Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady reacts after winning the NFC championship NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers in Green Bay, Wis., Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021. The Buccaneers defeated the Packers 31-26 to advance to the Super Bowl. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC and will now be the first team ever to play in a Super Bowl in their host stadium.
- The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC and have opened as a 3.5-point favorite to win the Super Bowl.
- Read below for opening moneyline odds and a breakdown of how both team’s odds have moved.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have advanced to Super Bowl LV and now become the first team ever to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium. To win, they’ll have to go through the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, who won the AFC.
The Chiefs have opened as a -175 favorite on the moneyline, according to the Super Bowl odds. Which way will the moneyline move for this contest and what’s the best time to bet this game? Let’s take a closer look:
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Opening Odds
|Kansas City Chiefs||-186|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+156|
Odds as of Jan 24th at FanDuel
Bucs Outlast Packers
The Bucs beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 6 of the regular season mostly in part to the Packers making mistakes and the same story played out on Sunday in the NFC Championship Game. The Packers allowed just 21 sacks all season long but gave up four to the Bucs in the first meeting and five on Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers threw just six interceptions all season long but three came in the two games with the Bucs. The Packers had a costly fumble early in the second half, which was uncharacteristic of them. They had a league-best 11 giveaways on the year but four came in games against Tampa Bay.
TOM BRADY IS GOING BACK TO THE SUPER BOWL 🐐 @TomBrady @Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/DJrAuIBT2H
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) January 24, 2021
The difference this time around was that the Bucs were a little bit sloppy themselves. Tom Brady threw three interceptions. A once-comfortable 18-point lead in the second half was trimmed to five but the Packers weren’t able to get any closer.
One of the better coached teams in the league, the Packers made a couple of mind-boggling decisions at the end of both halves. At the end of the first, they gave up a 38-yard touchdown on the last play. At the end of the second half, the Packers kicked a 26-yard field goal trailing 31-23 with 2:05 remaining instead of going for a shot at the end zone on fourth down. They would never end up getting the ball back.
BUCS FORCE A FUMBLE ON AARON JONES 😳
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 24, 2021
For the Bucs, they have to be happy with the win — especially given that the offense has much room for improvement. There were three interceptions, six dropped passes and the ground game produced just 76 yards on 3.6 yards-per-carry. The defense saved the day while the offense did enough. Now they’re back in the Super Bowl for the first time since 2003.
Chiefs Outclass Bills In AFC Championship Game
The Buffalo Bills couldn’t have asked for a better start to the AFC Championship Game as they held a 9-0 lead at the end of the first quarter. Unfortunately for them, the Chiefs woke up and scored 38 of the next 44 points in the game. The Bills offense never quite looked like himself as they completely underperformed expectations.
The Bills had no ground game to rely on as they finished with just 129 rushing yards but 88 of it came from Allen. That meant that the offense was much more predictable and easier to defend. The Chiefs made sure that Stefon Diggs, the NFL’s leading receiver, didn’t get loose, and the Bills didn’t have any answers beyond that.
Mahomes can feel it 🙌
Back-to-back Super Bowl trips.
(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/6wKibRLt9V
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 25, 2021
The Chiefs’ offense started slow but was unstoppable after that. After punting on their opening series, the Chiefs scored touchdowns on five of their final eight possessions. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes showed no ill-effects of a concussion, which is a great sign for the team going forward.
Which Way Will The Moneyline Move?
The Bucs odds have had quite the journey to this point and they’re likely to shift some more as we approach kickoff. This is a team who had odds of +1333 to win the Super Bowl in late December and have seen those numbers shorten as they knock off teams on the road each week. They were at +1100 at the start of the playoffs, +767 after their first win and +400 before the Championship Game.
As for the Chiefs, their odds have been steady. They started the year as the favorite to win it all at about +650, and while the odds have shortened, there’s was much room for them to get lower. They were at +207 just last week and that’s mostly where they’ve been throughout the entire playoffs.
Tom Brady threw three interceptions … and he’s going to the Super Bowl pic.twitter.com/qEUFhc6AsL
— The Ringer (@ringer) January 24, 2021
If you want to bet the Chiefs, you’re best to get in at this point. The public is going to hop on board and push this line up. The Bucs did get a respectable win over the Packers in the NFC Championship Game but the Packers made mistakes that helped Tampa Bay win. The New Orleans Saints did as well in the Divisional Round.
If the Chiefs play a clean game and they typically do, they should get the win. On the other hand, if you’re a Bucs backer, you’re better off to wait as this line should only climb.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He’s interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O’Neal and Floyd Mayweather.