Australian Open Women’s Singles Round of 16 Odds & Picks


Naomi Osaka follows through on a serve during the 2021 Australian Open.

Japan’s Naomi Osaka serves to Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur during their third round match at the Australian Open tennis championship in Melbourne, Australia, Friday, Feb. 12, 2021.(AP Photo/Hamish Blair)

  • The fourth round of the Australian Open gets underway tonight
  • The round includes two intriguing first time meetings
  • Read below for the moneyline odds of each match and a preview of three

The Round of 16 of the Australian Open women’s singles play begins tonight for us in North America. The fourth round of play includes a variety of players and a two first time encounters.

See below for the moneyline odds for all eight matches as well as a preview for three of them.

Australian Open Women’s Singles Round of 16 Odds

Matchup Moneyline
[14] Garbine Muguruza vs [3] Naomi Osaka +185/-230
Su-Wei Hsieh vs [19] Marketa Vondrousova +190/-240
[10] Aryna Sabalenka vs [7] Serena Williams -121/-103
[15] Iga Swiatek vs [2] Simona Halep +114/-139
[28] Donna Vekic vs [22] Jennifer Brady +250/-315
Jessica Pegula vs [5] Elina Svitolina +190/-240
[1] Ashleigh Barty vs Shelby Rogers -225/+250
[18] Elise Mertens vs [25] Karolina Muchova -220/+170

Odds taken Feb. 13th from DraftKings

Muguruza vs Osaka

Arguably the biggest match of the round, Muguruza and Osaka will face each other the first time tonight at 7 PM ET. Between these two players, they five Grand Slams titles since 2016, both have held the World No. 1 spot, and both have had success at the Australian Open in the past.

Osaka has not lost a match in over a year, and shows no sign of losing anytime soon. She defeated her third round opponent Ons Jabeur 6-3, 6-2, recording eight aces, but committing five double faults. Despite her serve not being there, only getting 43% of her first serves, she found other ways to win.

Muguruza had a dominating third round win, defeating Zarina Diyas 6-1, 6-1, winning six of seven points at the net and never losing her serve.

I feel this match will go the distance, but the edge won’t come from physical strength. These two players have a similar style of play, where they have a stronger than strong serve and an aggressive forehand. I think this is a perfect example of how Osaka’s mental strength will give her the ability to win. The Japanese star has been very vocal and open about how she’s been able to mentally get through the harder times where she wasn’t playing up to expectation.

Osaka to win in three sets (+300)

Sabalenka vs Williams

One of the most intriguing matches of the fourth round will be between these two. This will be the first meeting between Sabalenka and Williams.

Sabalenka is coming of a dominant performance against her third round opponent, Ann Li, defeated the American 6-3, 6-1, in just over an hour. The Belarusian recorded 19 winners and only committed nine unforced errors. Prior to the Aussie Open, Sabalenka lost in the opening round of the Gippsland Trophy tournament to Kaia Kanepi, but that has been her only loss in her last 19 matches.

Despite the impressive win, Sabalenka’s serve was less than impressive, and she recorded four double faults. This is an aspect of her game that Williams will be able to take advantage of.

Williams has played a fairly dominant tournament so far. She had a slow start to her third round match against Anastasia Potapova, where she found herself down 5-3 in the first set and recorded 25 unforced errors in that set alone. She did manage to comeback to win 7-6(5), 6-2. But that performance could be of concern now that she has to go up against Sabalenka who is playing some of the best tennis of her career.

With such close moneyline odds, I would look beyond it to find the best value. We saw during Williams’ third round match, that it is possible to put the pressure on to the superstar. If Sabalenka was to dictate the pace of the game at times, she has the possibility to win.

Sabalenka to win in straight set (+200)

Swiatek vs Halep

Swiatek and Halep are no strangers to each other at the Grand Slam level. These two players have only ever seen each other in the fourth round of a Grand Slam tournament, with a head-to-head record of 1-1. Their first meeting came at the 2019 French Open where Halep won 6-1, 6-0, and their most recent meeting came at the 2020 French Open, where Swiatek won 6-1, 6-2, and went on to win her first Grand Slam.

The 19-year old Swiatek hadn’t dropped a set yet at the Aussie Open, and will probably Halep’s toughest opponent yet. In the third round, Swiatek defeated opponent Fiona Ferro 6-4, 6-3 in just under and hour and a half. This make it her 10th consecutive Grand Slam win, reaching the second week of a Grand Slam for the fourth time in her career.

Halep is one of the best players on tour right now, and she continues to show us why. After a little lapse in the second round, where she was almost upset by opponent Ajla Tomljanovic, losing the first set, Halep reminded us all why she’s one of the best when she defeated Veronika Kudermetova 6-1, 6-3. Halep recorded 21 winners and only 12 unforced errors.

This will be an exciting match to watch, that could go either way. I think the little extra motivation Halep has to avenge her last match against Swiatek, might be the edge that is needed to defeated her opponent.

Halep to win in straight sets (+170)

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Hayley Graham

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