Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Props


Cam Newton throwing a pass in a game.

Cam Newton hasn’t thrown a TD in his last four games. He’ll need a few to keep pace with the Ravens offense tonight. Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire

  • The New England Patriots are rare home underdogs when they host the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 pm EST)
  • Last week’s picks went 2-2, winning 0.73 units
  • Who will make the big plays in this AFC tilt? Find out here

Almost one year after the Baltimore Ravens handed the New England Patriots their first loss of 2019, these teams will meet again on Sunday Night Football, with Bill Belichick’s side in a very different spot. The Patriots are home underdogs for the first time since 2014, and desperately need this upset to keep their playoff hopes alive.

On what should be a rainy night in Foxborough, can New England corral this Ravens run game, or will Lamar Jackson give Belichick’s defense fits again? Let’s explore.

Ravens vs Patriots Player Props

Passers Completions Passing Yards Passing TD
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 17.5 (Ov +124 | Un -155) 194.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -155)
Cam Newton (NE) 17.5 (Ov -132 | Un +106) 190.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 1.5 (Ov +183 | Un -235)
Rushers Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rush + Receiving Yards
Lamar Jackson (BAL) N/A 52.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) N/A
Cam Newton (NE) N/A 41.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) N/A
Receivers Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Marquise Brown (BAL) 3.5 (Ov -128 | Un +100) 44.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 21.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125)
Willie Snead (BAL) 2.5 (Ov +124 | Un -158) 27.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) N/A
Mark Andrews (BAL) 2.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140) 34.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 17.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125)
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 3.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140) 51.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 21.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)
Damiere Byrd (NE) 2.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140) 31.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) N/A

Odds taken Nov. 15 from DraftKings and FanDuel

Action Jackson Takes Off

Mark Ingram’s return from injury casts so much uncertainty over who will get carries in this Ravens backfield, that none of the running backs are available for prop bets. But that’s fine for us, because we know the one player that will shred the Patriots 31st ranked run defense (per DVOA) is under center for Baltimore.

Lamar’s passing game has come under fire again in 2020, but the plays he can make with his legs are never in question. The reigning MVP has topped 53 yards on the ground in his last three outings, all of which came against far superior defenses than he’ll see tonight.

The biggest threat to this bet might be the Ravens running away with this game and Lamar sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter. But we’ll try and protect ourselves from that outcome with the next bet.

Pick: 1 unit on Lamar Jackson OVER 52.5 rushing yards (-110)

Newton Can Still Sling It In Catch-Up Mode

Post COVID-19 Cam Newton has been a rough watch. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the last four weeks and for a couple of those games, he didn’t even throw to the right side of the field. But on Monday, when trailing in the fourth quarter against the Jets, he showed he can still fire the ball around.

Newton looks to be developing some chemistry with Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd. And with tonight’s game-script likely seeing the Patriots trailing for most of the evening, there will plenty of chances for Newton to put up decent passing numbers. That’s why we’re going to take him in a DraftKings head-to-head with Lamar.

Player to Have Most Passing Yards Odds
Cam Newton -110
Lamar Jackson -113

Again, Jackson could be on the sideline for some of this second half, or at least trying to run out the clock. Meanwhile, it’s very hard to envision a scenario where Baltimore needs to pass to win this game. Taking the quarterback who will be desperately trying to rally is a no-brainer.

Pick: 1 unit on Cam Newton more passing yards than Lamar Jackson (-110)

Ravens vs Patriots Scoring Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Lamar Jackson (BAL) +800 +125
Cam Newton (NE) +900 +145
Marquise Brown (BAL) +1050 +175
Mark Andrews (BAL) +1100 +190
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) +1400 +240
Jakobi Meyers (NE) +1600 +300
Damien Harris (NE) +1600 +300
Mark Ingram (BAL) +1600 +300
Gus Edwards (BAL) +1600 +300
James White (NE) +1800 +325

Who Else to Score First?

I realize it’s boring that I keep bringing up the same player, but that’s just the reality of writing about the Ravens. It’s Jackson’s offense and everyone else just comes along for the ride.

The Patriots allowed Jackson to score twice last year, and that was back before their linebacking corps all opted out of this season. One of those TDs opened the scoring, so we’ll sprinkle a little on that happening again. But ultimately, we just want him to find the endzone at any time.

Pick: 0.25 units on Jackson to score first TD(+800); 0.75 units on Jackson to score anytime TD (+125)

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Eric Thompson

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