Diego Schwartzman vs Pablo Carreno Busta Odds & Prediction

Schwartzman vs Busta

Diego Schwartzman, of Argentina, serves to Sebastian Korda during the Miami Open tennis tournament, Tuesday, March 30, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

  • Fourth-seeded Diego Schwartzman is the -124 favorite over #6 seed Pablo Carreno Busta in their ATP Barcelona Open men’s singles quarterfinal on Friday, April 23rd
  • They’ve split two previous meetings with both of those matches went three sets
  • Read our match preview and beast bet below

Argentina’s Diego Schwartzman and Spain’s Pablo Carreno Busta clash in what figures to be an evenly-matched men’s singles quarterfinal at the ATP Barcelona Open on Friday, April 23rd.

Schwartzman is #9 in the world rankings, just four spots above Carreno Busta. The Argentine is the #4 seed in this event, while Carreno Busta is seeded sixth.

They’ve met twice previously, splitting those matches. Both of them finished in three sets.

Schwartzman has been established as the -124 favorite to defeat Carreno Busta.

 Diego Schwartzman vs Pablo Carreno Busta Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total at DraftKings
Pablo Carreno-Busta +100 +1.5 (-125) O 18.5 (-345)
Diego Schwartzman -124 -1.5 (+100) U 18.5 (+255)

Odds as of April 22nd

Friday’s match is set for an 11:20 am ET start at Pista Rafa Nadal. The broadcast is being carried by Tennis TV.

Schwartzman Too Much for Moutet

It didn’t take much for Schwartzman to overcome France’s Corentin Moutet on Thursday in the round of 16. The Argentine won in straight sets 6-4, 6-2.

Schwartzman broke the serve of the unseeded Frenchman five times. Moutet was broken quickly in both sets by his more experienced opponent and also victimized himself with a series of unforced errors.

It was a vastly different outcome for Schwartzman than his round of 32 match against American Frances Tiafoe. Tiafoe was at match point up 6-3, 5-3, but couldn’t close out for the win. Schwartzman rallied for a 3-6, 7-5, 6-1 verdict.

Coming on the heels of his quick exit at Monte Carlo, Schwartzman managed to survive this scare. However, with his up and down performances so far this season, it’s difficult to gauge which Schwartzman is going to show up for a match.

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Carreno Busta Wins All-Spanish Showdown

There’s no home-court advantage for someone from Spain when they’re facing a fellow Spaniard at the Barcelona Open. That was the case in the round of 16 match between Carreno Busta and the unseeded qualifier Bernabe Zapata Miralles.

Carreno Busta swept Zapata Miralles in straight sets 6-3, 6-4. He’s yet to drop a set in Barcelona and has lost just 11 games. Carreno Busta beat Jordan Thompson 6-4, 6-0 in the round of 32.

Though not typically viewed as a clay-court specialist, Carreno Busta reached the quarterfinals of the French Open last year. He has also fared well thus far during the 2021 clay campaign.

The Spaniard already posted a tournament win on home soil in the ATP Andalucía Open. Carreno Busta followed up that performance by reaching the third round in Monte Carlo. Overall, he’s 8-1 on clay so far this year.

First Meeting On Clay

The two previous matches between Schwartzman and Carreno Busta were both contested on hard-court surfaces. Both matches also were played in 2017, so how much bearing they’ll have on this match is somewhat debatable.

At the round of 16 in Vienna, Schwartzman outlasted Carreno Busta 5-7, 6-1, 6-1. They also met in the quarterfinals at the US Open that year. Carreno Busta charged to victory. He downed Schwartzman 6-4, 6-4, 6-2.

Diego Schwartzman vs Pablo Carreno Busta Stats

9 ATP Ranking 13
4 ATP Titles 5
14 ATP Final Appearances 8
12-6 W-L (2021) 12-4
76 Service Games Won 83
37 Return Games Won 25
61 Break Points Saved 65
25 Aces 55

Carreno Busta is always a challenge for any opponent because he rarely beats himself. He’s not known as an overpowering player and yet he’s recorded 55 aces, compared to 25 for Schwartzman.  He tends to be a very consistent player from the back of the court.

Schwartzman’s indifferent form of late took a sudden turn for the better in his rally to defeat Tiafoe. That match started much like his quick departure from Monte Carlo, with Schwartzman looking to be lacking in confidence and quickly surrendering his serve.

Perhaps he’s turned a corner and will again rediscover his game. The Argentine certainly looked like a different player against Moutet.

However, in a contest as evenly-matched, as this one is, the advantage of playing at home should be enough for Carreno Busta to carry the day. He’s won each of his last six ATP matches played in Spain.

Pick: Pablo Carreno Busta (+100), Carreno Busta 2-1 (+375)

While you’re betting the Barcelona Open, be sure to read our guide to Derby betting ahead of next week’s big race!

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Robert Duff

Sports Writer