Bale to light up feisty derby
Arsenal v Tottenham
Same Game Multi: BTTS, Bale to score and 40+ booking points @ 8.615/2
Both Arsenal and Tottenham have found their attacking verve of late, with the Gunners racking up over 2.2 xGF in three of their last four Premier League matches, while Spurs have hit 2.0 xGF in all of their last three league games, scoring nine times in that period. BTTS looks good here.
Gareth Bale has seen more playing time of late, and has been getting himself in some excellent scoring positions, shown by his xG/95 average of 0.55. Only Harry Kane (0.59) has a better average than Bale in the Tottenham squad, so it is no surprise to see the Welshman among the goals. He can notch on his North London derby return.
This is a feisty fixture, with both sides collecting a minimum of three cards each in four of the most recent five meetings. With that track record, 40+ booking points has a solid chance this Sunday.
Hammers to get something from Old Trafford
Manchester United v West Ham
Same Game Multi: BTTS, West Ham or Draw and Craig Dawson 1+ shot on target @ 8.615/2
Manchester United have struggled at home this season, winning just six of 13 at Old Trafford in the league and two of five in Europe. Only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have a better away xG process than West Ham, so I like David Moyes’s chances of avoiding defeat in this one.
United do still boast a decent attack at home, but are more vulnerable defensively (1.3 xGA pg), and West Ham can take advantage in a game where both teams hit the net.
Craig Dawson scored his third goal of the season on Monday night, but he is continually getting in excellent scoring positions. His xG/95 average of 0.22 is better than the likes of Mason Greenwood (0.19), Mason Mount (0.18) and James Maddison (0.17), so throwing Dawson in this same game multi to get 1+ shot on target boosts the price nicely.