22:20 – April 30, 2021
We’ve reached the halfway stage of the Tenerife Open and Germany’s Nicolai von Dellingshausen leads by three. Here’s the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 22:10.
Nicolai von Dellingshausen -16 4.3100/30
Pep Angles -13 8.88/1
Kalle Samooja -12 13.012/1
Scott Jamieson -12 17.016/1
Scott Hend -12 20.019/1
Eduard Rousaud -12 40.039/1
Dean Burmester -11 15.014/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -11 15.014/1
Sean Crocker -11 18.017/1
Yikeun Chang -11 80.079/1
-10 and 22.021/1 bar
Given this is another low-scoring birdie-fest, I’ve been concentrating hard on the leaders but I’ve been going round and round in circles.
When the scoring is good it’s very hard to make up ground on the leaders as someone up there will keep going low but this a leaderboard devoid of recent winning experience and I really don’t like the leaders chances.
With a three-stroke lead, von Dellingshausen is a fair price at first glance given three-stroke 36-hole leaders on the European Tour since 1996 have a 42% strike-rate but I’m far from convinced.
The 28-year-old German has won from the front on the Pro Golf Tour but he’s struggled on the Challenge and European Tours when in contention.
He sat second at the halfway stage of the Slovakia Challenge in 2019 but finished 10th and he led the Rolex Trophy after 36 holes later that year but shot 74 in round three to fall to 10th before rallying to finish seventh. And he’s twice been in contention on the European Tour previously without impressing.
He was tied for lead with a round to go at the Austrian Open last year but finished 15th! And he fell from eighth and four strokes back through 54 holes in that event last time out but finished 24th after a 74 in round four.
If von Dellingshausen struggles tomorrow, it’s going to blow the event wide open and it’s a tough one to call. There are plenty of players in-the-mix that are three, four and five strokes adrift but there are big question marks against them all.
Pep Angles, who sits alone on second, is the only one amongst the top-ten that I was tempted by but after much deliberation, I’ve decided to play the last two winners on the European Tour – John Catlin, who trails by five, and last week’s winner, Garrick Higgo, who’s six adrift.
With rounds of 69 and 70 in the trickier afternoon conditions today, both need to bounce back tomorrow but they clearly know how to get the job done and that can’t be said about many of the players above them.
10:40 – April 30, 2021
The second round of the Tenerife Open is well underway and having theorised in the preview that the players that figured last week in Gran Canaria were highly likely to contend again this week, it’s frustrating to see the halfway leader of the Gran Canaria Open, Thorbjorn Olesen, who eventually finished tied for fifth, leading after the first round.
Last week’s winner, Garrick Higgo, is also on the premises but the three players I backed before the off, that finished second, third and tied fifth, have all gone AWOL. Sod’s law strikes again.
I’ll be back with a detailed look of that event at halfway either this evening or first thing tomorrow and but for a small sanity saving wager on Patton Kizzire, and a tiny bet on Zach Johnson, I’m going to leave the Valspar Championship alone for now too.
Keegan Bradley leads on -7 and he’s two clear of a group of five that includes the aforementioned Kizzire, who I did consider carefully before the off.
As highlighted in the preview, winners of the Sony Open fare really well at Copperhead but the 2018 Sony champ, Kizzire, was so awful last time out, when I put him up in the Find Me a 100 Winner column at the RBC Heritage, that I left him out this week, despite him being available to back at between 250.0249/1 and 300.0299/1.
I’ve scrambled onboard Kizzire for a few pounds this morning, mainly for sanity reasons, as this isn’t a tournament that’s easy to predict at this stage.
If Bradley were to kick on and get the job done he’d be just the second first round leader to win or to reach a playoff since the inaugural edition of the event in 2000. Since the tournaments inception, 25 players have either won or contested a playoff and the 2002 winner, KJ Choi, is the only one of the 25 that led after round one.
The 2019 winner, Paul Casey, sat tied for 29th and four off the lead and that was quite close to the front compared to some. A number of players have been beaten in extra time having trailed by six, seven, and eight strokes after the opening round, the 2018 winner, Adam Hadwin, trailed by six after the opening day, Kevin Streelman won the 2013 edition having sat tied 70th and eight off the lead and the 2007 champ, Mark Calcavecchia sat tied for 112th and ten back after round one!
In addition to a small bet on Kizzire, I’ve also had a tiny wager on Zach Johnson, who I’ve always felt was made for this event. The two tournaments that correlate nicely are the Sony and the John Deere Classic and Zach’s won them both. He looks a fair price this morning at 95.094/1 given he sits tied for 14th on -3.
Tenerife Open Pre-Event Selections:
Max Kieffer @ 36.035/1
Connor Syme @ 60.059/1
Jeff Winther @ 70.069/1
Valspar Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Kevin Na @ 75.074/1
Patton Kizzire @ 48.047/1
Zach Johnson @ 95.094/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 1 ½ Alejandro Del Rey @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 3 pts Alejandro Del Rey @ 6/1 Top-20 Finish (Sportsbook)
Back 1 ½ Keith Mitchell @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back Peter Uihlein 1 u @ 190.0189/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter