Arkansas vs Baylor Picks and Odds

Arkansas guard Moses Moody

Arkansas guard Moses Moody (5) against Missouri during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Fayetteville, Ark. Saturday, Jan. 2, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)

  • Baylor is a seven-point favorite over Arkansas on Monday night in the NCAA Tournament South Region final at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
  • Baylor is trying to reach the Final Four for the first time since 1948; Arkansas has not made it since 1995
  • The Arkansas-Baylor odds and pick can be found below

Top-seeded Baylor will look to advance to the Final Four for the first time since 1948 when it faces #3 Arkansas at 9:57 p.m. ET Monday night in the South Region championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Baylor (25-2) advanced to the Elite Eight by beating #5 Villanova 62-51 on Saturday in a regional semifinal game. The Bears have won seven of their last eight games and are favored by seven points against Arkansas.

Arkansas (25-6) notched its 12th victory in the last 13 games by getting past #15 Oral Roberts 72-70. The Razorback were last in the Final Four in 1995.

Arkansas vs Baylor Odds

Team Moneyline at DraftKings Spread Total
Arkansas +245 +7 (-110) Over 148.5 (-113)
Baylor -305 -7 (-110) Under 148.5 (-108)

Odds taken March 27ย 

Baylor Struggles, Still Wins

Sophomore guard Adam Flagler scored a team-high 16 points in 24 minutes off the bench for Baylor on Saturday. The Bears needed the boost on a day when the offense sputtered, and they got little production from leading scorers Jared Butler and MaCio Teague.

Baylor came into the game leading the nation in three-point shooting at 41.5%. However, it connected on just 3 of 19 attempts (15.8%) from beyond the arc as Villanova continually switched defenses between a 2-3 zone and man-to-man.

Butler had just nine points on 1-of-9 shooting from distance. Teague scored a season-low five points.

Butler is Baylorโ€™s top scorer with a 16.6 average and Teague is scored 15.7 points a game. Both guards failed to score in double figures for just the third time this season. Teague managed just nine points in Baylorโ€™s previous game, a win over Wisconsin the second round.

March Madness Final Four Odds Tracker

Junior guard Davion Mitchell added 14 points, matching his season average.

Butler also has averages of 4.7 assists and 2.1 steals. Mitchell is handing out 5.3 assists and making 2.0 steals a game.

Both had two steals as Baylor forced Villanova into 16 turnovers while committing just five. The Wildcats entered the day with an 8.8 average, lowest in the country.

Baylor also held Villanova to 17.6% (3 of 17) on three-pointers and had a 40-32 edge in points in the paint.

Another Arkansas Rally

Freshman guard Davonte Davisโ€™ short jumper with 2.9 seconds left snapped a 70-70 tie and gave Arkansas the win over upset-minded Oral Roberts, who nearly became the first 15 seed to reach a regional final.

The Razorbacks trailed 46-34 with 15:28 left before rallying. They have overcome double-digit deficits in each of their three wins in the NCAA Tournament.

Senior guard Jalen Tate led Arkansas with 22 points, his second-best output of the season. He also had six assists, the last coming on Davisโ€™ game-winning basket.

Davis scored 16 points and grabbed eight rebounds while freshman guard Moses Moody had 14 points, six rebounds and three blocked shots despite 4-of-20 shooting.

Senior forward Justin Smith had 12 points and 14 rebounds for his sixth double-double of the season.

Arkansas shot 37.7% (29 of 77). The Razorbacks, though, outrebounded Oral Roberts 44-32 and scored 18 second-chance points off 18 offensive boards, including 11 by Smith.

Moody leads Arkansas in scoring at 17.0 points a game.

Moody is followed by Smith (13.8), junior guard JD Notae (12.8) and Tate (10.9). Smith has a 7.7 rebound average and Tate is averaging 3.9 assists a game.

History is Ancient

Baylor and Arkansas were longtime rivals in the now-defunct Southwest Conference, which disbanded following the 1995-96 season. The schools have not met since the 2009-10 season.

Baylor is third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency with 122.3 points per 100 possessions, according to However, the Bears showed Saturday they can win with defense on a day when they failed to score 65 points for the second time all season.

Arkansas is seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 89.0 points per 100 possessions. Thus, the Razorbacks should at least be able to make it a close game if not pull the upset.

Pick: Arkansas +7 (-110)

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John Perrotto