Ugo Humbert of France, right, greets Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime at the net after winning their Men’s singles match during day five of the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in London, Friday, July 5, 2019. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
- Félix Auger-Aliassime and Ugo Humbert meet Saturday at 8:30 am EDT for a spot in the Halle final
- They are 1-1 against each other and, unusually, both previous meetings came on grass
- Auger-Aliassime is the slight favorite; we analyze the matchup and make a prediction
Félix Auger-Aliassime is looking at reaching his second grass-court final in two weeks – and his ninth overall.
Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Ugo Humbert Odds
|Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN)||-1.5 (-143)||-190||O 23.5 (-109)|
|Ugo Humbert (FRA)||+1.5 (+114)||+150||U 23.5 (-115)|
Odds as of June 18 at DraftKings
Unseeded, the 20-year-old Canadian maximized a draw that originally went through top seed Daniil Medvedev (out in the first round) and Roger Federer.
But it was the 2021 version of Roger Federer, nearing 40 and struggling to return from double knee surgery.
The Canadian got through in three sets, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 and followed it up with a 6-3, 6-2 win over qualifier Marcos Giron .
That victory took less than an hour and featured yet another dominant grass-court serving performance.
Humbert’s Tough Road to the Quarters
Humbert, a 22-year-old French lefty, has had a far tougher road to the final four.
He survived big-serving Sam Querrey in a third-set tiebreak in the first round, then upset No. 3 seed and home-country favorite Alexander Zverev in three sets.
Humbert-lievable 🤯@HumbertUgo defeats 3rd seed Zverev 7-6 3-6 6-3 to progress to the quarter-finals in Halle#NoventiOpen pic.twitter.com/EJP0RlIjJS
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) June 17, 2021
To back that up, Humbert edged out another rising young player, American Sebastian Korda – also in three sets.
He’s played a lot of tennis this week.
Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Ugo Humbert Match History (1-1)
|2021||Stuttgart (QF)||Grass||7-6 (5). 7-6 (8)||Auger-Aliassime|
|2019||Wimbledon (R32)||Grass||6-4, 7-5, 6-3||Humbert|
Momentous Meeting at Wimbledon
It was nearly two years ago that 18-year-old Auger-Aliassime and Humbert, who had just turned 21, met in in the third round at Wimbledon.
It was a huge opportunity for both.
Auger-Aliassime was ranked No. 21 – exactly where he is now. Humbert, who developed a little later, was at No. 66. A victory in that match meant a trip to the second week of Wimbledon, to play on the iconic “Manic Monday” against world No. 1 Novak Djokovic.
The Canadian, younger by two years, was strongly favored. And he admits now he might have gotten a little ahead of himself, because he played a mediocre match in going down to Humbert in straight sets.
In addition to nine double faults, Auger-Aliassime managed to win just a third of the points on his own second serve.
Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Ugo Humbert Head-to-Head
|20 (Aug. 8, 2000)||Age||22 (June 26, 1998)|
|Montreal, Canada||Birthplace||Metz, France|
|0||Career ATP Singles Titles||2|
|No. 17 (Oct. 14, 2019)||Career High Ranking||No. 29 (March 15, 2021)|
|No. 21||Current Ranking||No. 31|
|$3,721,486||Career Prize Money||$2,148,616|
|20-12||2021 Won/Loss record||12-13|
|1||Career Head to Head||1|
Revenge in Stuttgart for Auger-Aliassime
It took nearly two years before the two met again.
Last week in the Stuttgart quarterfinals, they met – again, on grass.
Auger-Aliassime is ranked exactly what he was then, but a much more experienced player. Humbert, who has two career ATP Tour titles as the Canadian is still awaiting his first, is now right around the top 30.
The Canadian prevailed in that match, out-acing Humbert 17-4 and winning 56 per cent of points on Humbert’s second serve. But he won just seven of 55 points on Humbert’s first delivery, despite the paucity of aces for Humbert (four).
And he won just four more points overall (86-82) in a 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (10-8) squeaker that took two hours, and in which neither could break the other’s serve in three opportunities.
UEFA Euro 2020 Odds Tracker
The Canadian had three match points he couldn’t convert in that second set tiebreak before closing it out. But he also saved two set-point opportunities that, if converted by Humbert, would have taken it the distance.
Keys to the Match
Auger-Aliassime has a very good career record against lefthanders. Beyond being 0-1 against Rafael Nadal, he’s 16-9.
He’s also 12-3 against southpaws in tiebreaks, far higher than his overall average, (7-6 as the first-set score in favor of the Canadian is at +390).
They’re at -141 to play at least one tiebreak in the match.
Auger-Aliassime also is 8-4 in his career in semifinal matches. But he’ll need – unlike at Wimbledon – not to get ahead of himself and think about what could be his ninth career ATP Tour final (he’s 0-8 so far).
Humbert is 2-5 in semifinals but after the two he did win, we went on to win the title.
Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime in three sets (+285)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.