Best bets for Premier League and play-offs

Tottenham v Aston Villa
Wednesday May 19, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Even in a disappointing season for Spurs – thanks to Jose Mourinho’s grim tenure – Harry Kane has thrived, scoring 22 goals. He is 2.265/4 to win the Premier League Golden Boot behind Mo Salah 1.768/11, who also has 22 with two matches to play, so the England captain Kane would love to add to his tally against Villa here. Spurs are sixth, level on points with West Ham in seventh, and Ryan Mason’s men are 1.814/5 for a top six finish.

Key Stat: Spurs have won their last six matches against Aston Villa.

Jamie Pacheco says: “Kane has an impressive record in this fixture. He scored a penalty in that 2-0 win earlier this season, twice in the 3-1 win last season and scored three times against them in two matches back in 2015/16.

“At the weekend he scored a well-taken goal and could have had a hat-trick after hitting the post twice. Crucially, he’s 2.111/10 be the league’s top scorer so may just be a little keener than usual to get on the scoresheet with Mo Salah 1.84/5 currently tied with him on 22 goals.

“Kane is 4/6 to score a goal and 16/5 to get two or more. The preference is for the latter given his record against Villa, his hunger for goals to win that award and the potential for goals in the match.”

Jamie’s bet: Back Harry Kane to score two or more goals @ 4.216/5

Lincoln City v Sunderland
Wednesday 19th May, kick-off 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Main Event

Are the mighty Mackems on the road back to the big time? At the start of the play-offs bettors make them favourites on the Exchange to win promotion to the Championship. The pressure is one for them, though, whereas their semi-final opponents Lincoln, and the other two in the competition, are not saddled with the same weight of expectation.

Key Stat: The hosts recorded 13 away wins (a club record) this term, which might be crucial when it comes to the the second-leg.

Alan Dudman says: “Lincoln are quite rightly the bigger of the two at 3.185/40 as the well known secret is that they are far superior away from home with their counter-attacking style. But Sunderland at 2.77/4 on the road makes little appeal, and if I was to play Sunderland I would rather go Double Chance with the draw. But it must be remembered they won 4-0 at Sincil Bank in December – a rare off day for the Imps.

“I think we can play the draw at 3.1085/40 as the first games tend to be tight as neither wants to cede too much ground and Sunderland drew the most amount on the road with nine.”

Burnley v Liverpool
Wednesday 19 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Alisson’s remarkable last-gasp winner at West Brom on Sunday has put Liverpool on course for a place in the Champions League next season. The Reds are 1.331/3 for a top four finish – although that price will be affected by the result of Chelsea v Leicester on Tuesday night – and, as mentioned, Salah is the favourite to win the Golden Boot, so an important night beckons at Turf Moore.

Key Stat: Liverpool have taken 20 points from a possible 24 in their last seven matches.

Andy Schooler says: “I like the shots markets for this clash given how desperate Liverpool are for a result. If Burnley are able to prevent the Reds grabbing an early lead – or even get ahead themselves – shots should rain down from the visitors.

“They managed 26 at West Brom on Sunday (there were 36 in total in the match), 21 against Newcastle (28 in match) and 17 at both Manchester United and Leeds (34, 29 totals).

“Only West Brom and Newcastle have conceded more shots per game than Burnley, who have actually been a bit more expansive of late. Admittedly I’m not sure that will be the case here but some of the total shots prices still look big.

“I’ll play 33+ match shots at 14/1. This has landed in Liverpool’s last two games, plus the reverse fixture in which the Reds managed 27 attempts on goal.”

Andy’s bet: Back 33 or more match shots @ 14/1

West Brom v West Ham
Wednesday 19 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

It’s been a fantastic season for West Ham but, after a poor run of form, they have dropped out of the race for the top four and are 2.3211/8 to finish in the top six. A win here, against a relegated side managed by a former Hammers manager, would do them their morale the power of good and keep them in contention for Europe.

Key Stat: West Ham have won just one of their last five matches in the Premier League.

Dan Fitch says: “West Ham have won 28 points away from home in the Premier League this season, with the Hammers last winning more on the road in a top-flight campaign back in 1985-86 (31), going on to finish third.

“The Hammers need a win as they chase European qualification and are 1.695/7 to claim victory.”

David Moyes, West Ham.jpg

Jake Osgathorpe says: “David Moyes’s side have a positive xG process when travelling this season (1.69 xGF, 1.42 xGA per away game), and should edge to a win (50%) in a high-scoring game (56% O2.5).”

Dan’s bet: Back West Ham @ 1.695/7

Sporting Cristal v Rentistas
Wed, 23:00
Live on Betfair

Something completely different to round off Wednesday here as we head to South America for a Copa Libertadores clash that sees Rentistas and Sporting Cristal scrapping it out for third spot, which would see one of the teams qualify for the next round of the Copa Sudamericana.

Key Stat: These sides met two weeks ago in Uruguay in a match which finished 0-0.

Nathan Joyes says: “Rentistas are firmly in the driving seat to achieve third place, currently sitting on three points. If they avoid defeat in Peru, it’s almost certain they’re in. Which, is a miracle, considering they finished bottom of their domestic table after a mass exodus of players and staff due to the pandemic.

“I’m not expecting a classic. Cristal have yet to score at home, whilst Rentistas are yet to score away. Admittedly these fixtures have come against the two group giants, but they’ve both proven to lack any kind of firepower when it matters.

“Cristal’s top goalscorer in the groups, Gonzales, has one, whilst the same is the case for Rentistas and their attacker, Gonzalez. Goals really have been at a premium. With high altitude in their favour, the home side have a strong advantage playing over 2000m above sea level which could see their Uruguayan opponents struggle.”

Nathan’s bet: Back ‘No’ in Both Teams To Score @ 1.9720/21