Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are in Chicago to kick off Week 5 on Thursday Night Football. Photo from @BleacherReport (Twitter).
- Thursday Night Football’s Week 5 game features two 3-1 teams in the Buccaneers and Bears
- We hit on two of our three bets last week, to stay in the black at +0.4 units
- Read below for our best bets for TNF Week 5
After our killer Week 3, we stayed above water in Week 4, nailing two of our three wagers, though we passed on a sure thing (a Melvin Gordon TD) for a shot at more value (a Noah Fant TD). File that under “lesson learned.”
Which brings us to this Thursday Night Football tilt, and it features the two quarterbacks who squared off in Super Bowl 52, and boy, have things changed. The Philadelphia Eagles beat the New England Patriots behind backup-turned-Super-Bowl-MVP Nick Foles. He happened to outduel the greatest QB of all-time, Tom Brady.
Foles is now in Chicago, replacing an ineffective Mitch Trubisky and trying to get the Bears back into the win column after a sluggish loss against Indy. He’s hosting Brady, now in Tampa, fresh off his best performance as a Buc in a win over the Chargers. It’s expected to be a clear and balmy 69-degree evening at the 8:20pm ET kickoff.
Visit our Buccaneers vs Bears odds page for all your game betting needs. For now, let’s make some hay with the prop bets below.
Buccaneers vs Bears Player Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Tom Brady (TB)||23.5 (Ov +100 | Un -124)||264.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100)||1.5 (Ov -137 | Un +110)|
|Nick Foles (CHI)||21.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100)||249.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||1.5 (Ov +105 | Un -130)|
|Running Backs||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rushing + Receiving Yards|
|David Montgomery (CHI)||N/A||49.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Ronald Jones II (TB)||N/A||69.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Wide Receiver / Tight End||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|David Montgomery (CHI)||3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -162)||21.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100)||N/A|
|Allen Robinson (CHI)||5.5 (Ov -200 | Un +160)||70.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Darnell Mooney (CHI)||2.5 (Ov -182 | Un +145)||36.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Jimmy Graham (CHI)||3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -157)||31.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Anthony Miller (CHI)||2.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||30.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Rob Gronkowski (TB)||N/A||37.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB)||N/A||18.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Ronald Jones II (TB)||N/A||23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Mike Evans (TB)||N/A||63.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Scotty Miller (TB)||N/A||46.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
Odds taken on October 7 from DraftKings and FanDuel
Tom Will Be Terrific
Brady is coming off his best performance in a Bucs uniform. Since throwing for less than 240 yards in each of his first two starts, he’s quickly adjusting to a new system with no training camp to build continuity with a talented receiving corps.
He looked really good in Week 4, going 30-for-46 for 369 yards and 5 TDs. It’s the third straight game Brady has completed better than 65% of his passes. He’s also had at least 23 completions in all four starts.
Back-to-back throws to Scotty Miller have the @Buccaneers on top! @TomBrady
📺: #LACvsTB on CBS
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/wvEEn0SFTV pic.twitter.com/6TcoRpLCM2
— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2020
The Bears defense has the ninth-best mark for passing yards allowed per game at just over 230 a contest. Since Matthew Stafford threw for 297 yards in Week 1, Chicago has gradually lowered their passing yards allowed in each game, with Phil Rivers tossing for 190 yards last week.
Brady has had a resurgent 2020 so far. If not for wild starts from Russ Wilson, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen, the buzz would be over Brady, who is currently ninth in passing yards, just behind Patrick Mahomes, and tied with Mahomes for fourth with 11 TD passes.
Perfect placement from @TomBrady on this 28-yard TD throw. #GoBucs
📺: #LACvsTB on CBS
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/wvEEn0SFTV pic.twitter.com/DnusGf6XrB
— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2020
I like the value on completions here, but I don’t blame you for taking the over on the pass yards too. Brady has passed for 285+ yards in eight of his last nine night games.
