After Press Conference, Trump’s Election Odds Remain +675


Donald Trump gesturing on stage

Donald Trump’s only hope to keep the White House appears to be longshot legal challenges to the outcomes in battleground states. Photo by Michael Vadon (creative commons.

  • Donald Trump doubled down on contesting the outcome of the 2020 election in several states
  • Oddsmakers donโ€™t give his efforts much of a chance
  • Joe Biden remains nearly a 90% favorite to win the White House

Thursday night, Donald Trump held a press conference at the White House at which he impugned the outcome of the election in several battleground states.

Oddsmakers clearly donโ€™t give him much of a chance to reverse the tide in the 2020 Presidential election. Joe Biden remains a -1272 favorite to win while Trumpโ€™s odds are a pessimistic +675, exactly where they were before the press conference.

Live 2020 Election Odds

Candidate Live Odds
Joe Biden -1272
Donald Trump +675

Odds represent the average across online sportsbooks as ofย  7:24 pm ET, Nov. 5th.

The implied probability of the odds, above, are roughly 87% for Biden and 13% for Trump.

Battleground States Going for Biden Late

Trumpโ€™s chances to win were sunk by mail-in ballots. In many battleground states โ€“ including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania โ€“ the mail-in ballots were mostly counted last.

As a result, on Election Day, Trump was ahead in virtually every battleground state save Minnesota until late, late in the night. His prospects looked so promising that his odds were as short as -500 at one sportsbook.

Biden’s Chances Keep Improving; Win Probability Nearing 90%

But the unprecedented number of mail-in ballots completely reversed the momentum. They are going to Biden and the Democrats by nearly a 70%-to-30% margin in some states, and by at least 60%-to-40% margin in all.

Biden was behind by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania before the state started counting roughly 1.2 million mail-in ballots. With 89% reporting, Trumpโ€™s lead is down to about 64,000 and shrinking by the hour.

What Is Trump Claiming?

Basically, Trump is claiming that Democrats have perpetrated widespread voter fraud in the states that didnโ€™t go his way.

There does not appear to be any foundation to his claims of fraud โ€“ at least not yet. Twitter has been shielding the public from his Tweets with the following message:

Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.

Trump believes that mail-in ballots have been illegally submitted after Election Day. He also seems to believe that thousands of ballots have been completely fabricated.

Major media outlets are almost universally maligning his claims as unfounded.

But with Trump so entrenched, itโ€™s unclear when the country will officially have a result to the 2020 Presidential election.

For bettors, that likely means wagers remaining unsettled for the foreseeable future.

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Sascha Paruk

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