Best bets for the Premier League and more



Liverpool v Newcastle
Saturday April 24, 12:30
Live on BT Sport

It is not unheard of for Premier League champions to finish outside the top four the following season (Manchester United and Leicester suffered that ignominy in 2014 and ’17 respectively) but it does make for a very disappointing season. Can Liverpool sneak into the top four? They’re only two points away and at 1.9520/21 bettors think they’ll do it. Fail to win here, though, and those odds will drift.

Key Stat: Liverpool have conceded the first goal in each of their last seven home league game.

Steve Rawlings says: “Looking at the side markets, both teams have scored in 50% of Liverpool’s home games this season but both sides have found the net in only 31% of Newcastle’s away games, suggesting the odds-on about No in the Both Teams to Score market is correct but the visitors have started to bag a few of late and I’d be inclined to favour Yes at odds-against.

“There have been more than three goals scored in 56% of Liverpool’s home games but only 31% of Newcastle’s away matches have produced at least three and these two sides played out a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture early in the season. That suggests we may get a low scoring affair but this a fixture that traditionally produces goals.”

Steve’s bet: 1 pt Draw or Away @ 4.57/2

Bournemouth v Brentford
12:30
Sky Sports

Bournemouth are third and Brentford are fifth in the Championship – both are 2.9215/8 to win promotion to the Premier League – and only two points separate them, although the Cherries have played a game more. So this early kick-off is a vital match for both sides.

Key Stat: Bournemouth have won seven consecutive matches but they have kept only one clean sheet on that run.

Mark O’Haire says: “It’s been feast or famine for goals backers following Bournemouth. A chunky 30% of contests have concluded with fewer than two goals, whilst 35% of fixtures have featured four goals or more. Nevertheless, eight of the hosts’ most recent 10 tussles have broken the Over 2.5 Goals 2.001/1 barrier and eight have also rewarded Both Teams To Score 1.768/11 backers.

“Surprisingly, Brentford had kept their sheets clean in only three of 21 Championship contests since mid-December before their current streak of three shutouts in four.”

Mark’s bet: Back Both Teams To Score at 1.768/11

Mainz v Bayern Munich
14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Hansi Flick will leave Bayern Munich in the summer but it looks like he will do so as a champion, with the Bavarians now 10 points clear in the German title race.

Key Stat: Bayern have won eight of their last 10 matches in the Bundesliga, with one draw and one defeat.

Tom Victor says: “A run of seven games without defeat has lifted Mainz five points clear of relegation danger, which is just as well considering the game that awaits them on Saturday.

“Bayern turned a two-goal deficit into a 5-2 win in the reverse fixture, and are expected to complete the double over Bo Svensson’s side despite the Dane – appointed one day after the loss at the Allianz Arena – helping revive the side.”

Tom’s bet: Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Derby v Birmingham
Saturday, 15:00

Derby face a must-win game on Saturday afternoon with the club just one spot off relegation places and 2.77/4 for the drop on the Exchange. Will Wayne Rooney lead County into League One?

Key Stat: Derby have lost four consecutive matches and scored just one goal in the process.

Jack Critchley says: “With a nine point gap on the bottom three, Brum’s Championship status is reasonably secure and they can probably start planning for next season. Nevertheless, Lee Bowyer is unlikely to let his players take their foot off the gas until the club is mathematically safe.

“The former midfielder hasn’t done anything particularly radical at St. Andrews, however they are playing with an increased passion, and the players now appear to be fighting for the cause.

“The visitors have conceded just a single goal in their last four matches, and with Derby’s struggles in the final third, they should be able to keep another clean sheet here. The hosts have been poor, whereas Brum have looked reinvigorated until the stewardship of Bowyer.”

Jack’s bet: Back Birmingham to beat Derby @ 3.211/5

West Ham v Chelsea
17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports Premier League

There’s little love lost between these London rivals but this crunch match in Premier League’s battle for top four should ratchet up the tension even more. Fourth-placed Chelsea are 2.1211/10 for a top four finish while West Ham are 4.03/1 even though they’re separated only by goal difference.

Key Stat: West Ham have conceded 10 goals in their last four matches.

Mark O’Haire says: “The Blues’ improvements from a defensive standpoint have been well documented under Thomas Tuchel and goals per-game figures have dropped drastically since Frank Lampard was removed. Only 1.85 goals have arrived on average across Premier League matches during the German’s spell in charge with 10 of 13 delivering two goals or fewer.

“With that in mind, I like the 2.447/5 available from the Sportsbook on the Bet Builder for Chelsea to succeed and Under 3.5 Goals. Only two of the visitors’ 20 overall outings under Tuchel have breached this line and I suspect the Blues will negate West Ham’s threats through sheer control of possession and tempo at the London Stadium.”

Mark’s bet: Back Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 2.447/5

Real Madrid v Real Betis
Saturday, 20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Key Stat: Real Madrid are unbeaten in 12 matches in La Liga.

Tom Victor says: “Real Madrid briefly went top before Atlético’s victory on Thursday night, and with the champions playing before their title rivals this weekend they have an opportunity to ramp up the pressure.

“Infogol’s model can sees Real Madrid getting the win, despite opponents Real Betis being no pushovers, with both teams tipped to find the net.”

Tom’s bet: Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1