France, Germany & Portugal Battle in Group of Death


France head coach Didier Deschamps greeting N'Golo Kante after a soccer match.

France head coach Didier Deschamps greets France’s N’Golo Kante after the UEFA Nations League soccer match between Portugal and France at the Luz stadium in Lisbon, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020. France won the match 1-0. (AP Photo/Armando Franca)

  • France, Germany and Portugal battle in Group F at Euro 2020
  • With three of the pre-tournament favorites drawn together, this is the summer’s Group of Death
  • Read below for Group F odds, preview and picks

Every major tournament has a Group of Death. This summer, it’s Group F at Euro 2020. The reigning world and European champions are drawn together along with a deep, talented Germany team. Hungary drew the shortest of short straws to end up with France, Portugal and Germany. The Hungarians are out at +400 to qualify from the group stage.

The Euro 2020 odds tab France and Germany as favorites to progress, with both priced at -835 to qualify. The best performing third place teams will also reach the knockout rounds, resulting in Portugal also being odds on to progress.

Euro 2020 Group F Odds

Team Odds To Win Odds To Qualify
France +148 -835
Germany +165 -835
Portugal +300 -455
Hungary +4000 +400

Odds as of June 6th from DraftKings

France Aim To Go Back-To-Back

As the reigning world champions, France are inevitably among the pre-tournament favorites. Their squad is comfortably the deepest in world football. The shock return of Karim Benzema to the national team setup has given Didier Deschamps even more attacking firepower alongside Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann, Kingsley Coman and others.

On top of their ability to outscore any opponent, France have a midfield capable of dominating any match. N’Golo Kante has shown he’s still the best big-match midfielder in the world. Adrien Rabiot and Corentin Tolisso are superb options to slot alongside Kante and Paul Pogba. The defense is every bit as impressive, led by the highly decorated Raphael Varane.

France are the best team on paper. They are away from home for all three matches, but they only have to travel once. Their +148 price to win the group represents superb value.

Portugal Defend Their Crown

It’s easy to reduce Portugal to the Cristiano Ronaldo factor, but this squad is far better than that. The reigning European champions have an ideal mix of an experienced core, who won the Euros just a few years ago, and young stars like Joao Felix, Ruben Dias and Ruben Neves.

Portugal’s form is generally good. Their only defeat since 2019 came in a tightly fought game with France in the Nations League. This team has had some blips, like a draw with Serbia in World Cup qualifying, but they remain a difficult opponent. They have eight clean sheets in their last 12 matches.

Given how they can keep games tight, Portugal are well-equipped for the tension of tournament football. They are a good bet at -165 to finish in the top two.

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Invaluable German Experience

Joachim Low handed surprise recalls to Mats Hummels and Thomas Muller. It’s been a turbulent couple of years for Germany, with just five wins in 12 matches since the start of 2020. A loss to North Macedonia in March and a thrashing at the hands of Spain in November has shown the vulnerabilities of this team.

As ever, though, Germany are a legitimate contender to win this. Low had exiled many of his veterans after World Cup disappointment, but he’s made some big decisions with his squad for this tournament, adding the experience of Hummels and Muller and calling up Kevin Volland.

This is too short a price for this Germany team. They have tournament knowhow aplenty, and Low has so many options all over the pitch. Even with home advantage, it’s a big ask for them to finish ahead of France and Portugal given how they have performed over the last year or so.

Hungary’s Strong Form

Hungary are unbeaten in 10 matches. It’s been a relatively easy run of fixtures, with no opponents as formidable as their Group F foes, but they bring confidence into these Euros.

Wins over Serbia and Turkey in the Nations League were followed by a 3-3 draw with Poland in World Cup qualification. This Hungarian squad isn’t loaded with recognized names, but they are a well-organized group, and they have the added benefit of home advantage for their matches against France and Portugal.

It would be one of the great Euros shocks if Hungary qualify from the group. They’re a potential banana skin for the big three, though.

Group F Prediction

This is obviously the most exciting group on paper. Group F is stacked with heavyweight clashes, and could see one of the giants of European football eliminated before the knockout rounds.

The odds lean towards France and Germany getting the automatic qualification spots, but there’s definitely value in backing the Portuguese. In form and playing in Budapest, Hungary could make things complicated. Each of the three star-studded teams have suffered upsets in recent months, which could tempt some bettors to wager on one of them to not qualify. Germany are a decent price at +450.

The sheer quality of France is hard to ignore – they’re the pick to win the group. While the odds suggest it’s France and Germany who are neck and neck, it’s Germany and Portugal who could be fighting for their second spot. Their matchup in Munich on June 19th should be a thriller.

Group F Prediction: 1st – France, 2nd – Portugal, 3rd – Germany, 4th – Hungary

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Sam Cox

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