Bills vs Patriots Props – MNF Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Week 16


Cam Newton New England Patriots

New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton (1) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

  • The Buffalo Bills clash with the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football (Dec. 28th, 8:15 pm EST)
  • Our MNF prop bets were 0-3 in Week 15 (2020 season: -6.1 units)
  • Read below for analysis and our favorite Monday Night Football prop bets

The Buffalo Bills clash with the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football (Dec. 28th, 8:15 pm EST) in a battle of two teams going in completely different directions. The 11-3 Bills need a win to keep pace in the hunt for the AFC’s second seed, while the 6-8 Pats have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

New England’s offense has been stuck in the mud all season, but has been especially bad over the past two games. The Pats have failed to score a TD in back-to-back weeks, and are getting sub-par play at the quarterback position from Cam Newton. Superman has appeared to have lost his powers, which makes him an easy fade in the player props market.

Bills vs Patriots Player Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TD
Josh Allen (BUF) 24.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 279.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -200 | Un +155)
Cam Newton (NE) 15.5 (Ov +100 | Un -125) 169.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov +180 | Un -225)
Running Backs + QB Attempts Rush Yards Rush + Receiving Yards
Zack Moss (BUF) 10.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 42.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 53.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Devin Singletary (BUF) 8.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 35.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 53.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Josh Allen (BUF) N/A 29.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Cam Newton (NE) 8.5 (Ov +100 | Un -140) 39.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Wide Receivers + Tight Ends Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Cole Beasley (BUF) 4.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 50.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Stefon Diggs (BUF)  6.5 (Ov -134 | Un +110) 85.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 25.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Damiere Byrd (NE)  3.5 (Ov +115 | Un -143) 38.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 18.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Jakobi Meyers (NE)  4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -155) 51.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Dawson Knox (BUF) 2.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) 27.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 14.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)

All Odds taken Dec. 27th at DraftKings.

Prop #1: Cam Newton Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes

Newton has thrown just one touchdown pass in his past four starts, and hasn’t thrown for multiple scores in any outing all season. He’s thrown twice as many interceptions (10) as touchdowns (5) in 2020, and a matchup versus an improved Buffalo defense is not going to cure his struggles.

The Bills have held their opponents to an average of 18.8 points over their last four games, and limited Newton to 174 scoreless passing yards in their first meeting of the season. Cam is Pro Football Focus’ 29th highest graded passer in 2020, behind names like Mike Glennon, Taysom Hill and Nick Foles.

Pick: Newton Under 1.5 Passing TD (-225), 3 units

Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker

Prop #2: Cole Beasley Over 4.5 Receptions

There’s a misconception that Cole Beasley is just a possession receiver. While physically he might fit that profile, make no mistake Beasley is a baller.

The 31-year-old is second on the team in targets and catches, and has already set a new career-high for receptions in 2020. What’s been even more impressive this season however, is his big play potential. He’s hauled in a catch of at least 22 yards in nine of 14 games, and has seen double-digit targets five separate times. Over the last three weeks he’s seen 31 passes thrown his way, which he’s converted into 22 catches and 283 yards.

A matchup versus the Pats is never a cupcake, no matter depleted their defense may appear, but he has performed well against them in the past. He’s caught at least 7 passes in two of his past three meetings versus New England, and even though the Bills are 7-point favorites, they showed last week they’d still prefer to air it out even when playing from ahead.

Pick: Beasley Over 4.5 Receptions (-112), 1 unit

Bills vs Patriots Scoring Props

Player Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Cam Newton (NE) +600 -134
Stefon Diggs (BUF) +800 +120
Josh Allen (BUF) +800 +120
Cole Beasley (BUF) +1200 +190
Sony Michel (NE) +1300 +220
Devin Singletary (BUF) +1300 +225
Zack Moss (BUF) +1300 +225
Gabriel Davis (BUF) +1600 +260
John Brown (BUF) +1600 +260
Damien Harris (NE) +1800 +300
Dawson Knox (BUF) +1800 +300
James White (NE) +2200 +375
Jakobi Meyers (NE) +2500 +425
Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) +2500 +500
Damiere Byrd (NE) +3000 +500
N’Keal Harry (NE) +3000 +525
Tyler Kroft (BUF) +3500 +650

Prop #3: Allen Strikes First

I’ll be the first to admit I thought touchdown regression was coming for Josh Allen on the ground. A year after scoring 9 rushing TD, Allen has already found paydirt eight times with his legs, and once as a receiver. Add that to the 30 touchdown passes he’s already thrown and he’s the only NFL player to ever rack up 4,000 passing yards, 30 TD passes, 8 rushing TD and a receiving score in a single season.

He found the end zone twice on the ground last week, and I like his chances to strike first versus New England.

Pick: Josh Allen to Score First TD (+800), 0.25 units

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Chris Amberley

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