Donald Trump Conviction Odds Lengthen, as Trial Starts Next Week


Posted on: February 2, 2021, 10:49h.ย 

Last updated on: February 2, 2021, 11:02h.

The impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump begins next week. Bettors wagering money on the outcome say thereโ€™s little chance of conviction.

Donald Trump odds conviction impeachment
Former President Donald Trump will go on trial in the US Senate next week on one House charge of โ€œincitement of insurrection.โ€ Seen here is the rally Trump held on January 6 just hours before rioters stormed the Capitol. (Image: AP)

Briefs have been filed from both sides of the legal drama. House Democrats said today that Trump triggered his supporters on January 6 โ€œlike a loaded cannon.โ€ They contend that the 45th president endangered the lives of the entire Congress when the US Capitol was stormed on that dark day in the nationโ€™s history.

His conduct endangered the life of every single Member of Congress, jeopardized the peaceful transition of power and line of succession, and compromised our national security,โ€ Democratic impeachment managers wrote in their 77-page โ€œbrief.โ€

โ€œThis is precisely the sort of constitutional offense that warrants disqualification from federal office,โ€ they added. A conviction in the Senate would prohibit Trump from ever holding federal office again.

Trump attorneys fired back today with their own brief, saying the ex-president did not incite the riot or associated violence. They say the trial is unconstitutional.

Conviction Odds Lengthen

Following the January 6 events and subsequent impeachment proceedings in the House, betters on the political betting exchange PredictIt thought there was a decent chance of Trump being the first president to be convicted in an impeachment trial.

โ€œWill the Senate convict Donald Trump in President Joe Bidenโ€™s first 100 days?โ€ saw โ€œyesโ€ shares trading at 44 cents on January 12.

As some Republicans have called for unity, and others saying itโ€™s time to move on from the chaos surrounding Trumpโ€™s exit, the odds of a Senate conviction have since lengthened. โ€œYesโ€ shares are now down to seven cents.

โ€œIt is denied that the 45th President of the United States ever engaged in a violation of his oath of office,โ€ the Trump legal team brief says. โ€œTo the contrary, at all times, Donald J. Trump fully and faithfully executed his duties as President of the United States, and at all times acted to the best of his ability to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States, while never engaging in any high Crimes or Misdemeanors.โ€

The Trump brief is being lambasted on social media for a glaring spelling error. In the header address, the brief writes, โ€œTo: The Honorable, the Members of the Unites States Senate.โ€

Vote Outcome Odds

PredictIt bettors are also placing wagers on how the Senate will vote.

How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by April 29?

  • 50 or fewer โ€” 6 cents
  • 51 or 52 โ€” 12 cents
  • 53 or 54 โ€” 31 cents
  • 55 or 56 โ€” 33 cents
  • 57 or 58 โ€” 11 cents
  • 59 or 60 โ€” 5 cents
  • 61 or 62 โ€” 3 cents
  • 63 or 64 โ€” 2 cents
  • 65 or 66 โ€” 1 cents
  • 67 or more โ€” 5 cents

For Trump to be convicted and barred from ever holding federal office again, 67 Senate votes are required.