Andrey Rublev vs Rafael Nadal Odds & Prediction


Andrey Rublev vs Rafael Nadal

Spain’s Rafael Nadal returns the ball toItaly’s Fabio Fognini during their semifinal match of the Monte Carlo Tennis Masters tournament in Monaco, Saturday, April, 20, 2019. (AP Photo/Claude Paris)

  • World #3 Rafael Nadal is the -625 favorite to defeat Andrey Rublev in their quarterfinal match at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters on Friday, April 16th
  • Nadal is seeking his 12th title at Monte Carlo
  • Rublev is through to the quarterfinals for the first time in this tournament

There’s s vast gulf between Rafael Nadal and Andrey Rublev in their respective resumes in competition at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters.

World #3 Nadal, the planet’s most dominant clay court performer, is in search of his 12th career title in this event. Rublev is through to the quarterfinals of the tournament for the first time in his career.

Any wonder then that the Spaniard is the overwhelming -625 favorite to win their quarterfinal match?

The Andrey Rublev vs Rafael Nadal match is slated for a 9:30 am ET start on Friday, April 16th on the Short Rainier III court. Live broadcast of the match is being provided by the Tennis Channel.

Andrey Rublev vs Rafael Nadal Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total at DraftKings
Andrey Rublev +440 +5.5 (-155) O 18.5 (-265)
Rafael Nadal -625 -5.5 (+123) U 18.5 (+200)

Odds as of April 15th

Nadal Cruises Past Dimitrov

It didn’t take much out of Nadal to dispatch #14 seed Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16. He won in straight sets, barely breaking a sweat in the 6-1, 6-1 verdict.

Interestingly, Dimitrov calls Monte Carlo home. Based on Nadal’s 11 wins in this tournament, he’s quite comfortable living there as well.

The world #3 required all of 55 minutes to send Dimitrov packing. Nadal is now 14-1 lifetime in head-to-head meetings with the Bulgarian. That includes a 4-0 mark on the clay courts of Monte Carlo.

Nadal never faced a breakpoint the entire match. He hit 17 winners. Dimitrov’s effort was mistake-prone. He double-faulted three times during his opening service game. His service was broken four times in the match.

After the match, Dimitrov, who accumulated 35 unforced errors, blamed an infection from a persistent toothache for his poor performance. He insisted that his first stop after leaving the tournament would be a visit to the dentist.

Rublev Battles Past Bautista Agut

While Nadal was on cruise control in his easy win over Dimitrov, you could say that Rublev was forced to gut out his round of 16 triumph over another Spanish star, Roberto Bautista Agut.

The young Russian eventually emerged with a 7-6(7-2), 5-7, 6-3 decision over Bautista Agut, but the outcome didn’t come without Rublev being forced to fight for all he’s worth. He charged back from a 4-2 deficit to win the first set, only to fall behind 4-1 in the second set.

There really was little to choose from between the two players in this match. Bautista Agut actually held a better first serve percentage (64-55) and won a higher percentage of second serve points (49-44). Each broke the other’s service six times.

Rublev was showing a slight edge in receiving points won (48-46). Where he was most dominant was on the serve. He smacked seven aces to three for Bautista Agut. The latter also double-faulted four times.

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Nadal Is Mr. Consistency

When it comes to clay courts, Nadal remains the man. When he comes to Monte Carlo to play, Nadal has a habit of sticking around.

He’s into the quarterfinals of this tournament for the 16th time in a row. Nadal has won 73 matches at Monte Carlo during his playing career.

He is 445-40 all-time on clay, a .918 winning percentage. Nadal has captured 59 ATP titles on clay, at least one every year since 2004. In fact, he’s won more titles at Monte Carlo (11) than Rublev has won anywhere (eight).

Andrey Rublev vs Rafael Nadal Stats

8 ATP Ranking 3
8 ATP Titles 86
10 ATP Final Appearances 123
22-4 W-L (2021) 6-1
89 Service Games Won 93
28 Return Games Won 32
70 Break Points Saved 65
168 Aces 40

Sixth-seeded Rublev is the world’s #8 player, but like everyone else who holds a tennis racquet for a living, his work with clay pales in comparison to the achievements of Nadal. The Russian shows a 27-18 won-loss record on the surface.

He’s claimed two titles at clay-court events. Rublev won at Hamburg in 2020 and Umag in 2017.

Nadal and Rublev have met twice on the court, both times on hard court surfaces. Nadal won both matches – in the 2020 ATP Finals and at the 2017 US Open – without dropping a set.

Pick: Rafael Nadal -5.5 (+123), Nadal 2-0 (-182)


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Robert Duff

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