Bettors Say Trump Political Career Over Following Dark Day in Capital


Posted on: January 7, 2021, 09:00h. 

Last updated on: January 7, 2021, 09:16h.

President Donald Trump told his supporters on the Ellipse yesterday to “fight like hell” and “take back our country.” Hours later, rioters stormed the Capitol and breached what’s often considered the Citadel of Liberty.

Trump Biden odds Capitol riot
People rushed the US Capitol on Wednesday. Bettors believe the events will damage any future political aspirations that President Donald Trump might have. (Image: AP)

A 35-year-old US Air Force veteran who intruded into the Capitol was shot dead, and three others died from unspecified medical reasons. Both sides of the political aisle called it a horrible day for the United States of America. The President said this morning he will now commit to “an orderly transition” on January 20th — the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden.

In the wake of the protest-turned-riot, political bettors are forecasting that Trump’s odds of serving again in an elected capacity are long.

“Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?” has “Yes” shares trading at 51 cents. The PredictIt market had those same shares trading above 60 cents prior to yesterday’s events.

A month ago, Trump’s implied chances of filing to run in the next presidential election were more than 70 percent.

Trump Odds

Trump has refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 election, which went in Biden’s favor. The Senate confirmed the Electoral College vote after the Capitol was once again secure.

“Even though I totally disagree with the outcome of the election, and the facts bear me out, nevertheless there will be an orderly transition on January 20th,” Trump said today.

Trump has floated the idea of running in 2024 should his allegations that he won the 2020 election be dismissed, as they ultimately were. However, following a chaotic day for America, oddsmakers have lost confidence that Republicans will again support the billionaire for the nation’s highest office.

Former Republican President George W. Bush said he watched yesterday in “disbelief and dismay.”

Count me out,” said former longtime Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina). “Enough is enough.”

“Lies have consequences. This violence was the inevitable and ugly outcome of the president’s addiction to constantly stoking division,” added Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Nebraska), who has frequently been at odds with Trump.

Online and overseas bookmakers have lengthened Trump’s chances to win a second term in 2024 from 6/1 to 12/1.

Democratic Takeover

While protesters overtook the Capitol briefly, it’s the Democrats who will soon hold power in the legislative building.

In the Georgia Senate runoff this week, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff beat their Republican opponents. Their wins — flipping two Senate seats blue — will result in a 50-50 seat split in the upper chamber.

Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will serve as the tiebreaking vote, as she will become president of the Senate during the Biden administration.

PredictIt’s market regarding Senate control had Republican shares favored at 87 cents on election night. Now, a little more than two months later, the Democrats have overcome those odds to take power.

The Democrats also hold a majority in the House, and will soon occupy the White House.