Denis Shapovalov vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds & Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime hitting a backhand return during a tennis match.

Felix Auger-Aliassime of Canada returns to John Isner during the Miami Open tennis tournament, Sunday, March 28, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)

  • Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime will face each other in the Round of 16 at the Barcelona Open Thursday, April 22nd at 5:00 AM ET
  • This will be the fifth meeting between the young Canadians
  • See below for the odds of what is expected to be a tight match, and our best bet analysis

It’s an all-Canadian showdown in Barcelona as Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime go head-to-head in the Round of 16 at The Barcelona Open. This will already be the second time these two have faced each other this year.

22-year old Shapovalov is coming off a straight set win against Jeremy Chardy, while Auger-Aliassime is coming off a come from behind win, where he had to come back after dropping the first set against opponent Lorenzo Musetti.

With a split head-to-head record, and such close odds heading into this match, expect it to be an exciting one. Take a look below as we breakdown both players’ previous match at the tournament, and what we might be able to expect on Thursday.

Denis Shapovalov vs Felix Auger Aliassime Barcelona Open Round of 16 Odds

Prop Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
[7] Denis Shapovalov +1.5 (-129) -103 O 22.5 (-105)
[10] Felix Auger-Aliassime -1.5 (+102) -121 U 22.5 (-121)

Odds as of April 21st.

It’s not a surprise that either player is here, as both entered the tournament within the Top 10 odds to win outright. But no one’s opening odds came close to 11-time champion, Rafael Nadal, who was the very strong favorite once again.

Shapovalov Opens His Clay Court Season With A Win

Shapovalov, who received a bye in the first round, saw himself up against a familiar opponent, who he’s had great success against, Jeremy Chardy. Shapovalov defeated Chardy in straight sets, winning 6-3, 7-5, improving his head-to-head record against the Frenchman to 4-0.

In a match that lasted just over an hour and half, Shapovalov recorded nine aces, and managed to win 68 percent of his points when getting his first serve in, compared to Chardy’s 58 percent.

This win is a great start to the tournament for Shapovalov, but also a great start to his 2021 clay court season. He’ll now look forward to playing longtime friend and fellow Canadian, Auger-Aliassime.

2021 French Open Odds Tracker

Auger-Aliassime’s First Win Under Toni Nadal

With his second round win against Musetti, the 20-year old Canadian has earned his first clay court win of 2021. This also marks his first win with new coach, Toni Nadal. Nadal, also known as “Uncle Toni,” is the uncle and former coach of Rafael Nadal.

The two began working together in the lead up to the Monte-Carlo Masters, where the Canadian ended up having an early exit, going down in the Round of 64.

It’s still in the early stages of this partnership, but is this the tournament where we see results of this pairing?

Despite going down in that first set 4-6, Auger-Aliassime came back to win 4-6, 6-3, 6-0. A clear change in tone of the match, ending with Musetti unable to even steal a game in that deciding set. Noticeably battling some sort of back injury, Musetti was struggling to move well towards the end of the match.

However, throughout the match, Auger-Aliassime was able to save six of eight breakpoints, and won 75 percent of points when he got his first serve in, compared to his opponent’s 56 percent.

He now looks to take on Shapovalov, who he knows all too well.

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

With just a year apart in age, these two have come up the ranks together. Their last match came earlier this year at the Australian Open where the younger Canadian, Auger-Aliassime won 7-5, 7-5, 6-3. Auger-Aliassime’s other win also came in their only matchup on clay back in 2019, winning in straight sets.

Shapovalov vs Auger-Aliassime Head-to-Head Stats

14 ATP Standing 20
22 Age 20
7/6 YTD W/L 10/6
111/93 Career W/L 72/58
1 Career Titles 0
2 Head-to-Head Wins 2

It doesn’t get much more of a battle than this one. And we’re getting to see it in the third round.

Neither player has had an overwhelmingly amount of success of clay, but there’s been improvement in Shapovalov’s game on the surface, and last year he went 5-2 in his clay court matches. Auger-Aliassime only managed a 1-3 record. I posed the question earlier of whether or not this will be the tournament we see some results of the Auger-Aliassime and Toni Nadal partnership. It’s tough to say, I do think it’s possible, but it’s still early. I expect we’ll slowly start seeing more results as we get closer to the French Open.

Auger-Aliassime has had a slightly better year than Shapovalov so far. He started the year with a finals appearance, and has since added a quarterfinal appearance. But he’s had a couple of shaky matches on clay. Shapovalov has slowly been improving his play on this surface, and if he’s able to control his serve, including minimizing his double faults, there’s a good chance he gets a win here.

The Pick: Shapovalov (-103)

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Hayley Graham

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