French Open Round of 16 Odds & Picks


Novak Djokovic celebrating on the court after winning a match at the 2021 French Open.

Serbia’s Novak Djokovic celebrates after defeating Uruguay’s Pablo Cuevas during their second round match on day 5, of the French Open tennis tournament at Roland Garros in Paris, France, Thursday, June 3, 2021. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)

  • Of the 16 seeds that, on paper, should have made the fourth round, only nine actually made it
  • Italian teenagers Musetti and Sinner are given basically no shot at beating Nadal and Djokovic
  • It doesn’t appear there are many likely upsets. We look at other values in the Round of 16

With the depletion of the seeds on the men’s side, there are only a couple of matches that are expected to be close as the French Open heads into the second week.

French Open Men’s Round of 16 Odds

Matchup Odds
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) -2500 / +1200
[2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) vs. [22] Cristian Garin (CHI) -240 / +185
[3] Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs. [18] Jannik Sinner (ITA) -1115 / +700
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) vs. [12] Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) -625 / +450
[6] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs. Kei Nishikori (JPN) -715 / +500
[10] Diego Schwartzman (ARG) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) -220 / +175
Federico Delbonis (ARG) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP) -143 / +117
[8] Roger Federer (SUI) vs.  [9] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) TBD

Odds as of June 5 at DraftKings

But the “three old men” have all made it, including top favorites Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, and No. 8 seed Roger Federer.

The 2009 champion looked spent but got through, during his late-night match Saturday against German lefty Dominic Koepfer.

Matteo Berrettini, Federer’s next opponent, will be a different proposition.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Cristian Garin Prediction

Has Daniil Medvedev turned the corner in his quest for clay-court competency?

We’ll know more after his match with Cristian Garin, who is a premium competitor on the dirt.

Medvedev has beaten the tricky Alexander Bublik, the solid Tommy Paul, and the huge-serving Reilly Opelka to get to the Round of 16.  And he has only dropped one set.

It is probably the surprise of the tournament so far.

In Garin, though, he’s going up a level. The Chilean’s winning percentage on clay coming into the French Open stood at 67 per cent – nearly twice what it is on hard courts.

The two played last month in the third round of Madrid. And Garin won 6-4, 6-7 (2), 6-1.  But best-of-five sets is a different story.  Only with his three wins this week has Garin upped his record to .500.

Medvedev is at 37-17 in best-of-five – a nearly 70 per cent success rate.

The over-under on total games turns into the positive at 38.5 (+112). And that feels likely.

Take Medvedev, the fresher man, in four sets (+320).

2021 French Open Odds Tracker

Diego Schwartzman vs. Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction

Many were thinking this French Open would be an opportunity for former finalist Dominic Thiem to play himself back into form (Editor’s note: It wasn’t).

But perhaps it instead is an opportunity for Diego Schwartzman to do the same.

Winning three consecutive matches, as he’s done this week is something he managed just once in 2021 before this week.

But Struff is a tricky one. He had a great 2019 season that included solid results on clay – not something you’d expect from a big man whose preferred tactics are to some to the net at the first opportunity. The 2020 season was tough. But Struff made the Munich final on clay a month ago.

Struff upset No. 7 seed Andrey Rublev in his opener, then Facundo Bagnis. And they he straight-setted the “next one” on clay – 18-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz – in the third round.

Take the German to win outright (+175). But if you’re feeling adventurous, Stuff to win in four sets (+650) could pay off, big-time.

Federico Delbonis vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

If Davidovich Fokina, a rising 21-year-old from Spain, hadn’t emptied the tank in his previous match, he might well have been the favorite in this one.

There are only five ranking spots between them (Davidovich Fokina at No. 46, Delbonis at No. 51). The Spaniard is nine years younger. And despite Delbonis’s highly successful clay-court spring (he went 18-6 and picked off some good names), the second week of a major is new territory.

Delbonis had won just three main-draw matches in 11 trips to Paris before this year  – he’s already won three in the first week this year. And he had never beaten anyone ranked higher than No. 136.

Davidovich Fokina’s problem is coming down from the high of upsetting No. 15 seed Casper Ruud in the third round . It was a marathon five-setter and a fine win. But it was his second consecutive five-setter. And both were played in tough, humid conditions.

A depleted opponent is just what Delbonis needs to make his first major quarterfinal. But pick Davidovich to win a set before it all catches up to him. (+380)

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Stephanie Myles

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