Ashleigh Barty vs Elina Svitolina Odds & Prediction


Barty

Ashleigh Barty in action against Laura Siegmund during their WTA Tour Ladies Singles Round of 16 tennis match at the Porsche Arena in Stuttgart, Germany, Wednesday April 21, 2021. (Thomas Kienzle/Pool via AP)

  • World #1 Ashleigh Barty is the -265 favorite to defeat Elina Svitolina in their WTA Porsche Tennis Grand Prix semifinal on Saturday, April 24th
  • Svitolina is situated at #5 in the WTA singles rankings
  • Barty has won eight straight matches from players ranked in the top 10, including two victories over Svitolina

When it comes to facing the world’s best tennis players, Ashleigh Barty performs with the smooth efficiency of a Porsche. The world #1 enters her semifinal at the WTA Porsche Tennis Grand Prix on Saturday, April 24th against fifth-ranked Elina Svitolina having won eight straight matches against players ranked among the world’s top 10.

Barty is listed as the -265 favorite to dispatch Svitolina and advance to the tournament final. Neither player in this semifinal has ever played in the final of this event.

The match is slated for a 9:30am ET start at the Porsche-Arena in Stuttgart, Germany. It’s being broadcast by the Tennis Channel.

 Ashleigh Barty vs Elina Svitolina Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total at DraftKings
Ashleigh Barty -265 +2.5 (-420) O 17.5 (-385)
Elina Svitolina +205 -2.5 (+300) U 17.5 (+280)

Odds as of April 23rd

Barty Rallies to Beat Pliskova

In Friday’s quarterfinal against Karolina Pliskova, top-seeded Barty  was two points from a loss at five separate occasions during the match. However, she came back from a break down in the final set to gain the victory by a 2-6, 6-1, 7-5 verdict.

Pliskova was serving for the match, up 5-4 in the third set. The Czech player converted all three break points on Barty’s service, while saving 14 of 19 of her own break points. However, once Barty pulled even in the deciding set at 5-5, she scored 10 of the final 12 points to take the match.

After losing the first set 6-2, Barty changed up her tactics. She forced Pliskova to come to the net with her patented short, slicing shots. That opened up the opportunity for Barty to hit passing shots for winners.

Barty entered the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix as the +350 favorite in the opening line. This is her first competition on a clay court surface since she won the French Open in 2019.

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Svitolina Fends Off Kvitova

Facing reigning champion Petra Kvitova in her quarterfinal match, fourth-seeded Svitolina also came perilously close to seeing her tournament come to an end. She fended off a pair of match points in order to defeat Kvitova 6-7(4-7), 7-5, 6-2.

In fact, that was the last among a number of impressive rallies the Ukrainian player pulled off to overcome Kvitova. She was down a set and trailing 5-2 in the second set when she staved off the two match points.

Surviving that scare, Svitolina won 11 of the next 13 games to bring a halt to Kvitova’s six-match winning streak at Stuttgart. It was just her fourth win in 11 matches against Kvitova.

Barty Holds Edge of Late

Among her eight-match win streak over top-10 players, Barty has beaten Svitolina twice, both times in straight sets. She toppled the Ukrainian 6-3, 6-3 earlier this year in the semifinals at Miami. She also topped Svitolina 6-4, 6-3 in the final of the 2019 WTA Finals.

Prior to those two matches, though, Svitolina was 5-0 against Barty. She won 10 of 12 sets over that five match winning streak, which included a victory in the round of 128 at Wimbledon in 2017.

Ashleigh Barty vs Elina Svitolina Stats

1 WTA Ranking 5
10 WTA Titles 15
15 WTA Final Appearances 18
18-3 W-L (2021) 17-6
79.6 Service Games Won 61.9
39.9 Return Games Won 38.3
61.7 Break Points Saved 47.8
127 Aces 61

Barty opened play in the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix by defeating 2016 finalist Laura Siegemund of Germany 6-0, 7-5. Svitolina began her tournament with a 7-6(4), 6-3 decision over two-time Porsche Tennis Grand Prix champion Angelique Kerber of Germany.

Barty will need to rely on her dominant service game in order to hold Svitolina at bay. In her win at Miami, Barty broke Svitolina’s service five times. Barty hit 27 winners, while Svitolina only managed 11.

Overall, Barty has won 10 of her past 11 matches. She’s 14-8 all-time in WTA semifinals. She’s 4-1 in her last five matches on clay surfaces.

Svitolina is 14-2 in her last 16 matches played on clay courts. She’s reached at least the quarterfinals in each of her last four clay-court events, including a victory last September at Strasbourg.

Expect this one to be a hard-fought, three-set affair. But Barty has held the edge over Svitolina in recent matches. Anticipate that continuing to be the case.

Pick: Ashleigh Barty (-265); Barty 2-1 (+310)

While you’re betting on tennis, be sure to read our Derby betting made easy ahead of next week’s big race!


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Robert Duff

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