Juventus players celebrate with the winner’s trophy their victory against Atalanta after the end of Italian Cup soccer final match between Atalanta and Juventus at the Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia, Italy, Wednesday, May 19, 2021. Juventus win Atalanta 2-1. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)
- Serie A Matchday 38 concludes with three matches on Saturday the final seven of the season on Sunday
- Juventus have not lost to Bologna in 19 straight meetings and need to win to maintain hope of playing in the Champions League next season
- Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 38 here
Italy’s Serie A Matchday 38 and while the title has long been decided, there’s still plenty of drama to be played out in the final round, with the major storyline being if Juventus can qualify for the Champions League.
Juventus will need to win, and hope at least one of AC Milan or Napoli can drop points. Roma will also be looking for a result to maintain their spot in the Europa Conference League with Sassuolo just two points behind. At the bottom of the table Benevento’s relegation was confirmed wheb Torino picked up a point against Lazio on Monday in a 0-0 draw.
Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 38 schedule below.
Serie A Matchday 38 Odds
|Crotone vs Fiorentina||+265||+285||-112|
|Cagliari vs Genoa||+110||+230||+265|
|Sampdoria vs Parma||-125||+310||+290|
|Inter Milan vs Udinese||-275||+420||+650|
|Bologna vs Juventus||+1050||+525||-420|
|Atalanta vs AC Milan||+160||+315||+135|
|Spezia vs Roma||+375||+360||-167|
|Sassuolo vs Lazio||-107||+330||+230|
|Napoli vs Hellas Verona||-500||+600||+1300|
|Torino vs Benevento||-118||+320||+265|
Odds as of May 20 at DraftKings
Bologna vs Juventus Prediction
A spot in the top four is on the line for Juventus when they travel to Bologna at 2:45 pm EST on Sunday in Serie A Matchday 38.
It’s three points or bust for Andrea Pirlo’s side who find themselves in the unfamiliar position of not only not winning the Scudetto, but even more shocking, sitting outside of the Champions League places with just a single match to play. Their fate is also not in their own hands. Both Milan and Napoli hold a point advantage, and wins by both would ensure Juve remains on the outside looking in.
Here’s the updated #SerieATIM Table after #LazioTorino! 👀#WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/ybXj3jCLDx
— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) May 18, 2021
Juve could’ve been in an even more precarious position this weekend if not for a last-minute win over Inter last weekend. Both teams scored on a penalty in the first half with Juan Cuadrado putting Juve ahead 2-1 in first-half stoppage time. In the second, Rodrigo Bentancur was shown his second yellow card of the match in the 55′ minute. Inter was eventually able to capitalize with an equalizer in the 83′ off a Giorgio Chiellini own goal. Then with the match winding down, Juventus was awarded another penalty (arguably questionable) which Cuadrado would score as Ronaldo had already been subbed off. In the end, Juve walked away 3-2 winners and at least have a puncher’s chance in the final round.
Complicating this final weekend for Juve, could be some fatigue after Wednesday’s Coppa Italia Final with Atalanta where they emerged victorious 2-1, their 14th cup title.
Juve comes in as heavy favorites to Bologna, who have nothing left to play for in 11th place with 41 points. Bologna have just a single win in their past nine and none in the past six. After last weekend’s 2-2 draw with Verona, they’ve drawn three of their past four.
A matchup with Juventus doesn’t look to be the tonic to end their winless run. Juventus have won each of the past ten meetings across all competitions with Bologna and are 16-3-0 (WDL) against the Rossoblu since their last defeat. In January, they won 2-0 in Turin.
Juventus need the three points and this looks like the perfect opponent for them to face in this situation. Juve don’t usually win by wide margins, but in this case Juve to win by more than two goals could be the best value. At -2, you’ll push on a two-goal win and cash with three or more.
Pick: Juventus -2 (+108)
2021 UEFA Champions League Odds Tracker
Atalanta vs AC Milan Prediction
Atalanta have locked up a top four finish, but would still like to finish in second spot when they host Milan at 2:45 pm EST Sunday afternoon in Serie A Matchday 38 action. Milan, meanwhile, are tied with Napoli on 76 points, and one of those sides could fall out of the top four with a loss and a Juventus win who are fifth, with 75 points.
