment that they called Lance’s name.
Originally, oddsmakers were heavily favoring Alabama’s Mac Jones to be the guy. Then, the betting line moved toward Ohio State’s Justin Fields. Almost as quickly, it shifted back toward Jones.
Kyle Shanahan finally drafts his QB 😱
The 49ers select NDSU QB Trey Lance with the No. 3 pick in the #NFLDraft @brgridiron pic.twitter.com/p0FuF4SV3K
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 30, 2021
On the final hours leading up to the draft, it was Lance who took over as the favorite to be selected by San Francisco. In hindsight, going for Lance is the move that probably makes the most sense.
San Fran is less than two years removed from being a Super Bowl team. They lost Super Bowl 54 by a 31-20 count to the Kansas City Chiefs. Inserting a rookie QB under center immediately isn’t what a contending team does.
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Lance Has Time To Learn
No football person views Lance as a bad pick. His upside offers potential that could make him the better pro in the long term than either Jones or Fields.
As for the 49ers brass, they guarded all information regarding who their pick might be like it was the Cadbury secret.
49ers did not tell their coaches or scouts their pick. They didn’t know the team was selecting Trey Lance until the pick was announced.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 30, 2021
By selecting Lance, the Niners are getting the best of both worlds. They will maintain Garoppolo as their starter for the time being, taking the pressure off Lance and giving him to time to grow and develop into an NFL QB.
While it’s definitely going to be a step up in competition for Lance, it’s not out of the question for FCS QBs to succeed in the NFL. Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz and yes, even Garoppolo have started for NFL teams that went to the Super Bowl.
Another Choice Might’ve Lengthened 49ers Super Bowl Odds
While it’s true that San Francisco’s Super Bowl odds remain unchanged, that might be a good sign. Currently, only last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Chiefs (+500) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+700) are at shorter betting lines than the Niners.
If the pick to had been Jones or Fields, speculation would’ve led to questions as to how quickly either might become the starter. That uncertainty likely would’ve caused San Francisco’s 2022 Super Bowl odds to lengthen.
San Fran’s 6-10 record in 2020 was much more to do with hard luck than hard times. Last season, the 49ers used injured reserve 32 times. They saw 22 players go on the COVID-19 protocol list.
New SF QB Trey Lance’s psychological tests for the 49ers were “off the charts”, per a source. The 49ers considered him the smartest quarterback in this draft class.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 30, 2021
Lance is clearly an investment for the future. For now, that means the Niners will stay with Garoppolo and he’ll get another chance to win them a title. It’s possible that San Francisco’s brass views the oft-injured Garoppolo in the same light as Alex Smith, another former Niners QB. He’s a solid game manager who can get a team so far, but isn’t the type of difference-maker that can take them all the way.
Lance is cut more from the mold of a Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Josh Allen, a dual threat who can win games with his arm or his legs.
With the uncertainty in Green Bay and the unlikelihood of a team repeating, San Francisco is as good a bet as any team to win the NFC in 2021.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.