Best bets for Italy v England in one place


Italy v England
Sunday 11 July, 20:00 BST kick-off
Live on BBC One & ITV

A magnificent Euro 2020 reaches its finale on Sunday night with England’s biggest match since 1966. The Three Lions 1.8810/11 are marginal favourites over Italy 2.1211/10 to lift the trophy at Wembley and it is sure to be a tense occasion, as the two best teams in the tournament meet. Paul Higham’s kicks-off our guide to betting on the game with his in-depth match preview.

Paul says: “Italy full-backs Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Emerson don’t inspire me defensively, while neither Giorgio Chiellini or Leonardo Bonucci will not want to be isolated against one of England’s flying forwards.

“Not that anyone’s dealt with the excellent Raheem Sterling – who has dribbled past more players than anyone else in the tournament (18), with a joint-best seven of those coming in the opposition box.

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“Harry Maguire, John Stones and in particular Kyle Walker and Jordan Pickford will have to avoid mistakes against Italy’s hungry high-pressing forwards, and I wouldn’t be surprised, or indeed uncomfortable, with Southgate playing three at the back after having Walker’s pace as that safety blanket.

“I wouldn’t rule out extra-time but I don’t think it will go to penalties – admittedly the opposition were different but England looked much stronger in their extra-time than Italy did, and as I’ve been banging on all tournament about how five subs really plays into Southgate’s hands with his attacking talent.

“So I’m not taking the 90-minute price but I’ll happily side with England to end over half-a-century of hurt in a low-scoring tense old evening at Wembley.”

Paul’s Bet: Back England to lift the trophy & under 2.5 goals in the match (90 mins) with Bet Builder at around 2.56/4

Just one game remains of a stunning Euro 2020 and so we asked some of our tournament writers to deliver one bet for the final between England and Italy on Sunday night. Here are a couple to get you started…

Mark O’Haire says: “Major tournament finals tend to be tight affairs. Going back to Euro ’96, three of the last six European Championship finales finished all-square after 90 minutes. If we include the World Cup since 1994, seven of 13 showpiece deciders paid out for draw backers. With the stalemate the biggest-priced option in the match odds market on Sunday, I’m keen to be involved.

“However, we can take the price a little further by adding Under 2.5 Goals into the mix. The goal line has been set relatively low and it’s difficult to disagree with the market when we consider what’s at stake. By opposing goals alongside the draw, we’re effectively supporting the 0-0 and 1-1 correct score at a generous 3.45 on the Exchange.”

Mark’s Bet: Back draw/under 2.5 goals double @ 3.45

Kevin Hatchard says: “Luke Shaw deserves enormous credit for translating his fine form for Manchester United into success at international level, and the fact that he wasn’t in the official tournament sticker album shows how he has forced his way back into contention.

“Shaw was involved in the build-up to both goals against Germany, set up two goals versus Ukraine, and is a danger with his delivery at set plays. He should also get room to work against the inconsistent Giovanni Di Lorenzo. I liked this bet anyway, but with Sportsbook giving us a very generous boost from 11/2 to 7/1, it’s definitely one to keep in mind.”

Kevin’s Bet: Back Luke Shaw in the Anytime Assist market at a boosted 8.07/1

Throughout Euro 2020 former managers Glenn Hoddle, Gordon Strachan and Mark Hughes have been giving their exclusive thoughts ahead of various stages of the tournament, and ahead of the final they have their say on the most likely outcome.

Glenn says: “This might be one game too far for Italy. I think it’s going to be a very close game with very little in it.

“It’s down to the finishing, you want your goalkeeper to have a worldie if he’s called upon and, while Jordan Pickford has been steady, he had a bit of a dodgy time against Denmark. He’s now got to have a good game. I’m going for a 2-1 win for England.”

Betfair Ambassador Dimitar Berbatov hails England’s performances at Euro 2020, says he’ll be rooting for the Three Lions and has a blunt message for critics of Harry Kane…

Dimitar says: “Harry Kane has been excellent in the knockout stages. He received some criticism in the Group stages but Kane can tell his critics to f**k off. Even great players have their ups and downs. Even when he wasn’t scoring he was doing a lot for the team. But now the goals are coming.

