Dustin Johnson’s U.S. Open Odds Now +900 After The Northern Trust


Dustin Johnson’s 11-stroke victory at the Northern Trust marked the fifth time he’s won a FedEx Cup Playoffs event. Photo by @GolfChannel (Twitter).

  • Dustin Johnson now has the shortest U.S. Open odds following his win at the Northern Trust
  • The victory propelled Johnson to No. 1 in the world rankings
  • Read below for analysis on whether or not Johnson is a good bet to win the U.S. Open at his new price

Does anyone remember when Dustin Johnson shot back-to-back 80’s at Murifield Village, then withdrew from the 3M Open after carding a 79? Me either. Two weeks after finishing runner-up at the PGA Championship, DJ dismantled the field at the Northern Trust, winning the event by 11 strokes.

The victory certainly made a big impression on oddsmakers as Johnson is now the solo favorite to win the year’s second Major in four weeks at Winged Foot.

2020 U.S. Open Odds

Golfer Current Odds at FanDuel Odds on August 18th
Dustin Johnson +900 +1000
Brooks Koepka +1400 +1000
Bryson DeChambeau +1400 +1400
Jon Rahm +1400 +1300
Justin Thomas +1400 +1400
Rory McIlroy +1400 +1000
Collin Morikawa +1600 +1600
Xander Schauffele +2000 +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2000 +1800
Tiger Woods +2700 +2000

Odds taken Aug. 23rd.

Prior to teeing off at TPC Boston this week, his U.S. Open odds were +1000, the same as Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy. Koepka sat the Northern Trust out, while McIlroy continued his recent poor play finishing T65. Johnson’s new price is slightly shorter, while the other two saw their odds lengthened to +1400.

2020 Masters Odds Tracker

A Dominant Win By DJ

From Friday afternoon on, Johnson’s lead was never in doubt. He carded rounds of 67, 60, 64 and 63 becoming just the third player to finish a PGA tournament at -30. The victory was his record-tying fifth at a FedExCup Playoffs event and he has now overtaken Justin Thomas for the FedExCup standings lead.

He also reclaimed the top spot in the World Golf Rankings, a position he’s held for 95 weeks in the past. His game has never looked better, as he lapped the field not only on the scorecard but in most statistical categories as well.

Dustin Johnson’s Northern Trust Strokes Gained Stats

SG: T2G SG: BS SG: APP SG: OTT SG: ARG SG: P
1st 1st 1st 2nd 13th 9th

DJ led all players in strokes gained tee-to-green, ball striking and approach, and finished second in strokes gained off-the-tee. He hit 90.28% of the greens in regulation, 67.68% of the fairways, and averaged 320 yards off the tee. That type of ball striking wins Major Championships, and will be a prerequisite to compete at this year’s U.S. Open.

Winged Foot Will Be a Daunting Test

Johnson has never played a professional event at Winged Foot, but if the course is set up as difficult as it has been in the past, it promises to be incredibly challenging. The last two U.S. Open’s that were contested there (in 1974 and 2006) produced winning scores of +7 and +5, two of the highest in Major Championship history in the Modern Era.

After a recent practice round at Winged Foot, Justin Thomas described the course as “probably the most U.S. Open venue that I’ve seen”. It’s incredibly long at roughly 7,300 yards for a Par-70, and features narrow fairways, long rough and severe greens.

Fortunately, DJ hasn’t had any issues navigating challenging U.S. Open set-ups in the past, winning the coveted Major in 2016, while also posting finishes of second, third and fourth since 2014.

He’s gained 31 strokes tee-to-green in his last three events (no that’s not a typo) and 11.8 strokes putting. He’s peaking at just the right time, but the question becomes can you stomach those short odds?

Pass on DJ, Play Berger

Johnson’s implied probability to win the U.S. Open at +900 is 10%, meaning he would need to win twice for every 10 times the event was played in order for the bet to be profitable. Considering he’s won just one Major in 43 career starts, that seems like a losing bet long term. That’s not to say you shouldn’t bet on him, I would just prefer to chase someone with more favorable odds given how unpredictable golf can be.

For me that player is Daniel Berger. The 27-year-old finished third at TPC Boston this week, marking the fourth time in six tournaments since the restart he’s finished third or better. He’s gaining strokes in every single key category, and hasn’t lost off-the-tee or on approach since Phoenix back in February, where he still finished ninth.

Over his last 50 rounds, Berger ranks 10th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 17th in ball striking, sixth in short game and 12th in putting. In his 22 rounds since play resumed in June, he’s shot 66 or better seven times and has a scoring average of 67.

He’s been the most consistent performer since the restart, and his +3300 odds certainly don’t reflect that. Grab the value now, because if he racks up yet another top finish at the BMW Championship, that price is going to be sliced in half.

Pick: Daniel Berger (+3300)

 

 

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Chris Amberley

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