If you’re looking to profit from betting on correct score markets in football, there are a variety of steps you can use to take to find the best value bets. By value, we mean when the odds that are available for a bet are bigger than you think they should be. If you want to learn how to predict correct scores in football and, more important, increase your chance of profit then read on:
To predict correct scores in football, you need to consider a range of past stats. You should look at head-to-head results, seasonal results and player-on-player stats.
Correct Score Stats
When trying to determine the likely score of a game, there are a number of stats you’ll need to know to help you on your way. We’ve outlined the stats and figures you’ll want to take a close look at if you want to predict correct scores as accurately as possible:
Head-to-Head Football Results
One of the first steps when trying to predict correct scores in football is to scrutinize past results between the two teams. If there is a distinct pattern, this may continue. However, if past head-to-heads for two teams vary, finding out why they might do so can often path the way for finding the best value correct score bets.
One of the main reasons why football results vary so much is that players change a lot. If you’re trying to make a living by predicting correct scores in football, it’s a great idea to make notes before and after the match.
Your notes might say something like, both teams’ star defenders were suspended for a match that ended 3-3, while the average score in other recent games was less than 2.5 goals. That would easily explain why there were more goals than average. You can use this information to your advantage, by predicting low-scoring matches when key defenders are playing and betting on high-scoring games when key defenders are not playing.
Of course, the opposite may apply when star strikers are missing. If the striker’s replacement is nowhere near as proficient in sticking the ball in the net, the likelihood is that the match will produce fewer goals.
Just because a team’s matches average three goals a game one season does not mean that average will continue. Again, this may be because key players are missing or have returned after a long spell on the sidelines.
A perfect example of this would be Liverpool during the 2020/21 season during which they greatly missed the services of Virgil Van Dyck. The Dutch defender masterminded Liverpool’s defence into being the meanest in the Premier League during the 2019/20 season, conceding just 33 goals, but they conceded 42 in 2020/21.
Something else you must consider when trying to predict correct scores in football matches is managerial changes. Managers have contrasting styles, with some more attack-minded and some more defence-minded. After a poor run of results, many clubs go for the opposite type of manager, and this can be a great time to go against previous head-to-head scores when the odds are in your favour.
While recent results and past head-to-heads are a good foundation for building your correct scores betting strategy, professional gamblers tend to go much deeper and carry out a player-on-player analysis.
Let’s say that Team-A has been averaging over 3.5 goals a game, mainly thanks to their lightning-fast left-winger who has been terrorising defences and averages two assists/goals a game. The problem for most teams is that they just don’t have players that are fast enough to stop him.
However, when the left-winger comes up against a fullback that is equally as fast, he struggles to make an impact on the game and his team typically score fewer goals than average. There may only be three or four teams in the league that possess such fullbacks, but pinpointing them will help you find value bets, especially if those teams are positioned much lower down the table.
Correct Score Equations
How to predict correct scores in football has become a science for some professional punters, many of whom use equations and algorithms to predict how many goals there will be in a game. This mathematical analysis is normally based on how many shots a team has and how many shots a team concede during a game to determine how open play will be.
For example, a team may averagely have six shots on target per match against teams that averagely concede four shots on target in each match. However, if the team that averagely has more shots faces a team that averagely concedes more shots on target than most teams, it stands to reason that there should be more shots and therefore more goals.
Types of Correct Score Markets in Football
Whichever way you make your predictions for correct scores in football matches, it’s important to consider what markets you can bet on.
Predicting correct scores, such as 3-2 or 3-1 can be very rewarding, but football is a tough game to tie down to such exact margins.
Many professional punters prefer to bet on markets such as under or over 2.5 goals, giving them a bigger margin for error. Of course, you can also get bigger odds for predicting results such as under 1.5 goals or over 4.5 goals.
A market that is often overlooked by amateur punters is the half-time correct score market. It’s amazing how often these throw up a pattern that you might not be expecting. Matches between two teams may produce 3.5 goals on average, but the half-time result can often have no correlation. For example, the average score at half-time may be less than a goal. Bookmakers’ odds don’t always reflect this, so snap up the value.
Making a Profit from Predicting Correct Scores in Football
While there are lots of steps you can take to improve your correct score betting in football, if you’re aiming to make a profit from your own skill and judgement, you need to be prepared to put in the hard work that’s required. That includes hours studying the form and making notes, whilst also being prepared to not have a bet after all that work if the odds aren’t in your favour.
Many punters that work other jobs full-time don’t have that time, which is why many punters seek the advice of professional football gamblers that offer their tips for free or as part of a subscription service.
Making a profit and correctly predicting correct scores in football is not easy. You need to use a range of stats to narrow down to the most likely outcome of a match. It is hard work. There is a reason that the odds on these markets are high and that’s because it can be challenging to correctly predict.