Is Alex Smith a good bet to win the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year Award? Photo by Keith Allison (Wikimedia).
- Alex Smith has been out of action since November 2018 due to a broken fibula and tibia
- After 17 surgeries, Smith has finally been cleared to play
- Previously a +1400 bet to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, the Washington QB’s odds have improved to +300
The Washington Football Team got a big morale boost this week when Alex Smith returned to the practice field. The team’s former starting quarterback will compete for the job with second-year pro Dwayne Haskins and former Carolina Panther Kyle Allen.
If Smith wins back the job, it will be a feel-good story about overcoming long odds, and that’s a big reason why he is now the co-favorite in the odds to win Comeback Player of the Year. Narrative can play a big role with voters.
Is it worth it to place a bet on him?
2020 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
|Player||Odds at DraftKings|
|Alex Smith (Washington)||+300|
|Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)||+300|
|Cam Newton (Patriots)||+400|
|Matthew Stafford (Lions)||+800|
|JJ Watt (Texans)||+1000|
|Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)||+1100|
|Myles Garrett (Browns)||+1600|
|Derwin James (Chargers)||+1600|
|AJ Green (Bengals)||+2000|
|Todd Gurley (Falcons)||+2500|
|Baker Mayfield (Browns)||+2500|
|David Johnson (Texans)||+3000|
|Bradley Chubb (Broncos)||+3300|
|Nick Foles (Bears)||+3300|
|DeSean Jackson (Eagles)||+3300|
|Marcus Mariota (Raiders)||+3300|
|Antonio Brown (free agent)||+5000|
|Mitchell Trubisky (Bears)||+5000|
|Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)||+6600|
|Akiem Hicks (Bears)||+10000|
|Trent Williams (49ers)||+10000|
All odds taken July 18.
Smith’s Odds Improve As He Returns To Action
In 2018, when Smith suffered a compound fracture in his right leg – which led to sepsis nd 17 surgeries (several to save amputation) – many figured his career was over. Some doctors thought he’d never walk again, let alone get back to football. Through it all, though, Smith never contemplated retirement, and now he’s finally been cleared to play.
Almost 2 years after what was thought of as a career ending injury, Alex Smith’s family celebrate with him as he is cleared to return to football activities tomorrow pic.twitter.com/j5Q3AaFlu6
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) August 16, 2020
Last time we checked in on the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award odds, Smith was at +1400. Now that he has the green light to get back on the field, he’s shot up to co-favorite. However, at this point, we don’t even know if he’ll be the starting quarterback.
2020 NFL MVP Odds Tracker
Smith a Good Story, Not a Good Bet
One of the reasons why Smith has shot up the board is because he’s a feel-good story. ESPN did a documentary on him recently, which hit a lot of people in the feels. After seeing it, it’s hard not to root for the guy. Sometimes, these types of videos or viral campaigns are enough to earn player a sportsmanlike or comeback player-type of award.
Alex Smith is back on the field in Washington 👏
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) August 16, 2020
The time is not ideal, though. Had this documentary aired right before the award ceremony, that would help garner support. But it will be long forgotten come January 2021, meaning Smith is going to have to play, and play well, to earn the award. I’m not certain that’s going to happen.
The Redskins quarterback job should be Dwayne Haskins’ to lose. Washington has little to gain by going back to Smith. They have to see what they have in Haskins, a 2019 first-round pick who is only in the second year of his career.
Is it possible that Smith starts over him? Of course. The current regime didn’t draft Haskins. Even so, the best plan long-term is to see how high Haskins’ ceiling is before handing the reins to a recuperating vet.
Even if Smith gets under center, he’s going to be a in tough spot. The Redskins have questions along the offensive line and at virtually every skill position. Terry McLaurin looks like a good, young wide receiver, but what else do the quarterbacks here have to work with?
Washington quarterback Alex Smith will be cleared for football activity on Sunday, a source told @john_keim.
Smith broke his fibula and tibia in his right leg in November 2018 and needed 17 surgeries. pic.twitter.com/T0bengb3RO
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 16, 2020
Smith is in tough for this award as guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, J.J. Watt, and even Rob Gronkowski should deliver numbers. Maybe not all of them but at least one of the quarterbacks should be a 30-touchdown, 4000-yard passer. Smith has never thrown more than 26 touchdowns even when surrounded by better infrastructure.
At the end of the day, Smith is a good story but I don’t know if he’ll start and I don’t think he’ll produce the same type of passing numbers as some of the other players on this list. At +1400, I might think about taking a shot with him. As a co-favorite at +300, I don’t see any value here. I’d rather take a shot with Stafford at +800.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He’s interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O’Neal and Floyd Mayweather.