Copa America Golden Boot Odds Favor Neymar, Messi & Suarez


Colombia's Luis Muriel celebrating with fist pumps after scoring a goal.

Colombia’s Luis Muriel celebrates scoring his side’s second goal against Venezuela during a qualifying soccer match for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 in Barranquilla, Colombia, Friday, Oct. 9, 2020. (Gabriel Aponte/Pool via AP)

  • Former teammates Neymar, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez lead the Golden Boot odds for the Copa America
  • Brazil is favored to win the tournament, with Neymar topping the Golden Boot betting
  • Read below for the latest Copa America odds and betting analysis

Neymar, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez are the favorites to win the Copa America Golden Boot. None of the three have finished as top scorer in the tournament previously.

Everton and Paolo Guerrero were tied for Golden Boot honors in 2019. The pair scored just three goals apiece, the lowest tally to finish as top scorer since 1983. Guerrero was tied with Eduardo Vargas in 2016, with the pair scoring four times each. In each of the other competitions since 1997, the Golden Boot winner has needed five or more goals.

Jair da Rosa Pinto, Humberto Maschio and Javier Ambrois are tied for the most prolific campaigns in Copa America history on nine goals.

Copa America Golden Boot Odds

Player Odds To Win Golden Boot
Neymar (Brazil) +300
Lionel Messi (Argentina) +450
Luis Suarez (Uruguay) +650
Lautaro Martinez (Argentina) +800
Edinson Cavani (Uruguay) +1400
Roberto Firmino (Brazil) +1400
Duvan Zapata (Colombia) +1600
Luis Muriel (Colombia) +1800
Sergio Aguero (Argentina) +2000
Gabriel Jesus (Brazil) +2000
Richarlison (Brazil) +2000
Alexis Sanchez (Chile) +2000
Eduardo Vargas (Chile) +2500
Andre Carrillo (Peru) +6600
Enner Valencia (Ecuador) +6600
Miguel Almiron (Paraguay) +10000
Salomon Rondon (Venezuela) +10000
Angel di Maria (Argentina) +15000
Marcelo Moreno (Bolivia) +20000

Odds as of June 12th from DraftKings

Unstoppable Brazil

Comfortably favored to win the tournament, Brazil might just have too much for their opponents. Neymar has 66 goals in 105 caps, and the 29-year-old brings good form into the competition with three goals in his last five starts.

Although heโ€™ll be coming in from the flank, Neymar has complete freedom when he pulls on a Brazil shirt. Richarlison and Roberto Firmino will likely join Neymar in the front three to start the Copa America, with Vinicius and Gabriel Jesus sitting on the bench.

His record for Brazil is phenomenal. As the tournament favorites, thereโ€™s minimal concern about an early exit. In a tournament when just five or six goals can be enough to win the Golden Boot, though, the +300 price is far too short to represent real value.

Messi Drops Deeper

Argentina have never quite got the mix right in the final third. Lionel Messiโ€™s role has been altered throughout the years, and with some elite goal scoring talent in Lautaro Martinez and Sergio Aguero, Messi may be forced into more of a playmaker role once again.

Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni has tweaked the lineup and system a lot of late. At least one of Martinez and Aguero will start alongside Messi, who has an underwhelming Copa America record with nine goals in 27 matches.

It wouldnโ€™t be a surprise if Messi lit up the tournament and broke records, particularly with group games against Bolivia and Paraguay. Even so, Martinez at +800 is better value than Messi at +450.

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Colombian Duo

Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata are interesting options in this market. With familiarity on their side as teammates at club and international level, the Atalanta duo are both coming off strong Serie A campaigns. Their international records donโ€™t inspire much confidence, however.

Muriel has eight goals in 38 caps, while Zapata has four in 22. That doesnโ€™t paint a fair picture of how well the pair played this season. Muriel scored 22 times in Serie A, good for third in the goal scoring charts. Zapata ranked third in non-penalty expected goals in Italyโ€™s top flight, ahead of Lautaro Martinez and Ciro Immboile.

The hot finishing of Muriel makes him the better option of the two, though thereโ€™s naturally some concern about Colombiaโ€™s credentials. The Argentinians and Brazilians could have the benefit of two or three extra matches.

Cavani Over Suarez

Edinson Cavani missed Uruguayโ€™s recent matches because of a suspension, but the Manchester United man will be ready to go once the tournament gets underway. Cavani and Luis Suarez have been one of the most feared attacking duos in the world for the best part of a decade, and even with them both into their thirties, they are as dangerous as ever.

Suarez has a great season for Atletico, scoring 22 as Diego Simeoneโ€™s team won the title. Cavaniโ€™s quantity wasnโ€™t quite the same, though he was every bit as prolific. Across all competitions this season, Cavani scored a goal every 114 minutes compared to Suarezโ€™s mark of 142.

Cavani really stands out at that price. The only question about backing him is availability and durability in an intense few weeks of football.

Best Bets: Luis Muriel (+1800); Edinson Cavani (+1400)

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Sam Cox

NBA
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NBA
MLB
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