The pick: Brady OVER 23.5 completions (1 unit to win 1.0 unit)
Bucs D Will Close Down Run Game
Talk about a tough couple of weeks at work for Bears’ running back David Montgomery. Last week, he was limited to just 26 yards on 10 totes in a loss to the Colts, his worst performance of the season. He’ll now have to try and find daylight against Tampa’s front. Good luck with that.
More plays from Lavonte David – his 3rd tackle for loss in the past two drives.pic.twitter.com/zPnKwqVWNX
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 13, 2020
Tampa boasts the second-best run defense in the NFL behind only the Steelers, giving up a paltry 64.3 yards a contest. Christian McCaffrey 59 yards on 18 carries (before going down with an ankle injury) is the closest a back has come to breaking 60 yards against the Bucs on the ground.
Since a Week 2 high of 82 yards in a win over the Giants, Montgomery has a total of 72 yards rushing the last two weeks. I don’t see that trend ending here.
Nick Foles hits Jimmy Graham for a TD to cut the Bears (+3.5) deficit to 26-16#BarstoolSportsbook
— Bet The Pigskin (@betthepigskin) September 27, 2020
But let’s add some light to this potentially sad scenario: not being able to move the ball on the ground means more passing, and since Foles took over, Jimmy Graham has been reinvigorated. With Trubisky under center, Graham had eight targets and four receptions. In the two games when Foles has played, Graham has 15 targets and 10 catches.
There’s also this: Graham has more than 36 yards receiving in each of his last eight appearances against Tampa Bay. We’re double dipping here.
The picks: Montgomery UNDER 49.5 yards rushing (0.5 units to win 0.445 units) & Graham OVER 31.5 yards receiving (0.5 units to win 0.445 units)
Buccaneers vs Bears Scoring Props
|Team||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Ronald Jones II (TB)||+475||-162|
|David Montgomery (CHI)||+650||+100|
|Mike Evans (TB)||+650||-106|
|Allen Robinson (CHI)||+900||+140|
|Rob Gronkowski (TB)||+1050||+165|
|Scotty Miller (TB)||+1050||+165|
|Tyler Johnson (TB)||+1400||+240|
|Jimmy Graham (CHI)||+1600||+300|
|Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB)||+1600||+260|
|Leonard Fournette (TB)||+1600||+300|
|Darnell Mooney (CHI)||+1800||+325|
Who Finds Paydirt?
There are some nice longshots that may be worth mentioning, courtesy of our good friends at DraftKings.
Want to go way off the board? Consider that Bears’ wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr has scored a TD in each of his last three home games against the Buccaneers. If he finds paydirt, you’re looking at a +1100 payout.
Is this the game that Rob Gronkowski finally breaks out? He’s scored the first touchdown in each of his two previous appearances against the Bears. That may be too risky for the +1050 odds, but if he’s still good value to find the endzone at +165. With OJ Howard out with injury, perhaps another of Brady’s tight ends cashes in. Cameron Brate has scored a major in four of Tampa’s last six night games, and can be had for +300.
WR focus – Allen Robinson
Robinson has 23 catches for 333 yards & 2 receiving TDs in 4 career games on TNF.
Allen has 3 TDs in 2 career games vs the Bucs and is aiming to make it 3 in a row with a (rec) TD vs Tampa Bay.#DaBears #NFL #NFLUK pic.twitter.com/Ee8KvxQGhf
— NFL Fans UK Podcast 🇬🇧🏈 (@NFLFansUKPod) October 7, 2020
And then we get to the old reliables. Mike Evans has scored a major in four straight Bucs games, and even though he’s battling a foot injury, he should still be the primary featured target while fellow wideout Chris Godwin is out.
On the Bears’ side, Allen Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in six straight games against NFC South opponents.
The pick: Robinson to score any TD (1 unit to win 1.4 units)
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV’s Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric’s work has appeared in local and national publications alike.