Scotty Miller racked up 6 catches, 109 yards and a TD in Week 8. Photo by @DraftDiamonds (Twitter).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers clash with the New York Giants on Monday Night Football (Nov. 2nd, 8:15 pm EST)
- Our MNF prop bets were 1-2 in Week 7 (2020 season: +1.72 units)
- Read below for analysis and our favorite Monday Night Football prop bets
The biggest mismatch of Week 8 featured the Kansas City Chiefs versus the New York Jets, but Monday’s matchup is a close second. The 5-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to the Meadowlands to face the 1-6 New York Giants (Nov. 2nd, 8:15pm EST), as massive 12.5-point favorites.
Time for the #BigTimeThrows of the week.
Going with three deep passes, starting with Tom Brady dropping it in a bucket to Scotty Miller in the back of the end zone pic.twitter.com/lbRP2JxYG3
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) October 27, 2020
The Bucs enter play as the number one rated team by DVOA, while the lowly Giants sit 29th. Tampa Bay will be missing star wideout Chris Godwin due to a finger injury, and with newly-signed Antonio Brown not eligible to play until Week 9, the door is wide open for Scotty Miller to deliver another strong performance.
Buccaneers vs Giants Player Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Tom Brady (TB)||N/A||260.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||1.5 (Ov -177 | Un +140)|
|Daniel Jones (NYG)||19.5 (Ov -137 | Un +110)||219.5 (Ov -112 | Un -118)||1.5 (Ov +178 | Un -230)|
|Running Backs||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Ronald Jones (TB)||15.5 (Ov -132 | Un +106)||61.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||72.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Leonard Fournette (TB)||N/A||45.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Wayne Gallman (NYG)||10.5 (Ov -137 | Un +110)||37.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||52.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Dion Lewis (NYG)||N/A||12.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Wide Receivers + Tight Ends||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Mike Evans (TB)||N/A||48.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Scotty Miller (TB)||N/A||46.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Darius Slayton (NYG)||3.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108)||48.5 (Ov +116 | Un -148)||20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Sterling Shepard (NYG)||3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +125)||44.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||19.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Golden Tate (NYG)||2.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||29.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||16.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Rob Gronkowski (TB)||N/A||39.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Eva n Engram (NYG)||3.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||34.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||15.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
All Odds taken Nov. 1 at DraftKings.
Prop #1: Scotty Miller Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
Believe it or not, Miller actually leads Tampa Bay in receiving yards this season. He’s hauled in at least 70 yards in four of six games, and is fresh off a career-best 6 catch, 109 yard effort against Las Vegas.
Second-year WR Scotty Miller (@MillerTime___10) ranks 5th in the NFL this season in yards per reception (min. 20 receptions).
2020 Y/R Leaders:
1. D. Metcalf – 21.6
2. J. Jefferson – 19.2
3. D. Moore – 18.3
4. K. Golladay – 16.9
5. S. MILLER – 16.6#GoBucs | 📸 @kyle_zedaker pic.twitter.com/5v7xa38rBL
— Andrew Holman (@andrew_holman2) October 28, 2020
Tom Brady is famous for peppering his slot receivers, and Miller’s outlook versus the Giants is very promising. Fellow slot receivers CeeDee Lamb, Juju Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp have all torched the New York secondary this season.
Edelman watching Brady with Scotty Miller in Tampa: pic.twitter.com/YySN8yNAHW
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 25, 2020
The Giants will be down three of their primary pass rushers as well, which should lead to plenty of time for Brady to scan the field and find his new favorite target.
Pick: Scotty Miller over 46.5 receiving yards (-112), 1 unit
Prop #2: Evan Engram Over 3.5 Receptions
As a near two-touchdown underdog against the Buccaneers, it’s safe to assume that game script will not be in New York’s favor. That means elevated pass attempts for Daniel Jones, and against the fierce Tampa Bay pass rush he’ll need to get the ball out quickly.
When you’re No. 1 in total defense, you’ve got to have handshakes 🤝 pic.twitter.com/pdENzjZaT1
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) October 25, 2020
Enter Evan Engram, who should be the recipient of plenty of quick throws from Jones. Against a similarly strong pass rush last week in Philadelphia, Engram drew a season-high 9 targets, and ranked second among all tight ends with a 29% team air yards share.
The best incompletion of the week goes to Daniel Jones who hits Evan Engram in stride for what should have clinched the game pic.twitter.com/VH0p0CMFRT
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) October 27, 2020
Of course, he’ll be best known for his key drop in the final two minutes, but it’s impossible to ignore Engram’s usage. He played on 80% of the team’s offensive snaps, and has a far better matchup than New York’s outside receivers.
Pick: Evan Engram over 3.5 receptions (-112), 1 unit
Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker
Buccnaeers vs Giants Scoring Props
|Player||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Mike Evans (TB)||+550||-121|
|Ronald Jones (TB)||+750||+110|
|Leonard Fournette (TB)||+950||+150|
|Scotty Miller (TB)||+1000||+165|
|Wayne Gallman (NYG)||+1100||+180|
|Rob Gronkowski (TB)||+1100||+190|
|Darius Slayton (NYG)||+1800||+300|
|Evan Engram (NYG)||+2000||+350|
|Golden Tate (NYG)||+2000||+350|
|Tyler Johnson (TB)||+2000||+375|
|Cameron Brate (TB)||+2000||+375|
|Sterling Shepard (NYG)||+2200||+400|
|Tom Brady (TB)||+2200||+450|
|Dion Lewis (NYG)||+2500||+450|
|Daniel Jones (NYG)||+3000||+525|
Prop #3: Gronk Strikes First
With the top-four favorites on the TD props board all Buccaneers, it’s no secret who oddsmakers are expecting to strike first. Any of those top-four would make an excellent first touchdown candidate, but don’t sleep on Rob Gronkowski at +1100.
Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski connected for their 92nd TD together, tying them with Steve Young and Jerry Rice for the second-most in NFL history 👏 pic.twitter.com/MBCcnr3A7C
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 25, 2020
The 31-year-old has hit paydirt in back-to-back outings, and leads the tight end position in targets per route run over the last three weeks. He has six red zone targets this season, four of which have come inside the 10-yard line. When Brady and the Bucs get in close Gronk is often the first read, while the Giants have surrendered back-to-back big games to tight ends Richard Rodgers and Logan Thomas.
Pick: Rob Gronkowski first TD scorer (+1100), 0.25 units
Chris began his career at Hockey Night in Canada over 15 years ago. He has since worked at TSN for over 12 years as a writer, line-up producer, field producer, newsroom supervisor for Sportscentre, and presently as a promotions producer.