Chiefs vs Dolphins Odds, Lines and Spread

Patrick Mahomes dropping back to pass

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks to pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos Sunday, Dec. 6, 2020, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

  • The visiting Kansas City Chiefs are seven-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium
  • John Perrotto Betting Record: 7-6-1 (0.4 units won)
  • Get the odds, analysis and our betting prediction below

The Kansas City Chiefs return to the site of their Super Bowl triumph, but they might not want to spend too much time reminiscing about the night of Feb. 2.

Winners of seven straight, the Chiefs (11-1) will face another hot team when they visit the Miami Dolphins (8-4) at 1pm ET Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium.

The Chiefs, of course, beat the San Francisco 49ers in last season’s Super Bowl at Hard Rock.

The Dolphins have won seven of their last eight games, though they are decided underdogs in this game.

Chiefs vs Dolphins Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Kansas City Chiefs -360 -7 (-114) Over 50.5 (-114)
Miami Dolphins +290 +7 (-106) Under 50.5 (-106)

Odds taken Dec. 12 from FanDuel

Dolphins’ Defense Opportunistic

The Chiefs’ offense is often unstoppable with Patrick Mahomes running the show. Kansas City is first in the NFL in total offense (427.6 ypg) and second in points scored (30.8 ppg).

However, it will be interesting to see how the Chiefs match up with the Dolphins’ opportunistic defense.

Miami is second in the league with 22 takeaways and scoring defense (17.7 ypg). That offsets the Dolphins’ standing of 16th in total defense (355.2 ypg).

The Dolphins have had a takeaway in 18 straight games, the longest active streak in the league.

Cornerback Xavien Howard’s eight interceptions lead the NFL and he has had a pick in four straight games for the second time this season.

The only other player to have two such streaks in the same season since 1970 was Hall-of-Famer Lester Hayes in 1980 for the Oakland Raiders.

The Chiefs, though, have the fewest turnovers in the league with eight. Mahomes has thrown just two interceptions in 463 attempts.

It’s Tua Time

The Dolphins are hoping rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can do for them what Mahomes has done for the Chiefs.

While Tagovailoa has not yet proven to be as dynamic, the Dolphins are 4-1 in his five starts since he replaced veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tagovailoa is also just the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era to not throw an interception in his first five career starts. The other two are Dak Prescott and Kyle Allen.

So far, the Dolphins have asked Tagovailoa to be more of a game manager. However, he did throw for a season-best 296 yards in the Dolphins’ 19-7 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week as 10.5-point favorites.

The Chiefs do not figure to be as favorable of a matchup as they are 13th in the league in pass defense (225.8 ypg). The Bengals ranked 25th.

Look for the Dolphins to rely on running back Myles Gaskin against a Kansas City run defense (132.4) that is 27th. He rushed for 90 yards on 21 carries last week after missing the previous four games because of a knee injury.

Injury Report

Chiefs linebacker Damien Wilson (knee) will miss the game. He is third on the team with 65 tackles.

Sitting out for the Dolphins will be left guard Ereck Flowers (ankle) and rookie reserve running back Salvon Ahmed (shoulder).

Pro Football Focus ranks Flowers 40th out of 84 NFL guards. Ahmed has accounted for 202 total yards and one touchdown on 46 touches.

Hill Shined Last Time

The Chiefs won the last meeting between the teams, 29-13 at home on Christmas Eve in 2017 as 11-point favorites.

Alex Smith was the Chiefs’ quarterback in that game and Mahomes the rookie backup. Tyreek Hill caught six passes for 109 yards and Harrison Butker kicked five field goals.

Dolphins wideout Jakeem Grant had four receptions for 107 yards.

In Summation

The Dolphins have the best record in the NFL against the spread at 9-3. Look for their defense to play the Chiefs tough and at least make it a close game.

The Pick: Dolphins +7 (-106)

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John Perrotto