Giro d’Italia Odds, Picks, and Best Bets for Stage 11


Peter Sagan celebrating a stage win

Peter Sagan won Stage 10 of the Giro d’Italia on Tuesday and he is a contender to take Stage 11 too. Photo by @faustocoppi60 (Twitter).

  • Stage 11 of the Giro (Wednesday, October 14) is a flat stage that should be perfect for sprinters
  • Can anybody hold off Arnaud Démare in a sprint finish?
  • Stage 11 odds are intriguing if you are willing to look beyond Démare

The first week of the Giro d’Italia was sprint heavy and that was great news for Arnaud Démare. He won three stages and will almost certainly be in the mix on Wednesday.

On Tuesday Peter Sagan, who has been the bridesmaid time and time again this year in sprints, finally won his first stage of 2020. In doing so he became the 100th rider to win a stage on each grand tour.

With a true sprint expected on Stage 11, can Sagan take his momentum from Tuesday and prosper, will Démare dominate, or will a longer price on the board succeed? Let’s look carefully at the odds and consider where to find the most betting value.

Giro d’Italia Stage 11 Odds

Rider Odds
Arnaud Demare -106
Fernando Gaviria +325
Peter Sagan +550
Alvaro Jose Hodeg +900
Elia Viviani +1100
Davide Ballerini +1600
Davide Cimolai +2200
Ben Swift +2500
Juan Sebastian Molano +2800
Filippo Ganna +6600
Andrea Vendrame +8000
Rick Zabel +8000

Odds taken Oct. 13th at DraftKings

Perhaps the bigger story on Tuesday than Sagan’s win was the rash of positive COVID-19 tests detected during Monday’s rest day. Steven Kruijswijk and Michael Matthews plus the entire Jumbo-Visma and Mitchelton-Scott teams were forced to leave.

Almeida is leading Kelderman by half a minute in the overall standings, with Pello Bilbao 39 seconds behind the leader. There is unlikely to be much movement in the GC race on Stage 11.

Wednesday’s route travels from Porto Sant’Elpidio 182 kilometres to Rimini. There is one category four climb but it is far from the finish line and a group sprint is incredibly likely on a very flat stage. A similar route in the Tirreno-Adriatico in 2014 and 2015 led to victories by Mark Cavendish and Sagan.

So who are the most likely winners of Stage 11?

The Favorite

There have been four type of stages this year. Pure sprints, mountains, hybrids, and one time trial. While it is very unclear who will emerge among GC riders, and there is a question about top climbers, Démare has won the three truly flat sprint stages.

It is never as simple as picking the top sprinter. The margin is often very tight, and while he is an incredibly deserving favorite, it is unclear whether he has a better than 50% chance of winning any individual stage.

Top Contenders

Fernando Gaviria crashed on Stage 10 but didn’t think his condition would force him to abandon. A winner of five career Giro stages and the 2017 points classification, a true sprint is what he does best.

Gaviria won the Giro della Toscana this year and took three stages on the Vuelta a San Juan.

Sagan had been the biggest disappointment first in the Tour de France this year and then in the Giro before taking things into his own hands on Tuesday. Known as a sprinter, or at least an opportunistic sprinter, someone who can climb a little and contend on days that are a little more demanding that flat stages, he went on a solo break and held off the field in Stage 10.

Though betting against Sagan has been a money maker this year, he is crafty and super competitive, and certainly will be motivated for back-to-back stage victories.

2021 UEFA Champions League Odds Tracker

Longshot

Ben Swift won the 2019 National Road Race Championship and indeed a flat straightforward stage is exactly what he excels at.

Swift’s team, Ineos, lost race favorite Geraint Thomas early on at the Giro. They have refocused to concentrate on individual stages. Filippo Ganna has claimed two stages for Ineos. Swift is their best hope on Wednesday.

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Dave F.

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