ATP Western & Southern Open Finals


Novak Djokovic sets for return shot

World #1 Novak Djokovic is 10-0 against Milos Raonic in head-to-head meetings and is an overwhelming -345 favorite to beat him in Saturday’s ATP Western & Southern Open final. Photo by Carine06 (Wikimedia).

  •  Novak Djkovic is the overwhelming -345 favorite to defeat Milos Raonic in Saturday’s final of the ATP Western & Southern Open
  • Djokovic is 10-0 lifetime against the Canadian player
  • Raonic is playing in his first ATP final in two years

Milos Raonic is through to his first ATP Masters 1000 final in four-and-a-half years. That’s the good news.

The bad news?

The fellow staring back at him across the net in Saturday’s 1pm ET final will be top-seeded Novak Djokovic. The world’s #1 player is a perfect 10-0 in head-to-head matches against Canada’s Raonic.

Clearly taking that shutout streak into account, Djokovic is the prohibitive -345 favorite to dispatch Raonic and win the title.

ATP Western & Southern Open Final Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total at DraftKings
Novak Djokovic -345 +1.5 (-500) O 19.5 (-420)
Milos Raonic +260 -1.5 (+360) U 19.5 (+310)

Odds as of Aug. 28th.

Bettors who choose to back Raonic can access a betting line of +260.

Djokovic Aguts It Out

Admitting he wasn’t the better player in the match and battling an ailing neck, Djokovic dug deep to outlast his hardcourt nemesis Roberto Bautista Agut. Bautista Agut had won their previous three matches played on a hardcourt surface.

Down a break twice in the third set of the three-hour match, Djokovic scraped and clawed his way to a 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 victory. With the match on the line, Djokovic was masterful. He won the tiebreaker 7-0.

Raonic Ends Drought

By virtue of a a 7-6(5), 6-3 victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Raonic advanced to his first ATP final since 2018. He also moved into his first Masters 1000 final since the the 2016 BNP Paribas Open final at Indian Wells.

In that event, Raonic was defeated by Djokovic. The former World #3 is 0-3 all-time in Masters 1000 finals.

Battling Tsitsipas for the second time in his career, Raonic improved to 2-0 against the reigning ATP Finals champion. He faced just one break point the entire match while stopping the Greek player in one hour and 37 minutes.

The unseeded Canadian won 90% of his first-serve points, going 35-of-39. In January in the Round of 32 at the Australian Open, Raonic didn’t face a break point to defeat Tsitsipas 7-5, 6-4, 7-6(2) in their first ATP Tour clash.

Over their two matches, Raonic has won all of his 28 service games against Tsitsipas. He’s faced just the one break point.

A Perfect 10

The -106 pre-tournament favorite, Djokovic has dropped only two sets during his 10-match win streak over Raonic. He beat him in straight sets in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open earlier this year.

En route to the 2018 Western & Southern Open title, Djokovic beat Raonic in the quarterfinals.

Overall, he’s a perfect 22-0 on the season. Djokovic has won titles at the Aussie Open and in Dubai. He’s captured 33 ATP Masters 1000 titles during his career.

Djokovic vs Raonic Stats

1 World Ranking 30
1 Western & Southern Titles 0
79 ATP Titles 8
10-0 Head-to-Head 0-10
22-0 2020 Record 12-4
86.0 Service Games Won 91.0
32.0 Return Games Won 16.0

Raonic’s previous final appearance was in Stuttgart, Germany in June of 2018. Raonic, 29, has won eight career titles. His most recent victory came in January of 2016 in Brisbane, Australia.

Hampered by injury in recent years, Raonic believes that the five-month break from competitive tennis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has helped to refresh both his body and outlook.

Reaching this final is pushing Raonic into the top-20 of the ATP rankings. He’ll be 18th if he loses the final and 13th if he wins the tournament.

If there ever was a time to bet Raonic to end his Djokovic goose egg, this might be it. He’s fresh and serving powerfully.

Meanwhile, Djokovic is admittedly less than 100% physically and being asked to play again less than 24 hours after a grueling, three-hour match.

Take Milos in three sets.

Pick: Milos Raonic (+260).

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Robert Duff

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