Biden’s Chances to Win 2020 Election Soar to 83.9%; Trump Down to Just 16.1%


Joe Biden speaking excitedly

Democrat challenger Joe Biden is now the overwhelming 83.9% favorite to win the 2020 US Presidential election. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).

  • As counting of mail-in ballots is continuing on Wednesday, odds are giving Democrat challenger Joe Biden an 83.9 chance of scoring a win in the 2020 US Presidential election
  • Republican incumbent Donald Trump is offered a meager 16.1% chance of retaining the White House
  • Biden was declared the winner in Michigan and Wisconsin. He requires just six more Electoral College votes for a mandate

What a difference a day is making in determining who will win the 2020 US Presidential election.

Around 2 am ET on Wednesday, President Donald Trump was declaring himself a winner. Trumpย  was leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at the time. He was the -241 favorite in the Election odds at that point.

As it turned out, the checks and balances to prevent Trump from earning a second term in the Oval Office were mail-in ballots.

All three of the aforementioned states didnโ€™t begin counting mail-in ballots until early Wednesday. Those mail-in ballots skewed heavily to the Democrats and made Biden a winner in both Wisconsin and Michigan.

By breakfast time Wednesday, Biden was the -420 chalk. Biden is currently an overwhelming -780 favorite to win the Presidency. That equates to an 83.9% probability of a Biden win.

Odds To Win 2020 US Presidential Election

Candidate Odds
Joe Biden -780
Donald Trump +490

Odds taken Nov. 4th

Biden currently sits with 264 Electoral College votes. He requires only six more to win the election and be declared Americaโ€™s President-Elect.

Building A Blue Wall

In winning Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden was taking back two traditionally-Democratic states that turned Republican red in 2016.

As counting of mail-in ballots was happening in both states, they were leaning heavily in Bidenโ€™s favor. That enabled him to overtake Trump in both states and be declared the winner.

The Trump campaign says it will demand a recount in Wisconsin. They are also launching court challenges in other close states.

Pennsylvania had counted approximately 50% of its mail-in ballots. The numbers currently show Trump ahead 51.8-47.0.

Basing projections on the trajectory of the mail-in support, expectations suggest Biden winning the Keystone State.

Nevada Could Be The Decider

Regardless of the outcome in Pennsylvania, Biden just needs to maintain his lead in Nevada. Should he do so, heโ€™ll be the next President.

With 85% of ballots counted, Biden leads Trump 49.3-48.7. Of the counting left to be down, a majority come from Democratic-leaning areas.

Nevada expects to have a tabulation of the remaining ballots by Thursday. The stateโ€™s six Electoral College votes would given Biden the the necessary 270 for a mandate.

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Robert Duff

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