Denver Broncos’ second-year QB Drew Lock has moved into the top 15 in the odds for NFL MVP. Photo from @MileHighHuddle (Twitter).
- Broncos’ second-year QB Drew Lock moves into the top-15 of NFL MVP odds
- In five starts last year, Lock went 4-1 as a starter
- Find out below if we think Lock is worthy of an MVP wager
Just a few days into training camp, and Denver Broncos’ second-year pivot Drew Lock is making a surge in the 2020 NFL MVP odds.
When the first odds came out in February, you would have needed a telescope to find him and his average odds of +10000. Now? He’s cracked the top-15 for the first time.
2020 NFL MVP Odds
*Odds taken August 19
That happens to also double as a list of the NFL’s best and budding stars. Lock has leapfrogged the likes of 2016 MVP Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons and 2018 first overall pick Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns (both at +3300).
Let’s explore the recent upward trend, and if the young pivot is worth considering for a longshot wager.
Camping Trip Success So Far
At this point, we know all the talking points for Lock’s potentially big year in Denver: the offensive help he was afforded, a potentially great working relationship with new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, and his small sample size of work at the end of last season, where he went 4-1 as a starter in regular season garbage time.
Courtland Sutton beats AJ Bouye deep and Drew Lock throws a dime pic.twitter.com/8sJEVhBrNz
— Main Team (@MainTeamSports) August 16, 2020
But the buzz seems to be coming from training camp, where, by all accounts, Lock has looked crisp, particularly connecting with fellow exciting young building block Courtland Sutton on several deep balls.
Camp stories are focussing on Lock’s personality finally surfacing, which was a difficult transition in Year 1 as he recovered from a thumb injury that cost him much of the season. He’s supremely confident and apparently carries an infectious swagger. And for a guy who averaged a paltry 6.5 yards per pass attempt last year, he’s ready to take the training wheels off and get his gunslinger on.
Drew Lock looks alot better in his mechanics this year
— Caden 🦦 (@IssaLoop) August 18, 2020
“I’m going to take the shots when they’re there, and put (the ball) in some windows if need be,” Lock told Kyle Newman of the Denver Post. “But I’m also understanding that taking care of the ball is the No. 1 thing for us.”
While he’s also touted for his arm strength, his mechanics in and out of the pocket are being praised and everything is looking great. New offseason acquisition Melvin Gordon talked about Lock’s desire to be great and his attention to detail.
Should You Grab Lock at This Price?
Sorry to dash your hopes, but the short answer here is no.
There are many factors working against him, perhaps the main one being Lock’s Broncos reside in the same division as the Chiefs. We are currently in the Patrick Mahomes era, and actually just lifted off. As long as Mahomes is healthy, expect him to own the AFC West (at the very least) and the NFL (gulp) for the next few years.
The conference also boasts reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson, who set the league on fire in a pass-run combination of quarterbacking we’ve never seen at the level of devastation. There’s also young star Deshaun Watson, who is on the same level as those two talent-wise, and is good enough to drag a less talented Houston team with him.
Lamar Jackson’s 10 BEST PLAYS from his MVP season! @lj_era8
📺: #NFLHonors | 8pm ET on FOX pic.twitter.com/6pA2O6jP5R
— NFL (@NFL) February 1, 2020
Lock is promising, but he wasn’t exactly dicing teams en route to his 4-1 record in five starts. He threw seven TD passes, three interceptions and posted a 89.7 QBR. Even with Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Phil Lindsay, Noah Fant, Gordon and KJ Hamler lined up all over the formation, it’s hard to project a mega year.
And going back to the start of this century, the MVP award is linked to the best player on the best team in the NFL. While it’s entirely possible the Broncos can improve from their 7-9 mark from a year ago, they also have the fifth most difficult schedule in the league this year.
The buzz around camp isn’t nothing — if Lock was a disaster coming out of the gates, you can bet the media would be ruthless in their assessment.
His personal development will be a big bonus, but the payout you’re hoping for won’t materialize in 2020 if you’re betting on Lock.
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV’s Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric’s work has appeared in local and national publications alike.