Russia’s Andrey Rublev hits a forehand to Norway’s Casper Ruud during their fourth round match at the Australian Open tennis championships in Melbourne, Australia, Monday, Feb. 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Hamish Blair)
- Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev meet Wednesday (Tuesday night in North America) in an Australian Open Quarterfinal
- The winner is likely to draw Rafael Nadal in the semifinals
- Read below to find what betting option provides the most value when these two up-and-comers square off
While it is very early in the year, perfection is always hard to maintain. Neither Andrey Rublev nor Daniil Medvedev have been beaten in 2021, and now they face off for the right to reach the Australian Open semifinals.
Both players caught a break in the fourth round. Rublev dominated Casper Ruud for two sets and then his opponent retired. Medvedev crushed overmatched American Mackenzie McDonald.
Let’s look closely at the quarterfinal battle and consider some of the betting opportunities.
Andrey Rublev vs Daniil Medvedev Odds
|Andrey Rublev||+4.5 games (-127)||+200||Over 39.5 games (-112)|
|Daniil Medvedev||-4.5 games (+100)||-265||Under 39.5 games (-114)|
All odds from DraftKings taken Feb. 15
Rublev vs Medvedev History
This is the fourth all-time meeting between these players and Medvedev has won the first three. Each victory has come in straight sets, including at the US Open quarterfinals in September.
Medvedev beat Rublev in St. Petersburg and Cincinnati in 2019. They met in a challenger event in 2016 and Medvedev won in straight sets.
Rublev vs Medvedev Head-to-Head Stats
|7||Career Singles Titles||9|
|0||Grand Slam Titles||0|
Rublev is Rolling
Through four matches Down Under, Rublev has yet to drop a set. Yannick Hanfmann, Thiago Monteiro, and Feliciano Lopez proved little resistance. He led Casper Ruud 6-2, 7-6, when his opponent was forced to throw in the towel because of an apparent stomach injury.
In addition to the four matches at the Australian Open, Rublev participated in the ATP Cup team event in Melbourne. He won all four of his singles matches.
Rublev was hot at the end of 2020. He won the Hamburg European Open, reached the quarters at the French Open, won in St. Petersburg, and won in Vienna before a third round exit in the Rolex Masters and a 1-2 result at the ATP Finals against top competition.
Anything You Can Do I Can Do Better
Like Rublev, Medvedev is going good. He swept Vasek Pospisil and Roberto Carballes Baena to begin the Australian Open before winning the first two sets of the third round against Filip Krajinovic. He lost the next two sets, but swept the fifth 6-0. He was unthreatened by Mack McDonald in his most recent match.
While Rublev swept his ATP Cup matches against second tier competition, Medvedev won four matches, beating Alexander Zverev, Matteo Berrettini, Kei Nishikori, and Diego Schwartzman.
Medvedev finished 2020 by winning the Paris Masters and ATP Finals. In London he bested Novak Djokovic, Zverev and Schwartzman in straight sets, before going the distance in wins over Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem.
How to Bet the Semifinal
This is a battle of two guys playing at an extraordinarily high level right now. Both are perhaps at the high-water mark in their promising careers. While Medvedev has dominated Rublev in a limited sample size head-to-head, we suspect this is going to be a very competitive and entertaining match. There are likely to be a tiebreak or two. Over 39.5 games (-112) feels like the right play. That said, +200 on Rublev to pull the upset isn’t a bad angle either.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.