Cam Newton hasn’t thrown a TD in his last four games. He’ll need a few to keep pace with the Ravens offense tonight. Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire
- The New England Patriots are rare home underdogs when they host the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 pm EST)
- Last week’s picks went 2-2, winning 0.73 units
- Who will make the big plays in this AFC tilt? Find out here
Almost one year after the Baltimore Ravens handed the New England Patriots their first loss of 2019, these teams will meet again on Sunday Night Football, with Bill Belichick’s side in a very different spot. The Patriots are home underdogs for the first time since 2014, and desperately need this upset to keep their playoff hopes alive.
On what should be a rainy night in Foxborough, can New England corral this Ravens run game, or will Lamar Jackson give Belichick’s defense fits again? Let’s explore.
Ravens vs Patriots Player Props
|Passers||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Lamar Jackson (BAL)||17.5 (Ov +124 | Un -155)||194.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -155)|
|Cam Newton (NE)||17.5 (Ov -132 | Un +106)||190.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||1.5 (Ov +183 | Un -235)|
|Rushers||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Lamar Jackson (BAL)||N/A||52.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Cam Newton (NE)||N/A||41.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Receivers||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Marquise Brown (BAL)||3.5 (Ov -128 | Un +100)||44.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||21.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125)|
|Willie Snead (BAL)||2.5 (Ov +124 | Un -158)||27.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Mark Andrews (BAL)||2.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140)||34.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||17.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125)|
|Jakobi Meyers (NE)||3.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140)||51.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||21.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Damiere Byrd (NE)||2.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140)||31.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
Odds taken Nov. 15 from DraftKings and FanDuel
Action Jackson Takes Off
Mark Ingram’s return from injury casts so much uncertainty over who will get carries in this Ravens backfield, that none of the running backs are available for prop bets. But that’s fine for us, because we know the one player that will shred the Patriots 31st ranked run defense (per DVOA) is under center for Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson is a nightmare to game plan for 😈
Let’s see what @Lj_era8 and the Ravens have in store for the Patriots TOMORROW on SNF. pic.twitter.com/zBJUUjRQEZ
— Sunday Night Football (@SNFonNBC) November 14, 2020
Lamar’s passing game has come under fire again in 2020, but the plays he can make with his legs are never in question. The reigning MVP has topped 53 yards on the ground in his last three outings, all of which came against far superior defenses than he’ll see tonight.
Lamar on the bootleg.
He’s in for the rushing touchdown! @Lj_era8 #RavensFlock
📺: #BALvsIND on CBS
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/ul5IFJEdQc pic.twitter.com/1Ciz9rzU9e
— NFL (@NFL) November 8, 2020
The biggest threat to this bet might be the Ravens running away with this game and Lamar sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter. But we’ll try and protect ourselves from that outcome with the next bet.
Pick: 1 unit on Lamar Jackson OVER 52.5 rushing yards (-110)
Newton Can Still Sling It In Catch-Up Mode
Post COVID-19 Cam Newton has been a rough watch. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the last four weeks and for a couple of those games, he didn’t even throw to the right side of the field. But on Monday, when trailing in the fourth quarter against the Jets, he showed he can still fire the ball around.
Cam Newton is a vet with the pocket moves 🥶
(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/FbYidmIKrf
— ESPN (@espn) November 10, 2020
Newton looks to be developing some chemistry with Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd. And with tonight’s game-script likely seeing the Patriots trailing for most of the evening, there will plenty of chances for Newton to put up decent passing numbers. That’s why we’re going to take him in a DraftKings head-to-head with Lamar.
|Player to Have Most Passing Yards||Odds|
Again, Jackson could be on the sideline for some of this second half, or at least trying to run out the clock. Meanwhile, it’s very hard to envision a scenario where Baltimore needs to pass to win this game. Taking the quarterback who will be desperately trying to rally is a no-brainer.
Pick: 1 unit on Cam Newton more passing yards than Lamar Jackson (-110)
Ravens vs Patriots Scoring Props
|Team||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Lamar Jackson (BAL)||+800||+125|
|Cam Newton (NE)||+900||+145|
|Marquise Brown (BAL)||+1050||+175|
|Mark Andrews (BAL)||+1100||+190|
|J.K. Dobbins (BAL)||+1400||+240|
|Jakobi Meyers (NE)||+1600||+300|
|Damien Harris (NE)||+1600||+300|
|Mark Ingram (BAL)||+1600||+300|
|Gus Edwards (BAL)||+1600||+300|
|James White (NE)||+1800||+325|
Who Else to Score First?
I realize it’s boring that I keep bringing up the same player, but that’s just the reality of writing about the Ravens. It’s Jackson’s offense and everyone else just comes along for the ride.
Lamar Jackson 👀
Nate Gerry vacates his spot
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) October 18, 2020
The Patriots allowed Jackson to score twice last year, and that was back before their linebacking corps all opted out of this season. One of those TDs opened the scoring, so we’ll sprinkle a little on that happening again. But ultimately, we just want him to find the endzone at any time.
Pick: 0.25 units on Jackson to score first TD(+800); 0.75 units on Jackson to score anytime TD (+125)
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.