Filip Krajinovic vs Pablo Carreño Busta Odds & Prediction

Pablo Carreno Busta victory celebration

Spain’s Pablo Carreno Busta celebrates defeating United States’s Steve Johnson in their third round match on day 6, of the French Open tennis tournament at Roland Garros in Paris, France, Friday, June 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

  • No. 2 seed Pablo Carreño Busta and No. 6 Filip Krajinovic will meet in the Hamburg final Sunday
  • Both won their semifinal matches in straight sets on Saturday
  • Carreño Busta is the favorite. But again, as with Delbonis in the semis, he meets a troublesome foe

It has been 4 1/2 years since Pablo Carreño Busta made the finals of a tournament at the ATP 500 level.

Filip Krajinovic  vs Pablo Carreño Busta Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[6] Filip Krajinovic (SRB) +1.5 (-115) +110 O 23.5 (+100)
[2] Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) -1.5 (-105) -135 U 23.5 (-120)

Odds as of July 17 at DraftKings.

In fact, the tournament in Rio de Janeiro in Feb. 2017 was the only time – until this week – that the 29-year-old Spaniard had made a final, or won a tournament, above the ATP 250 level.

For Filip Krajinovic, who will be in quest of his first career ATP Tour title, it is the biggest tournament final he has contested since a surprise run to the final at the 2017 Paris Masters 1000. And it is his fourth final overall.

Carreño Busta Turns Tide Against Delbonis

Carreño Busta went into his semifinal Saturday against Federico Delbonis looking to turn the tide against a lower-ranked opponent who has consistently given him fits throughout his career.

And that’s exactly what he did.

He took advantage of his superior experience – as well as the fact that Delbonis has a bit of a negative streak going.

The Argentine had reached eight previous semifinals at the ATP level, but had lost them all.

Make that nine.

Carreño Busta won it 7-6, (2), 6-3.

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Krajinovic Bests Countryman Djere

With Krajinovic coming into Hamburg with a sub-.500 record, it hasn’t been a great year.

But he was facing a countryman he’d beaten the previous four times, two of those on clay.

And Krajinovic had only lost one set against Laslo Djere in those four victories.

So the all-Serb semi went pretty much according to form.

Krajinovic won two-thirds of points on his second serve. And he allowed just two break-point opportunities in total (one converted by Djere).

He broke Djere four times, even if he felt as though he wasn’t the one dictating.

Filip Krajinovic vs Pablo Carreño Busta Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2019 Stockholm (SF) Indoor Hard 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 Krajinovic
2015 Braunschweig Challenger (QF) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 Krajinovic
2013 Poznan Challenger (R32) Outdoor Clay 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 Carreño Busta

“No Confidence Before This Week” – Krajinovic

That pedestrian 2021 record has not gone unnoticed by Krajinovic, who said it somehow helped him come into the week with no pressure.

Probably because he had so few expectations.

Filip Krajinovic vs Pablo Carreño Busta Head-to-Head

29 (Feb. 27, 1992) Age 30 (July 12, 1991)
Sombor, Serbia Birthplace Barcelona, Spain
6-1 Height 6-2
0 Career ATP Singles Titles 5
No. 26 (April 23, 2018) Career High Ranking No. 10 (Sept. 11, 2017)
 No. 44 Current Ranking  No. 13
$4,321,821 Career Prize Money $11,696,093
12-10 2021 Won/Loss record 22-9

Krajinovic With Winning Record vs Carreño Busta

The Serb, ranked more than 30 spots lower, should come into Sunday’s final (scheduled for 7:30 am ET) with more confidence, as he has a good record against Carreño Busta.

That he defeated him on the faster indoor hard court in Stockholm isn’t a huge surprise, as that’s his preferred surface. But he also beat him outdoors on clay four years ago. And in their other clay meeting, he took Carreño Busta to three sets.

It’s a tough call on the winner. Because both will be coming in confident.

Krajinovic has won four matches in a row for the first time since that Stockholm tournament in Oct. 2019, where he last faced Carreño Busta. He also upset French Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas on the way to this week’s final.

Carreño Bust beat a nemesis in the semis, and hasn’t dropped a set this week. He has had good runs on clay in 2021 (including a title in Marbella) and has experience actually closing out finals that Krajinovic doesn’t have.

The spaniard is the favorite, but not a heavy favorite. However, he’s 13-2 this year when he IS the favorite.

Best Bet: Carreño Busta in three sets (+285)

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Stephanie Myles

Sports Writer