Dodgers (Kershaw) vs Braves (Wilson) Game 4 Picks and Odds


Max Muncy watching a home run leave the park

Max Muncy went 2-for-4 with a grand slam in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Atlanta Braves. Image from @StatsCentre (Twitter).

  • The Dodgers scored a record-setting 11 runs in the first inning of Game 3 of the NLCS
  • Bryse Wilson gets the start for Atlanta while Clayton Kershaw will go for LA
  • First pitch for Game 4 is at 8:08 pm ET from Globe Life Field in Texas on Thursday, Oct. 15th

Kyle Wright never stood a chance.

After leadoff hitter Mookie Betts was awarded an infield single after review, it went downhill from there. Wright gave up seven runs over 0.2 innings, and LA scored 11 runs before the first inning was over. The win cut the Braves’ lead in the NLCS to 2-1.

Now the Dodgers may be in the perfect position to tie the series up.  Bryse Wilson is up for the Braves in Game 4, and he’ll have to go against Clayton Kershaw.

First pitch for Game 4 is at 8:08 pm ET on Thursday, October 15th, from Globe Life Field.

Dodgers vs Braves Odds – Game 4

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Los Angeles Dodgers (C. Kershaw) -220 -1.5 (-134) Over 9 (-120)
Atlanta Braves (B. Wilson) +185 +1.5 (+112) Under 9 (-103)

Odds as of Oct 15th from DraftKings

According to the Dodgers vs Braves odds, LA is a heavier favorite in Game 4 than Kershaw’s previously schedule outing of Game 2. And after a historic opening inning to Game 3, the total has actually been knocked back down to nine.

With the books leaning towards the over again, it likely has a lot to do with Kershaw’s opposition.

Déjà Vu for Bryse Wilson?

The Dodgers wasted no time dismantling Kyle Wright in Game 3, which exposed the lack of depth behind Max Fried and Ian Anderson. Now the Braves must turn to an equally inexperienced starter.

Bryse Wilson has seven starts and 15 games under his belt at the big-league level. In six games and two starts in 2020, he was 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.723 WHIP.

The 22-year old has a career H/9 rate of 11.0 and his BB/9 is 5.3.

Through three games, the Dodgers have shown two vastly different strategies at the plate. In Games 1 and 2, they maxed out pitch counts. In Game 3, they scored five runs on 28 pitches.

That’s bad news for Wilson.

This could be another instance of knowing what direction the game will take early on. Opponents are hitting .366 over Wilson’s first 25 pitches per game, with 10 doubles and five home runs in his career.

Dodgers Key Hitters – Game 3

Player H/AB HR RBI Runs K LOB
Mookie Betts 1/3 0 0 2 0 0
Corey Seager 3/4 1 3 3 0 0
Max Muncy 2/3 1 4 2 0 1
Cody Bellinger 2/4 1 2 2 2 1
Justin Turner 1/3 0 0 2 0 1

Ahead of Game 3, these were the five key bats in the Dodgers lineup that were struggling before Corey Seager’s seventh-inning home run.

Even including their signs of life in that game, they combined for two home runs and six RBI through two games. They left 11 on base and struck out 14 times.

As you can see, Game 3 changed a lot for those five. Even with three of them not going wire-to-wire.

2020 World Series Odds Tracker

Kershaw, May Give LA Advantage in Game 4

Since it was announced the Dodgers would be skipping Kershaw’s Game 2 start, many have wondered if we’ll even see him in the series.

We now know that we will.

As he would have in Game 2 against Ian Anderson, Kershaw’s experience gives him the edge. People mock him for his postseason results and 4.23 ERA, yet he still wants to pitch in the big spots.

But this year Kershaw has won both of his starts, including an eight-inning shutout in LA’s Wild Card Series. The Padres plated three in six innings, but Kershaw was able to hold on for the win in the NLDS.

 

He’s also got a career 1.78 ERA against Atlanta, and has given up three runs, one earned, to the Braves in 21 playoff innings.

If Kershaw can’t go, the  LA likely turns to Dustin May. He doesn’t have the same resume, but is still a major upgrade over Wilson.

Despite some control issues, May struck out two without giving up a run in 1.2 innings in Game 1.

Dodgers Carrying Momentum

The lasting message from Joe Buck and John Smoltz on Wednesday night, was the tough spot the Braves are now in. They just don’t have the rotation depth.

Whether it’s Kershaw or May, it’s advantage Dodgers entering Game 4. Expect more offense on Thursday.

The Pick: Dodgers (-220), Over 9.0 (-120)

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Bryan Thiel

NFL MLB NHL Sports Writer

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