Calgary Flames vs Dallas Stars Game 5 Odds and Pick

John Klingberg scored the OT-winner for the Dallas Stars as they tied their series with the Calgary Flames 2-2. Photo Courtesy: @DallasStars (Twitter).

  • John Klingberg scored the OT winner for the Stars to tie the series 2-2
  • Joe Pavelski netted a hat-trick, including the game-tying goal
  • Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game

It was wild, it was crazy, but the Dallas Stars tied the series.

There were four lead changes on Sunday afternoon between the Stars and Flames. And following a disallowed goal two minutes before, the Stars were able to tie the game with just 12 seconds to go.

Now, in a series that was a pick’em from the start, it’s a best of three.

Flames vs Stars Game 5 Odds

Team Moneyline Puckline Total at DraftKings
Calgary Flames +113 +1.5 (-265) Over 5 (-143)
Dallas Stars -130 -1.5 (+210) Under 5 (+118)

Odds as of Aug. 16th.

The Stars continue to cement their status as favorites the longer this series goes.

In our Game 4 preview, the Stars were at -122, up from -109. In that same time, the Flames have slipped back from -107.

Things continue to shift in the Stars vs Flames series odds. Calgary had gone ahead after Game 3, but it’s Dallas who has now pulled significantly ahead.

Stars Offense Continues to Dominate Flames

Cam Talbot did all he could to steal Game 4 the same way he did Game 3.

After a 35-save shutout, Talbot faced 64 shots in Game 4, stopping 59 of them. The ice was tilted in the Stars’ favor, which is a trend that has continued the past three games.

Stars Game 4 Possession Numbers

Period Shots Taken CF% FF% Scoring Chances For High-Danger Chances For High-Danger Chances %
1st 11 52.27 50.0 14 5 50.0
2nd 18 57.14 63..64 15 9 69.23
3rd 21 79.55 75 19 8 80.0
4th 12 70.97 72.73 7 3 100

Going back to our Game 4 preview, we looked at how the Stars have steadily been dominating the Flames.

Calgary was out-shot in each of the final three periods, including 12-5 in overtime. They never hit double-digits in scoring chances, while the Stars lapped them multiple times in high-danger chances. The two were equal in the first with five apiece, but Dallas racked up a 20-6 advantage.

Dallas’ expected goals-for had been climbing, and the Flames’ Corsi and Fenwick percentages were in the 30s for Games 2 and 3. If it wasn’t for Talbot in Game 3, this series could easily be 3-1 Stars.

Joe Pavelski led Dallas with eight shots, while John Klingberg, Alex Radulov and Roope Hintz had six each.

2020 Stanley Cup Odds Tracker

Dallas’ Dynamic Blueline Duo

After a quiet Game 1, Tyler Seguin emerged from the shadows and re-asserted himself as one of the NHL’s top players.

But while he’s been great, his performance isn’t the real reason why the Stars have made it back to this point. It starts, and ends, with their elite blueliners.

John Klingberg, Miro Heiskanen vs Flames

1 Goals 2
4 Assists 2
+2 Plus/Minus +4
8 Hits 2
3 Blocked Shots 8
25:04 Average Time-on-Ice 28:05

At 21, Heiskanen has the higher ceiling of the two, and is using the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs to display his two-way game. But Klingberg has been just as effective.

When the series started, we identified the Stars defense as a strength. We also figured they’d be able to keep Calgary’s top line at bay. And while Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan woke up in Game 4, Dallas has largely done a good job at that.

But, despite the punishment they’ve taken, the duo has keyed the Stars’ offensive resurgence. At 5v5 the two have taken the second and sixth-most hits in the playoffs, and have the 11th and 12th best iFF rates among defensemen according to Natural StatTrick.

Can Stars’ Keep Offense Clicking?

Goals have not been hard to come by in this series. While Game 1 was a push, Games 2 and 4 hit the over easily.

And with the way the Stars have been dominating offensively the past two games, you can expect that to continue. But with a lot of late scoring taking place, three games have been decided by one goal.

Based on that, it’s fair to expect Calgary to cover in Game 5. But if you’re betting outright, back the Stars.

Picks: Dallas Stars (-130), OVER (-143)

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Bryan Thiel

NFL MLB NHL Sports Writer