Başakşehir to complete the job in Denmark
FC Copenhagen (0) vs (1) Istanbul Başakşehir
Başakşehir bring a 1-0 lead into the second leg of their Europa League tie with Kobenhavn after a solid first leg display in which they allowed very few chances (xG: BAS 1.3 – 0.2 KOB). Başakşehir head into this tie as Turkish champions and should be able to hold Copenhagen at bay here, given that their hosts have averaged just 0.8 xGF per game in the Europa League this season. Infogol makes the Turks favourites to win this (39%), contradictory to the market, but we aren’t expecting fireworks (63% U2.5, 44% BTTS) – 0-1.
Back the 0-1 @ [9.2]
Wolfsburg to win on the night
Shakhtar Donetsk (2) vs (1) Wolfsburg
Shakhtar bring a 2-1 lead to the second leg after a good display in Germany (xG: WOL 1.49 – 1.73 SHA), with the Infogol model calculating that they have a 65% chance of advancing ahead of this game. Wolfsburg have it all to do here, but they have impressed overall this season, both domestically and in Europe. They have shone away from home in the Bundesliga, ranking as the third best away team according to xPoints, and away from home in the Europa League they have been impressive too (1.8 xGF, 1.0 xGA pg). They are fancied to win the second leg (49% WOL), with goals likely given the state of play (58% O2.5, 59% BTTS) – 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ [12.0]
Getafe to take Inter to extra time
Inter Milan vs Getafe
This game will be being played at a neutral venue in Gelsenkirchen, as a one-off clash given these sides couldn’t play a first leg prior to the suspension of football. Inter were disappointed to drop into this competition from the Champions League, but made light work of Ludogorets in the last round, winning 4-1 on aggregate. They are rightly one of the tournament favourites, as Alex Keble discussed this week.
Getafe knocked out last season’s Champions League semi-finalists Ajax in the last round, with the Spanish side showing just what they are capable of, with their dogged defensive approach lending itself well to this competition so far. They appear to be being discounted in this tie given their poor finish to the La Liga season, but one thing is for sure, Jose Bordalas‘ side won’t make life easy for Inter. They have allowed an average of 0.8 xGA per game in their eight Europa League games. Getafe can take this to extra time (55% GET or Draw), with both teams fancied to notch (58% BTTS) – 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ [8.4]
United to rotate but still win
Manchester United (5) vs (0) LASK Linz
Manchester United have this tie wrapped up after a 5-0 win in Austria, a dominant display in which they created chances at will (xG: LAS 0.5 – 3.1 MUN). United finished the domestic season in fine form and will look to continue that in this competition, with the hope being that they can get their hands on some silverware.
LASK have a mountain to climb here, and while they aren’t expected to win, they can trouble United in an entertaining game. They weren’t at their best in the first leg and let’s not forget that they finished top of a group including Sporting Lisbon and PSV, before knocking out AZ Alkmaar, who finished the Eredivise season joint top, in the Last 32. LASK have averaged 1.9 xGF per game in the Europa League, and can get on the scoresheet against a much-changed United (52% BTTS, 52% O2.5), though the hosts should still win (53% MUN) – 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ [10.5]
Leverkusen to get rust off with win
Bayer Leverkusen (3) vs (1) Rangers
Bayer Leverkusen are in control of this tie after a 3-1 win in Scotland, though it was more through clinical finishing than domination that the Germans hold a two-goal cushion (xG: RAN 1.0 – 1.5 B04). They are an exciting attacking side, but are far from stable in defence, though they will be looking to use this game to get back up to speed after a lay-off.
Rangers have had a good Europa League campaign so far, having progressed past some of Europe’s bigger names, and they are more than capable of getting a result in this second leg. Their process in the Europa League (1.4 xGF, 1.4 xGA pg) shows that chances at both ends is likely, which could lead to an open game, and that would fall into the hands of the dynamic hosts. Bayer are fancied to win (49%) in an entertaining game – 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ [9.6]
High-quality draw between two good sides
Sevilla vs Roma
A thrilling encounter is in store in Hamburg between two of the best teams still in the Europa League, in a one-off clash. Sevilla finished the La Liga campaign unbeaten in 15 games, with defence their strong suit under Julen Lopetegui. In the Europa League, they struggled in the last round to beat Cluj, but overall have been good in the competition. Roma are a free-scoring unit who have averaged 2.0 xGF per game in Serie A this season, and finished the campaign with a flourish, winning seven of their last eight. They are far from solid, but we could see these teams cancel each other out, with the model making Sevilla 40% favourites to win with a 34% chance of a Roma win, so I see this being a tight one, and it could end in a score draw (57% BTTS) 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ [6.8]
Frankfurt to win second leg but go out
FC Basel (3) vs (0) Frankfurt
Basel caused an upset in the first leg, as they went to Germany and hammered Frankfurt 3-0 (xG: FRA 0.8 – 1.7 BAS), meaning they have a 93% chance of progressing. They are a vulnerable side at home though, allowing 1.6 xGA per game in the Europa League this season despite conceding only 0.25 goals per game. Frankfurt have to throw the kitchen sink here, and they are more than capable of scoring plenty of goals having averaged 1.8 xGF per game across the Europa League and the Bundesliga. The visitors are fancied to win in Switzerland (45%), with goals likely yet again between this sides (59% O2.5, 60% BTTS) – 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ [10.5]
Wolves to edge into QF
Wolves (1) vs (1) Olympiakos
Wolves have a slender advantage heading into the second leg, after a 1-1 draw in Greece that was a fair result (xG: OLY 0.9 – 0.8 WOL). Nuno’s side have been impressive all season long both domestically and in Europe, and at home in the Europa League they have been a solid defensively team (0.5 xGA per game). Olympiakos have had issues on their travels in this competition (2.2 xGA per game), but are a capable attacking side (1.5 xGF per game) as they showcased at the Emirates when knocking out Arsenal, so we could see an entertaining game. Wolves are taken to win (51%), in what could prove to be an entertaining game (51% O2.5, 53% BTTS) – 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ [9.6]
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