“The pressure on him with the penalty against Denmark was immense. You cannot imagine what it feels like to take a penalty with a nation’s hopes on your shoulders. As a player you know that everyone is depending on you, even if you don’t want to think about it. It wasn’t a good penalty but he got a bit of luck.

“Italy are unbeaten in 33 games and are enjoying a great tournament. They are passionate, well-organised and will run all day. But I am rooting for England. Of course I f**king am! I played half my career in England and I loved the country, the people and I still love going back. The players deserve to win. Between now and Sunday they must rest and prepare mentally for the game of their lives.

“The final is not going to be an easy watch for fans on either side. I would love to see goals but I think both teams will be very cautious. I predict that England will win 1-0 in normal time.”

Dimitar’s Bet: Back 0-1 for Correct Score @ 8.07/1

Another of Betfair’s Ambassador’s, Rivaldo, says England deserve to be in the final, but he fancies Italy to edge a close game.

Rivaldo says: “The English national team will play their first Euros Final ever and I think they completely deserve it for such a committed campaign so far.

“In my opinion, the Premier League is the best league in the world; despite a lot of foreign players there we must recognise that many English players benefit from that quality and competitiveness to being prepared for these big occasions with their national team.

“Everybody loves to watch English football and also the Three Lions, so I’m happy to see all the joy generated to the country, and who knows if they are about to replicate it next year on the World Cup too.

“About my expectations for the final, it’s difficult to point to a winner since I see no clear favourite in this case, but I’m sticking with Italy on this one to win 2-1 in regular time.

Rivaldo’s Bet: Back Italy to Win 2-1 @ 16.015/1

Dave Tindall looks at some of the side markets on offer when England host Italy in Sunday’s Euro 2020 final at Wembley…

Dave says: “So many of Kane’s assists for Spurs were dropping deep and playing in the speedy Heung-Min Son. In Sterling and Bukayo Saka/Jordan Sancho, Kane has several teammates who can replicate the Son role. We’ve already seen him thread a number of excellent through balls behind defences and Gareth Southgate has realised that Kane works best with fast players around him. That’s why Jack Grealish and Phil Foden have had limited game time.

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“So, let’s try the very realistic scenario of Kane to assist and Sterling to score anytime which pays just under 24.023/1 on the Bet Builder. Sterling had two efforts superbly saved by Kasper Schmeichel against Denmark, the first at 0-1 and the second right at the end of extra-time. Kane had set him up both times.

“I’ll also try the reverse option of Sterling to assist and Kane to score at close to 14.013/1. That’s already landed in the knockout phase when Sterling slipped in Kane to score the early opening goal against Ukraine.”

Dave’s Bet: 0.5pts Harry Kane to assist and Raheem Sterling to score anytime at 24.023/1

Dave Farrar previews the EURO 2020 Final as a long-time follower of Italian football who also has a funny feeling about England…

Dave says: “Italy are excellent tactically, really clever, and I think that they have that over England, who can start to look a little predictable, especially when they’re unable to dictate the play. When the pressure is on, that regimented tutelage in those brutal Italian academies could well carry them through.

“Italy have certainly beaten better opposition at Euro 2020, and a knockout path that featured a spirited Austria, a high-class Belgium and then an inspired Spain is one that took some negotiating. They looked leg weary towards the end of that semi, but have had a day longer to recover, and far fewer distractions.

“Italy have got this far because of their tenacity and their class, and have always found something when it has been needed. It’s the sign of a team that is on a long unbeaten run, one that will not be affected at all by the occasion. They are 3.185/40 to win in 90 minutes, and 2.111/10 to win the trophy. That looks a price to me, based on a brilliant Italian midfield, good enough goalscorers, and that winning habit.”

Dave’s Bet: Back Italy to beat England @ 3.185/40

Alex Keble previews the Euro 2020 final and predicts that Southgate’s 4-2-3-1 is the best way to beat Italy on Sunday.

Alex says: “Keep an eye on Harry Maguire then, England’s best aerial presence at both ends of the pitch. His battle with the two Italian centre-backs, Leonardo Bonucci and Georgio Chiellini, could prove decisive.

“If England can stay compact and work hard to avoid Italy’s midfield from getting too much time on the ball, then they will have the platform for a narrow win.”

Alex’s Bet: Back England to win and under 2.5 goals at 4.57/2

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For more tips and insight on the Euro 2020 final, listen to the latest Football…Only Bettor Daily Euros Preview