Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson (1) looks to pass during a first-round game against Texas Southern in the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament, Saturday, March 20, 2021, at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind. Michigan won 82-66. (AP Photo/Robert Franklin)
- #4 Florida State battles #1 Michigan on Sunday, March 28th at 5 pm ET in the third round of the NCAA tournament
- The Wolverines survived a scare in the second round, while the Seminoles have had mostly smooth sailing to this point
- Which player and team props represent the best betting value? See the top available offerings below
March Madness is always prime territory for upsets, but it’s still a bit odd that #1 Michigan versus #4 Florida State (5 pm ET tip-off on Sunday) is the only chalk matchup in the Sweet 16.
Maybe you like the Wolverines as the narrow favorites, or perhaps you see value in the Seminoles based on their impressive play to this point. Or maybe you’re looking for something a little different.
If you’ve chosen door number three, congratulations! We’ve got some prop bets pertaining to this game that we’d love to discuss.
Florida State vs Michigan Player Props
|Mike Smith (FSU)||11.5 (O -104 | U -120)||5.5 (O +114 | U -142)||2.5 (O +106 | U -132)||1.5 (O +172 | U -220)|
|Anthony Polite (FSU)||9.5 (O -142 | U +114)||1.5 (O -104 | U -122)||4.5 (O -116 | U -108)||1.5 (O +134| U -168)|
|Hunter Dickinson (Michigan)||13.5 (O -114 | U -110)||Off||5.5 (O -112 | U -112)||Off|
|Eli Brooks (Michigan)||11.5 (O -132 | U +106)||3.5 (O +134| U -172)||3.5 (O -102| U -122)||1.5 (O -106 | U -118)|
All Odds as of March 26th at FanDuel .
A Freshman Flop From Dickinson
Let’s appreciate Hunter Dickinson’s exceptional freshman year with Michigan for a moment. The 7-foot-1 big man entered a very experienced group and has emerged as the leading scorer (14.2 points per game) and rebounder (7.5 rebounds per game). He is, quite literally, a huge part of their success this season.
But we think Florida State can put the clamps on Dickinson and prevent him from busting out for a big game this weekend.
The Seminoles have a very strong defense as it is (21st in NCAA Division I in effective field goal percentage allowed), but they’re particularly adept at stopping the inside game. Florida State allows just 43.9% shooting on two-point attempts, which is 10th in D-I.
In the first two rounds of the #NCAATournament, Hunter Dickinson ‘20 is averaging 14 points and 6.5 rebounds per game for the top ranked Michigan Wolverines.
Hunter and Michigan will take on Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen on Sunday at 5pm EST on CBS. pic.twitter.com/nLn2ONogay
— DeMathaHighSchool (@DeMathaCatholic) March 23, 2021
That’s really the only area Dickinson shoots from. He only has four attempts all season — and none since Feb. 18 — does now seem like the time to experiment from deep? No.
Dickinson’s scoring numbers have been up-and-down lately, and he has failed to clear that 13.5-point threshold in 11 of his past 16 games (68.8%). We like that to continue.
Pick: Hunter Dickinson Under 13.5 points (-110)
Polite, Can You Please Shoot More Threes?
Neither Michigan nor Florida State incorporate a high volume of three-pointers into their normal offensive systems but both teams are quite efficient when they do let the deep shots fly (both teams rank inside D-I’s top 20 in three-point percentage).
For the Seminoles, Anthony Polite is as good as it gets in that regard. He’s shooting 44% from deep this season — he just doesn’t always shoot from beyond the arc.
𝙊𝙪𝙧 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙮: Anthony Polite
Was it destiny or coincidence that Anthony ended up playing basketball at Florida State? Read his story to find out! ⬇️
📲 https://t.co/U6kFkZJuPt#OurStory | #OneTribe pic.twitter.com/Q5RK1C8CoD
— FSU Seminoles (@Seminoles) May 19, 2020
Last game, we saw Polite bury 4-of-7 three-pointers in a win against Colorado. Great, right? Well, he combined to go just 4-of-15 in his previous five games. That’s not what we’re looking for.
Hopefully Polite will build off of last game’s deep-shooting success — especially if Florida State finds itself trailing and needs to score in bunches.
Pick: Anthony Polite Over 1.5 three-pointers (+134)
Florida State vs Michigan Team Props
|Team||First Half Money Line||First Half Point Spread||Total Points|
|Florida State||+116||+1.5 (-116)||70.5 (O -110| U -110)|
|Michigan||-136||-1.5 (-106)||73 (O -110 | U -110)|
It’s All About Who You Like
First half spreads and money lines are fun because you can hedge or double down depending on how you’re feeling about the teams involved. We’re looking at this one-point spread for Michigan at half and really liking what we’re seeing.
The Wolverines have led at half in five of their past six games. If you’re bullish on them like we are, the value for this first half point spread is a really interesting play.
Pick: Michigan first half -1.5 (-106)
Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.