Federico Delbonis vs Pablo Carreño Busta Odds & Prediction


Pablo Carreno Busta, ATP

Spain’s Pablo Carreno Busta plays a return to Sam Querrey of the US during the men’s singles first round match on day three of the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in London, Wednesday June 30, 2021. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)

  • Only two seeded players remain in Hamburg, and Pablo Carreño Busta is the highest at No. 2
  • Federico Delbonis has a surprising 5-2 head-to-head against the higher-ranked Spaniard
  • The Argentine remains the underdog, though; we look at how he’ll get the job done

With a great opportunity to win a 500-level ATP Tour title, Spain’s Pablo Carreño Busta probably wasn’t pleased to run into a lower-ranked player who has often had his number over their careers.

Federico Delbonis  vs Pablo Carreño Busta Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Federico Delbonis (ARG) +2.5 (-105) +160 O 22.5 (-115)
[2] Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) -2.5 (-115) -195 U 22.5 (-105)

Odds as of July 16 at DraftKings

Six of the seven meetings between Carreño Busta and Delbonis have come on clay – one as recently as a couple of months ago.

So there are plenty of priors on which to gauge how their semifinal at the Hamburg European Open Saturday (not before 9:30 am EDT) might play out.

Marathon Win for Delbonis over Benoit Paire

For long periods of time on Friday, it appeared mercurial Frenchman Benoit Paire might be Carreño Busta’s opponent.

Playing before a crowd – the absence of which he has bemoaned through the pandemic – Paire won the first set against Delbonis.

Then he had four match points in the second set during a lengthy tiebreak. He didn’t do much wrong; Delbonis did a lot right.

Paire even came back from being a break down in the third set at 1-3. But the steady Delbonis stayed the course and eventually prevailed 4-6, 7-6 (9) 6-4 in  a fairly speedy two hours, 19 minutes.

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Carreño Busta Solid vs Lajovic

Earlier in the day, Carreño Busta posted a solid 7-6 (4), 6-3 win over Dusan Lajovic, the No. 5 seed.

It was Carreño Busta’s third consecutive victory over the Serb. But, notably, it was his first win against him on clay in the main draw of an ATP Tour-level event.

If his winning percentage on second serve (36 per cent) was low, Carreño Busta more than made up for it by getting 79 per cent of his first serves in.

Lajovic broke him twice. But Carreño Busta broke back three times in 10 opportunities.

It was fairly routine, and it took just an hour and 35 minutes. Lajovic got a little testy, while Carreño Busta was more expressive than is standard for him.

Federico Delbonis vs Pablo Carreño Busta Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Masters Madrid (R64) Outdoor Clay 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 Delbonis
2018 French Open (R64) Outdoor Clay 7-6 (0), 7-6 (2), 3-6, 6-4 Carreño Busta
2017 Masters Miami (R64) Outdoor Hard 1-6, 7-5, 6-2 Delbonis
2016 French Open (R128) Outdoor Clay 7-6 (3), 6-7 (4), 6-4, 6-4 Carreño Busta
2016 Marrakech (QF) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 6-2 Delbonis
2015 Kitzbuhel (R32) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 6-4 Delbonis
2015 Buenos Aires (R32) Outdoor Clay 7-6 (2), 3-0 retd Delbonis

Carreño Busta’s Wins Came on Endurance

It’s unusual for a much lower-ranked player to have this kind of head-to-head against an opponent who has spent time in the top 10.

But even before his renaissance this season, Delbonis has – we’re exaggerating only slightly – owned Carreño Busta.

He’s 5-2 against him, including one comeback victory on hard court in Miami.

Notably, the only two wins Carreño Busta have posted were at the French Open, where the format is best-of-five sets.

Delbonis hasn’t always been the fittest guy – although he looks great at the moment. And the extended format was surely a factor in the Spaniard being able to win both matches in four sets.

Still, there were two tiebreaks in each match – three of them won by Carreño Busta. So the margins were thin.

 

Federico Delbonis vs Pablo Carreño Busta Head-to-Head

30 (Oct. 5, 1990) Age 29 (July 12, 1991)
Azul, Argentina Birthplace Barcelona, Spain
6-4 Height 6-2
2 Career ATP Singles Titles 5
No. 33 (May 9, 2016) Career High Ranking No. 10 (Sept. 11, 2017)
 No. 48 Current Ranking  No. 13
$4,918,761 Career Prize Money $11,696,093
22-13 2021 Won/Loss record 21-9
5 Career Head to Head 2

First Set Often Went to Carreño Busta

Carreño Busta has won the first set in their last four meetings. And in two of them, both best-of-three, Delbonis has come back to win.

Working against the Argentine is the number of consecutive times he has been stopped in semifinals (nine). Working in his favor is a 6-4 record as the underdog in his last 10 opportunities.

Carreño Busta at -175 to win the first set of this one.

The odds for Carreño Busta to win the first but for Delbonis to take the match are at +800.

A three-setter – either way – is at +120.

Best Bet: Delbonis in three sets (+380)


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Stephanie Myles

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