Fuenlabrada v Mallorca
Monday 29 March 20:00 BST
It may not be the sexiest set of fixtures on Monday due to the international break, but we’re off to the Spanish second tier and the outskirts of Madrid for the best bet of the day.
The Estadio Fernando Torres, named of course after the area’s famous Spanish striker, is the home of Fuenlabrada as they host the rather more well-known Real Mallorca, who are second in the Segunda Division and chasing an instant return to the top flight after relegation last season.
This is Mallorca’s game in hand on league leaders Espanyol, and just a point will put them top of the table, although as the league’s best away side they’ll fancy taking three points from this trip to the capital.
Fuenlabrada have a pretty awful overall record at home having won just twice all season – but they’re draw specialists at the Fernando Torres with 10 stalemates from 15 games. I’ll be backing Mallorca to get the win at a decent 2.56/4 but that draw is always a danger.
So, we’re delving into the stats for Monday’s bet and in trying to make an instant impact in this column I’ve plumped for a stats-based double that will hopefully get us off to a good start this week.
Under 2.5 goals by itself is just 1.42/5 but it’s no surprise when you see the stats – Mallorca’s over/under tally from 30 games reads 10-20 this season, with Fuenlabrada even worse at 9-21.
Drill down to home and away form and it’s an even more compelling case with just two of Fuenlabrada’s home games going over when averaging just 1.7 goals per game, while just three of Mallorca’s road trips have eclipsed the magic number.
Under 1.5 goals at 2.56/4 is even worth a look, while the Mallorca win and under 2.5 goals coming in at 4.3310/3 was close to getting the final nod here. Four of Mallorca’s last seven away league games have been 0-1 wins.
I promised a stats-based double though so we’re delving into the corners market for the second leg of our fancy and it makes interesting reading with Fuenlabrada averaging 9.07 at home and Mallorca 8.79 away.
Nine is a number certainly achievable here – two of Fuenlabrada’s last four home games have reached that mark while five of Mallorca’s last six away games have tallied at least nine.
Wrapping those two up for our double gives us a healthy above-evens return to wash away those Monday blues.