Atalanta prevailed in a wild 4-3 wn over Genoa last weekend which saw them take a 3-0 halftime lead, only to hang on for thw win after Genoa scored their third in the 84′ minute. La Dea are now undefeated in 11 Serie A Matches and have just a single defeat (Inter) in their past 17.
🏆 #TIMVISIONCUP 🏆
Gian Piero Gasperini is the first coach in @Atalanta_BC history to reach the Final for the 2nd time. 🔝🔵⚫️🏆🇮🇹#WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/PM3ghALsRR
— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) May 17, 2021
After dropping back-to-back results near the end of April, Milan is now 3-1-0 (WDL) after last weekend’s 0-0 draw with Cagliari. In their three wins prior they scored 12 goals, while conceding zero.
It was a 3-0 road win for Atalanta earlier this season in Milan, extending their recent run of success over Milan to 4-6-1 (WDL). The teams have proved evenly matched of late with six draws in 11 recent meetings, though Milan has only managed a single win.
This is a huge match for both sides, but even more so for Milan. Even a draw could not be enough to assure them a top four finish with Juve so close behind. They’ll need to score as they hope for all three points. And attacking against an Atalanta side which has been full of goals this season (90), could be a dangerous propisition with the likes of Luis Muriel, Duvan Zapata and Robin Gosens on the pitch.
🗣️ The post-match reactions following #MilanCagliari
🎙️ Le dichiarazioni post-partita al termine del pari di San Siro#SempreMilan pic.twitter.com/zF5Gd6RGOz
— AC Milan (@acmilan) May 16, 2021
An advantage Milan could take into this one is that Atalanta will be coming off a cup final on Wednesday, where they lost 2-1 against Juventus in the Coppia Italia Final.
I trust Atalanta’s offense to show up Sunday, but they’ve conceded multiple goals to the likes of Genoa and Parma in their past three matches and I see their defense being breached by Milan as well.
Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-175 at Bet365)
Spezia vs Roma Prediction
With an impressive 4-1 win over Torino last weekend Spezia has assured themselves of another season in Italy’s top-flight league. With 38 points, they are six ahead of Benevento in 18th. They’ll host Roma at 2:45 pm EST Sunday afternoon in Serie A Matchday 38.
With 61 points, Roma can’t catch Lazio (67 points) for sixth to qualify for the Europa League Group Stage, but still need to hold off Sassuolo, eighth with 59 points for the Conference League. Roma had been stuttering to the finish line prior to last week’s derby win (2-0) over Lazio. That win, along with a 5-0 home win over Crotone are their only victories in their past seven. On the road, Roma hasn’t won since March 3, a place they are just 5-3-10 (WDL) with a minus-18 goal-differential on the season.
.@acspezia_en 🆚 @TorinoFC1906_En#SerieATIM Matchday 3️⃣7️⃣
Final Result: 4️⃣ – 1️⃣
4 goals for the party: Spezia ensures the next #SerieATIM season!#WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/dRLLuj3AcB
— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) May 17, 2021
But against lower-ranked teams is where Paulo Fonseca’s side has made their hay this year. Roma’s win over Lazio was their first all season against a team in the top eight.
It’s tough to know what sort of Spezia side will show up. Their work is done. They’ve solidified their safety and could let up in their finale. On the other hand, they’ve been a fiesty opponent for many all season and could play with a freedom in their home finale which could see them finding the back of the net—something they’ve done in 11/12 recent matches
This will be the third meeting between the teams this season. Spezia won 3-0 in the Coppa Italia, while Roma won 4-3 four days later in the league.
“Spezia seemed to be considered the runt of the litter, the first team that would go down, but instead they have amazed everyone.”#ASRoma #SpeziaRomahttps://t.co/cHgkxTW25q
— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) May 20, 2021
These teams both rank top four in OVERs this season with Spezia tying Crotone for the most OVER 2.5 tickets cashing at 27-10, while Roma is 24-13.
We should see goals here, but both OVER 2.5 for the game and OVER 1.5 Roma team goals are both priced at just -235. Even both teams to find the back of the net comes in at -205. Spezia are certainly capable of getting on the scoresheet and maybe pulling an upset. But with Roma being the side with the impetus to win, a Roma win (-167) or Roma on the spread (-1 at -107) is my best bet. Alternatively, Roma to win with both teams scoring will offer a tempting +170.
Pick: Roma -1 (-107)