Daniel Evans vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds & Prediction

Daniel Evans vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece looks on during his quarterfinal match of the Monte Carlo Tennis Masters tournament with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina of Spain, in Monaco, Friday, April 16, 2021. Tsitsipas won the match 7-5/0-0 after Fokina retired with an injury. (AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias)

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing his sixth Masters 1000 semifinal; Dan Evans is playing his first
  • Tsitsipas is the heavy favorite for the match, to be played Saturday at 7:30 am EDT
  • Evans is having a career tournament on clay; we break down his chances for the upset

It’s easy to have a letdown the day after you upset the world No. 1.

But Daniel Evans backed up his momentous victory over Novak Djokovic with another upset in the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals Thursday, this time over No. 11 seed David Goffin of Belgium.

Daniel Evans vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
Dan Evans (GBR) +4.5 (+114) +390 O 20.5 (-124)
[4] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) -4.5 (-141) -500 U 20.5 (+100)

Odds as of April 16

Evans on a Singles and Doubles Roll

The 30-year old Brit has had a busy week on court in Monaco, as he’s gone deep into the week in both singles and doubles.

In addition to the singles victories, Evans and countryman Ken Skupski defeated the solid Belgian team of Joran Vliegen and Sander Gille in the first round of doubles. And then they upset the reigning Australian Open champion and No. 3 seeds, Ivan Dodig of Croatia and Filip Polasek of Slovakia before winning again on Friday to reach the semifinals.

It’s a lot of tennis: double-headers on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. And then another one in store on Saturday.

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Daniel Evans’s Road to Monte-Carlo Singles Semis

Round Opponent Score
R1 Dusan Lajovic (SRB) 6-3, 6-7 (11), 6-2
R2 [13] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) 6-4, 6-1
R3 [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) 6-4, 7-5
QF [11] David Goffin (BEL) 5-7, 6-3, 6-4

Easy Day for Tsitsipas Friday

As Evans was fighting back against Goffin on Friday – two hours and 42 minutes just for the singles, with doubles after that – Tsitsipas had an easy day at the office.

Facing Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the Greek world No. 5 won a tight first set 7-5.

And then Davidovich Fokina retired from the match with an ankle injury that had clearly been hampering him throughout most of the set.

Daniel Evans vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Previous Matches

Year Tournament Score Winner
2020 Hamburg (Clay – R32) 6-3, 6-1 Tsitsipas
2020 Dubai (Hard – SF) 6-2, 6-3 Tsitsipas

With a first-round bye, and the retirement from Davidovich Fokina, Tsitsipas has played just five sets of singles compared to Evans’s nine this week.

Tsitsipas also played doubles with his brother Petros. But they lost in the second round, and he had better scheduling. So he is by far the fresher player.

Daniel Evans vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Head-to-Head

30 (May 23, 1990) Age 22 (Aug. 12, 1998)
Birmingham, England Birthplace Athens, Greece
5-9 Height 6-4
1 Career ATP Singles Titles 5
No. 26 (Feb. 8, 2021) Career High Ranking No. 5 (Aug. 5, 2019)
No. 33 Current Ranking  No. 5
$3,492,505 Career Prize Money $13,537,892
10-5 2021 Won/Loss record 20-5
0 Career Head to Head 2

Tsitsipas’s Best Surface is Clay

It’s fairly well-known that clay is Evans’s worst surface. It’s a surface he appears only now, at 30, to have the fitness, patience, and understanding to have success on.

But for Tsitipas, winning-percentage-wise, it’s his best surface. He has one career title on clay, at a small event in Estoril, Portugal. But he also reached the finals of the Masters 1000 tournament in Madrid in 2019 (which is at altitude, and therefore a little quicker), in Barcelona in 2018 (a 500 tournament) and also in Hamburg in 2020.

Tsitsipas shocked Nadal in the semis in Madrid, before Djokovic defeated him in that 2019 final.

The question will be if Evans’s variety can throw him off enough.  And the other question is whether Evans’s body will continue to treat him kindly despite all the tennis he has played this week.

Tsitsipas also has variety in his game. And he’ll present quite a different challenge to Evans compared to his previous opponents. Tsitsipas also has the biggest serve Evans has faced in singles this week.

The Brit’s odds improved a little bit throughout Friday afternoon. But he’s still a significant long shot.

The last match on clay between the two was a mismatch. But Evans is a different player on the surface with his effort this week.

There might be a little value in the game totals at +106 for over 21.5 games, which could work out to something like a 7-5, 6-4 Tsitsipas victory.

Best Bet: Tsitsipas in two sets (-157) 

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Stephanie Myles

MLB NHL Tennis Sports Writer

MLB NHL Tennis