Can Tom Brady lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a road win on Monday Night Football? (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the New York Giants on Monday Night Football at 8:15 PM ET
- MNF Picks Record: 1-2 ATS; 2-2 O/U; -1.4 Units
- The Buccaneers have won four of their last five games
The Monday Night Football affair in Week 8 will feature the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey to square off with the New York Giants. Tom Brady and his Bucs are favored to roll in this game but they’re a double-digit favorite. Is betting the Bucs the best play here or is there value elsewhere?
Buccaneers vs Giants Odds
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-670||-12.5 (-110)||Over 45.0 (-110)|
|New York Giants||+490||+12.5 (-110)||Under 45.0 (-110)|
All odds as of October 31 at FanDuel
Bucs Are On A Roll
When the Bucs lost 34-23 to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1, many felt that despite the offseason additions, maybe this team wasn’t going to be a power player in the NFC. Those prognosticators might have been right at the time but the Bucs have slowly built chemistry over the last month while winning four of their last five. They’re now the favorite to win the NFC.
Tampa Bay is arguably the most complete team in the conference because their defense has stepped up. They rank fourth in the NFL yards allowed per game while leading the league in rush defense (66.0 yards per game) and yards-per-carry allowed (3.0). They’ve also had no problem pressuring opposing quarterbacks as they’re second in sacks (25).
When Tom Brady see Antonio Brown in the Bucs locker room pic.twitter.com/HVBB4KbFX2
— Josiah Johnson (@KingJosiah54) October 24, 2020
When that’s added in with an offense that’s starting to find their footing, it’s easy to see why the Bucs are now in the pole position in the NFC. Tom Brady has 18 touchdowns and just four interceptions and hasn’t throw a pick in his last three games. He’s done all of this with inconsistent help from the running game and spotty help from the receivers (due to injuries).
This team is already good and appears to be on the rise. Antonio Brown will be back in the lineup next week and if they can get their entire receiving corps on the field at the same time and get some help from the running game, they’ll continue to ascend up the power rankings.
Giants Are Scuffling
The New York Giants had been a winless team until they faced the Washington Football Team two weeks ago. They went into Washington and survived a late, failed two-point attempt to get the win. New York looked like they were heading for a two-game winning streak as they led 21-10 with 6:17 remaining and ended up losing 22-21 in Philadelphia.
a look at the tape from the Daniel Jones almost touchdown pic.twitter.com/MU3lwbWkgB
— Mike Camerlengo (@MCamerlengo) October 23, 2020
There aren’t many positives to say about the Giants right now as they’re a one-win squad that’s currently in the running for the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The first season under new head coach Joe Judge has delivered very little positives. The chief concern right now is the play of quarterback Daniel Jones, who simply isn’t progressing.
Jones has just five touchdowns on the season and is 22nd in terms of QBR at 60.7. His propensity for turnovers is hurting the team as he has seven interceptions and four fumbles, which means he’s averaging more than double the turnovers (1.6) per game than touchdown passes (0.7).
What’s The Best Bet?
The number keeps climbing on the Bucs as they opened at -10 and are now up to -13. Most of the value has been sucked out of that line. The other good option is the under but the movement there has indicated that we’ve missed the boat as it has dropped from 48 to 45.
The internet wins again.
Recap of Giants win probability at the end of the game… in Daniel Jones form 😂😭 pic.twitter.com/xICjt9whao
— Coy Wire (@CoyWire) October 23, 2020
At any rate, under is the way to go. The Giants offense won’t be scoring much in this spot while the Giants defense is decent enough to slow down Tampa Bay a little bit. The Giants are ranked eighth in run defense and should be able to provide some resistance there.
As for the Bucs, they’ll be without Chris Godwin here and wideouts like Mike Evans and Scotty Miller are dealing with nagging injuries. That should help contribute to an under here.
Prediction: Under 45 (-110)
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He’s interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O’Neal and Floyd Mayweather.