Colombia’s Luis Muriel celebrates scoring his side’s second goal against Venezuela during a qualifying soccer match for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 in Barranquilla, Colombia, Friday, Oct. 9, 2020. (Gabriel Aponte/Pool via AP)
- Former teammates Neymar, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez lead the Golden Boot odds for the Copa America
- Brazil is favored to win the tournament, with Neymar topping the Golden Boot betting
- Read below for the latest Copa America odds and betting analysis
Neymar, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez are the favorites to win the Copa America Golden Boot. None of the three have finished as top scorer in the tournament previously.
Everton and Paolo Guerrero were tied for Golden Boot honors in 2019. The pair scored just three goals apiece, the lowest tally to finish as top scorer since 1983. Guerrero was tied with Eduardo Vargas in 2016, with the pair scoring four times each. In each of the other competitions since 1997, the Golden Boot winner has needed five or more goals.
Jair da Rosa Pinto, Humberto Maschio and Javier Ambrois are tied for the most prolific campaigns in Copa America history on nine goals.
Copa America Golden Boot Odds
|Player||Odds To Win Golden Boot|
|Lionel Messi (Argentina)||+450|
|Luis Suarez (Uruguay)||+650|
|Lautaro Martinez (Argentina)||+800|
|Edinson Cavani (Uruguay)||+1400|
|Roberto Firmino (Brazil)||+1400|
|Duvan Zapata (Colombia)||+1600|
|Luis Muriel (Colombia)||+1800|
|Sergio Aguero (Argentina)||+2000|
|Gabriel Jesus (Brazil)||+2000|
|Alexis Sanchez (Chile)||+2000|
|Eduardo Vargas (Chile)||+2500|
|Andre Carrillo (Peru)||+6600|
|Enner Valencia (Ecuador)||+6600|
|Miguel Almiron (Paraguay)||+10000|
|Salomon Rondon (Venezuela)||+10000|
|Angel di Maria (Argentina)||+15000|
|Marcelo Moreno (Bolivia)||+20000|
Odds as of June 12th from DraftKings
Comfortably favored to win the tournament, Brazil might just have too much for their opponents. Neymar has 66 goals in 105 caps, and the 29-year-old brings good form into the competition with three goals in his last five starts.
Although he’ll be coming in from the flank, Neymar has complete freedom when he pulls on a Brazil shirt. Richarlison and Roberto Firmino will likely join Neymar in the front three to start the Copa America, with Vinicius and Gabriel Jesus sitting on the bench.
📸 Neymar in training for Brazil ahead of the Copa América 🇧🇷 pic.twitter.com/YT8jZvSJd8
— 𝗡𝗲𝘆𝗺𝗮𝗿 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 (@Neymoleque) June 12, 2021
His record for Brazil is phenomenal. As the tournament favorites, there’s minimal concern about an early exit. In a tournament when just five or six goals can be enough to win the Golden Boot, though, the +300 price is far too short to represent real value.
Messi Drops Deeper
Argentina have never quite got the mix right in the final third. Lionel Messi’s role has been altered throughout the years, and with some elite goal scoring talent in Lautaro Martinez and Sergio Aguero, Messi may be forced into more of a playmaker role once again.
Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni has tweaked the lineup and system a lot of late. At least one of Martinez and Aguero will start alongside Messi, who has an underwhelming Copa America record with nine goals in 27 matches.
Image: Messi during training with Argentina. 🇦🇷 pic.twitter.com/aQpMT6U9Kt
— barcacentre (@barcacentre) June 8, 2021
It wouldn’t be a surprise if Messi lit up the tournament and broke records, particularly with group games against Bolivia and Paraguay. Even so, Martinez at +800 is better value than Messi at +450.
Crazy BetMGM Promo Allows Bettors to Bet $20 on Any Event, and Win $100 Even if Their Wager Loses
Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata are interesting options in this market. With familiarity on their side as teammates at club and international level, the Atalanta duo are both coming off strong Serie A campaigns. Their international records don’t inspire much confidence, however.
Muriel has eight goals in 38 caps, while Zapata has four in 22. That doesn’t paint a fair picture of how well the pair played this season. Muriel scored 22 times in Serie A, good for third in the goal scoring charts. Zapata ranked third in non-penalty expected goals in Italy’s top flight, ahead of Lautaro Martinez and Ciro Immboile.
The hot finishing of Muriel makes him the better option of the two, though there’s naturally some concern about Colombia’s credentials. The Argentinians and Brazilians could have the benefit of two or three extra matches.
Cavani Over Suarez
Edinson Cavani missed Uruguay’s recent matches because of a suspension, but the Manchester United man will be ready to go once the tournament gets underway. Cavani and Luis Suarez have been one of the most feared attacking duos in the world for the best part of a decade, and even with them both into their thirties, they are as dangerous as ever.
Two Reds are heading to the #CopaAmerica 🌎🏆
🇺🇾 @ECavaniOfficial 🇺🇾
🇧🇷 @Fred08Oficial 🇧🇷#MUFC pic.twitter.com/rDehbiaatY
— Manchester United (@ManUtd) June 11, 2021
Suarez has a great season for Atletico, scoring 22 as Diego Simeone’s team won the title. Cavani’s quantity wasn’t quite the same, though he was every bit as prolific. Across all competitions this season, Cavani scored a goal every 114 minutes compared to Suarez’s mark of 142.
Cavani really stands out at that price. The only question about backing him is availability and durability in an intense few weeks of football.
Best Bets: Luis Muriel (+1800); Edinson Cavani (+1400)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.